Iran warns of strikes on US, UK, French bases: Why that would be dangerous

Iran has formally cautioned the United States, United Kingdom and France that if they interfere with its retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel, their forces stationed in the region will be considered legitimate targets.

This announcement was transmitted through state-controlled Iranian media on Saturday and follows intensified hostilities between Israel and Iran following attacks linked to Iran’s nuclear dispute with Israel.

Western countries are now caught in a precarious position. US President Donald Trump has pledged support for Israel’s defence, and American defence officials have acknowledged the role of US forces in countering airborne threats directed toward Israeli territory.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron echoed a similar stance, confirming on Friday that France would aid Israel if Iran escalated.

Meanwhile, the British government has clarified that its forces have not been directly involved in any such support operations, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer highlighting the importance of restraint.

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The risk for Iran in executing its threat lies in the possibility of drawing Western militaries directly into the conflict, at a time when Israeli airstrikes have already imposed substantial pressure on Iranian-aligned infrastructure.

Despite this, Tehran appears intent on deterring further foreign military support for Israel.

Speaking at a UN Security Council meeting, US diplomat McCoy Pitt remarked, “No government proxy or independent actor should target American citizens, American bases or other American infrastructure in the region. The consequences for Iran would be dire.”

Where are Western forces located in the region?

The United States maintains a widespread and enduring military presence across the region. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, this includes a network of permanent and temporary facilities in no fewer than 19 locations.

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There are eight fixed bases among these, located in Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

As of mid-2025, there are an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 American service personnel stationed across the region. These troops are distributed between major hubs and forward-deployed positions that serve logistical, intelligence, naval and aerial operational purposes.

Among the most heavily manned countries are Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia — nations that host key facilities vital to Washington’s projection of power in the region.

The United Kingdom also operates several installations across the Gulf and nearby territories. British forces are based at multiple locations, including Cyprus which is home to the Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia, which are key staging grounds for RAF combat and support aircraft under Operation Shader. These bases also feature signal intelligence capabilities.

Bahrain serves as the location of the UK Naval Support Facility, serving as the Royal Navy’s primary Gulf support point, while Oman serves as the permanent joint support installation in Duqm aids maritime operations and training exercises, and it also is being developed as a key strategic anchor.

British forces also utilise the Al Udeid air base in Qatar, a central node for RAF regional command and control while RAF personnel operate from the Al Minhad air base in the United Arab Emirates.

UK forces and support staff are also present, albeit in smaller numbers, in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

France, for its part, has had a naval air station — formally named the French Military Settlement in the United Arab Emirates (IMFEAU) — in Abu Dhabi since 2009, supporting both aerial and maritime operations.

What could happen if Iran struck Western assets?

Iran’s threat raises alarms across military and diplomatic circles. Even though US officials have insisted their role is defensive, Iranian leadership appears convinced that Western powers are facilitating Israeli operations.

Likely Iranian targets include American military camps in Iraq, Gulf-based installations and possibly embassies and consulates. Tehran-backed armed groups remain active in Iraq, despite diminished activity from other Iranian proxy forces like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Given the rising tension, the United States has already taken precautionary measures, including repositioning personnel in vulnerable areas.

A serious flashpoint could emerge if an American national were to die in the ongoing conflict, whether in Israel or another hot zone. In such a case, Trump might face increased political pressure to respond militarily.

The capabilities required to destroy deeply embedded Iranian nuclear facilities — such as those at Fordow — are currently only in the possession of the United States.

While Trump campaigned on promises to avoid prolonged wars in the region, many in his political base support Israel’s strategic objectives, including the goal of confronting Tehran directly.

Escalation, however, carries far-reaching risks. If Iran’s primary strikes fail to damage well-defended Israeli targets, Tehran may turn to more vulnerable points in the Gulf region.

Past incidents serve as reminders: Iran was blamed for the 2019 drone and missile attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities and its Houthi allies successfully struck targets in the UAE in 2022.

Despite recent diplomatic efforts to ease regional hostilities, the countries that host US and allied airbases — some of whom discreetly assisted Israel’s air defense — could now find themselves under threat.

Should these nations come under fire, they may seek assistance from American and allied air power, thereby expanding the theatre of war.

What’s next: Escalation, patience, or proxy retaliation?

The future of this crisis hinges on Tehran’s next steps. A continuation of long-range attacks appears likely, though immediate success against Israel’s layered air defences is doubtful without backing from other powers, such as Russia or China — an outcome deemed improbable at this stage.

Iran may instead resort to a more patient strategy, conserving its arsenal and waiting for a more opportune moment to strike again.

This approach may involve periodic waves of drone and missile launches, each carefully timed to test or wear down Israeli and Western defences.

For Washington, this creates a dilemma. Each new round of defence support to Israel — whether in the form of air defence systems or ammunition — entangles the US deeper in a conflict Trump has sought to contain.

Not to forget, the risk of economic fallout, including surging oil prices grows with each retaliatory cycle.

With inputs from agencies