What could happen next between Iran, Pakistan? Should India be concerned?

Tensions are high between Iran and its neighbour Pakistan after both countries targeted what they called “terrorist” camps inside each other’s soil this week. Islamabad retaliated to Iran’s Tuesday strikes on two alleged bases of the militant group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan’s Balochistan. Pakistan launched attacks on “terrorist hideouts” of separatist Baloch militants in southeastern Iran based on “credible intelligence”, its foreign ministry said on Thursday (18 January). The flare-up between the two neighbours comes against the backdrop of Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza and the United States’ strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. There are concerns that the recent attacks could result in a wider conflict between Pakistan and Iran, stoking further tensions in the already volatile West Asia. Why did Iran and Pakistan trade strikes? Should India be worried? Let’s understand. Iran-Pakistan border Iran and Pakistan share an over 900-kilometre border, most of which is lawless and plagued by narcotics trafficking, smuggling and militancy. An estimated nine million ethnic Balochs live on either side of the Iran-Pakistan border, known as the Goldsmith Line, as per Indian Express. In Pakistan, they are present in the southwestern province of Balochistan, while they dwell in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province. The neighbouring Afghanistan also houses the Baloch in the north. The Baloch people in both Iran and Pakistan have held grievances against their respective states for years. “Their marginalisation in both countries in subsequent years fuelled several separatist movements for a “Greater Balochistan” nation state,” reported Indian Express. Iran and Pakistan have long accused each other of supporting or allowing some militant groups to operate in their respective territory. The insurgents use the porous border between the two nations to travel back and forth after targeting military, or, sometimes, civilians, as per the English daily. [caption id=“attachment_13633322” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Iran and Pakistan have long accused each other of supporting or allowing some militant groups to operate in their respective territory. Reuters (Representational Image)[/caption] Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice), the Sunni separatist group that Iran targeted on Tuesday, is believed to be based in Pakistan. The militant group seeking independence of the Sistan and Baluchestan province is known for targeting Iranian security forces. The Pakistani military said its Thursday strikes targeted “hideouts used by terrorist organisations namely Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan Liberation Front”. Formed in 2000, the Baluch Liberation Army, which is suspected of hiding in Iran, has launched attacks against Pakistani security forces and Chinese infrastructure projects, reported Associated Press (AP). Iran and Pakistan’s tit-for-tat strikes Iran and Pakistan’s tit-for-tat strikes might be a result of internal compulsions, according to observers. While both countries have had a volatile relationship for long, this is the first significant cross-border intrusions in recent years. As per AP, Tehran had been under immense pressure to act after the deadly bombing earlier this month claimed by the Islamic State group killed nearly 100 people at a ceremony to commemorate slain commander  Qassem Soleimani in the southeastern city of Kerman. Iran’s attack inside Pakistan came a day after it launched strikes on Iraq and Syria. Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, an international risk consultancy, told Reuters that the bombing on 3 January played a large role in Iran’s Tuesday strikes on Pakistan soil. “There’s a lot of domestic pressure to ‘do something,’ and the leadership is responding to that pressure,” he said. [caption id=“attachment_13633332” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A man looks at a television screen after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan, 18 January 2024. Reuters[/caption] As per Brew, Iran has been prodding Pakistan to address the issue of militants present near its border for years. “The missile strikes were a sign that Tehran has lost patience”, he added. Iran also has other concerns in West Asia. Tehran-backed Houthi group in Yemen has been attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea since November, saying it was avenging Israel’s attack on Hamas in Gaza. The spate of attacks have triggered concerns for the global shipping industry. The US has recently intensified strikes against Houthi positions to deter their targeting of ships in the Red Sea. Iran is backing the Palestinians in Gaza, and its proxy militant group Hezbollah is embroiled in fighting with Israel along the border with Lebanon. Domestic pressures seem to have forced the Pakistani military’s hand as well to retaliate. Pakistan is expected to hold general elections in early February. Speaking to AP, Abdullah Khan from the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies think-tank in Islamabad, said, “The government and military have been under immense pressure (since Tuesday). The public perception of a strong army is not as it used to be, so it had to respond.” Pakistan’s riposte was also to send a message to Iran and its other neighbours that it can fight back if provoked. Ejaz Haider, a Pakistan-based political analyst, told Al Jazeera that Pakistan needed to react by force due to its rivalry with India. “India has in the past aggressed against Pakistan. India is again going into an election. This incident with Iran should also be seen in the context of Pakistan’s deterrence against India,” he said. The tensions between Iran and Pakistan could be contained as both sides have signalled a desire to deescalate. China, which has close economic ties to both nations, has offered to mediate. Only time will tell if the standoff will end here or the world is going to have another war in 2024. How it could impact India India’s relations with Pakistan are strained, especially since the 2019 Pulwama attack. On the other hand, New Delhi has maintained good relations with Iran over the past few decades – a relationship viewed with concern in Islamabad, as per Indian Express. The Ministry of External Affairs reacted on Wednesday after Iran’s strikes in Pakistan, saying it was a matter between those two countries. However, New Delhi also said that it understands “actions that countries take in their self defence.” According to strategic affairs expert C Raja Mohan, it was “natural” for India to support Iran as New Delhi had made similar justifications after carrying out surgical strikes inside Pakistan in 2019. “India has long maintained that Pakistan harbours terrorists. Iran is simply making the same claim. It is but natural that India will support Iran in this case,” Indian Express quoted him as saying. Mohan said that Pakistan’s quick response was a message for India too. “For Pakistan, this is as much a message to India and the Pakistan Taliban as it is to Iran. With its quick and strong response, Pakistan hopes to possibly deter India from carrying out cross-border attacks in the future,” the expert said, as per the English daily. The instability in West Asia is also worrying India, which heavily relies on fuel shipments from the region, especially from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The targeting of its shipping in the Arabian Sea pose a threat to India’s commercial interests. New Delhi has already deployed warships to deter further attacks. About 80 per cent of India’s goods trade with Europe, estimated at nearly $14 billion a month, usually goes via the Red Sea. India also sends goods through this route to the US’ East Coast, Africa and West Asia, as per The Times of India.  China’s increasing clout in the Gulf and its presence in Balochistan are some other concerns for India. Mohan, who is also a contributing editor for Indian Express, wrote for the English daily that the “fragility of the Baloch frontier connecting South Asia and the Gulf, China’s strategic presence in Balochistan, and Beijing’s growing role in the Gulf are of deep concern to India. Delhi has traditionally stayed neutral in the conflicts within the Middle East (West Asia). But Delhi might find it increasingly hard to do as India’s economic and security stakes rise in the volatile Middle East.” With inputs from agencies