 "Iran-US set for Round 2 of talks in Geneva. Will Trump attack if they fail?")
Will there be peace or war? That’s the question on everyone’s mind as US and Iranian officials prepare to meet in Geneva today (February 17) for a second round of discussions over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
But even as US officials prep for their talks with Iran, it seems that Washington is continuing its build-up of air and naval assets in West Asia — either as a means to intimidate or to have options to strike inside the country should negotiations over its nuclear programme fail.
Round 2 of US-Iran talks
Today (February 17), Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his delegation will sit down for talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The discussions in Geneva will be mediated by Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi.
The meeting marks the latest diplomatic effort to avert US military action against Tehran and a regional war. Earlier, Witkoff and Kushner held indirect talks with Iranian delegates in Muscat, Oman, on February 6.
On arriving in Geneva, Araghchi wrote on X, “I am in Geneva with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal. What is not on the table: submission before threats.”
Ahead of today’s talks, Iran struck a conciliatory note, with Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi saying the country was willing to reach a nuclear deal if the US agreed to ease some or all of its sweeping sanctions, including restrictions targeting Iran’s oil exports, banking system, and access to the global financial network.
“We are ready to discuss this and other issues related to our programme provided that they are ready also to talk about the sanctions. Because sanctions — as we call it ‘illegal sanctions’ — those sanctions have to be also on the table,” Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC on Sunday. “We cannot accept the notion that Iran has to do certain things without the other side committing itself to do their share. It has to be give and take, that’s what compromise is all about.”
Notably, a day before the talks in Geneva, Iran held live military drills in the Strait of Hormuz. The drills, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy, were meant to address “potential security and military threats,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported, citing the Revolutionary Guard.
Trump’s continued rhetoric against Iran
Even amid the talks, Trump hasn’t dialled back his military rhetoric against Iran. On Monday, he warned Iran of the “consequences of not making a deal”.
“I’ll be involved in those talks, indirectly,” the US president told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Washington. “I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal,” Trump added.
A week back, Trump hinted at aggressive actions if no deal comes together with Iran. “Either we reach a deal, or we’ll have to do something very tough,” said the US president.
Since January, Trump has heightened US pressure on Iran, warning that his country’s military is “locked and loaded and ready to go”. “Like with Venezuela, [the US military] is ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘come to the table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal,” Trump wrote on social media on January 28.
He also warned the Islamic Republic of an attack “far worse” than the strikes he ordered against the country’s nuclear sites last June if Tehran didn’t agree to a deal to curb its nuclear programme.
“As I told Iran once before, make a deal! They didn’t, and there was ‘Operation Midnight Hammer,’ a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” he wrote on Truth Social.
US ramps up military presence
Along with his threats, Trump has also ordered a build-up of military assets in the areas around Iran, causing concern that the US would, indeed, carry out strikes if Tehran did not acquiesce to Washington’s demands.
Earlier, the Abraham Lincoln, which leads a strike group with three guided missile destroyers, carries 90 aircraft, including F-35 fighters, and 5,680 crew, was reportedly deployed to the Gulf region in late January. It has been located off the coast of Oman, around 700 km from Iran.
The US has also reportedly sent the USS Gerald R Ford, the world’s largest warship, to the West Asia, which could arrive in the region within the next three weeks.
US aircraft have also been pushed into the region; the US has deployed more F-15 and EA-18 fighter jets to the Muwaffaq Salti military base in Jordan. There’s also an increase in US cargo planes and refuelling and communications aircraft moving towards West Asia from the US and Europe.
US Air Force assets based in the United Kingdom, including refueling tankers and fighter jets, have also been redeployed closer to West Asia. Last Friday, multiple fighter aircraft were also given diplomatic clearance to enter Jordanian airspace, according to open-source air traffic communications.
Analysing the military movement, retired US Army General Jack Keane told a radio interview that he believes President Trump is inching closer to a decision on using military force against Iran. “Obviously, the president has yet to make the decision about that military option, but obviously, we can see what’s taking place. And in my mind, I believe that decision will eventually be made,” Keane said on Sunday.
He further warned that the military action against Tehran would be “much larger” than last June, speculating that any campaign would target Iranian civilian and military leadership, infrastructure, and ballistic missiles. “We’re talking about something much larger, likely than what took them, what the Israelis did in the 12-day war, but compressed and also with the United States participating as well, something that would be quite formidable, that would put the regime clearly on a pathway to regime collapse,” he said.
Military intelligence expert Justin Crump also seemed to agree with General Keane’s assessment. Crump told the BBC that the current US military preparations in West Asia show “more depth and sustainability” than its manoeuvres ahead of the seizure of former Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro in January, or the operation carrying out air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June.
Weeks-long operation against Iran in the offing
While it’s not certain that the US will strike Iran, all signs point to a possible attack. In fact, sources speaking to Reuters stated that the US military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran.
When asked about the preparations for a potentially sustained US military operation, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said: “President Trump has all options on the table with regard to Iran.” “He listens to a variety of perspectives on any given issue, but makes the final decision based on what is best for our country and national security.”
The planning underway this time is more complex, the officials told Reuters.
Only time will tell what happens next. For now, the region is on tenterhooks and hoping that Iran and the US can come to some agreement during the talks today.
With inputs from agencies
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