After Raisi’s death, speculation over ayatollah's succession: How the supreme leaders became all-powerful in Iran

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash has spurred speculations about the successor of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Raisi was seen as a frontrunner to take over the Islamic Republic after the death of the 85-year-old.

However, as Raisi is no longer in the picture now, there is uncertainty about Khamenei’s successor. This is likely to kickstart a power struggle between hardline factions in Iran over who will replace the aged ayatollah.

Amid concerns about Khamenei’s health, the question about his replacement gains more significance. Iran’s supreme leader is the ultimate centre of power in the country.

But how did ayatollahs become the most powerful leaders? We will explain.

Iran’s revolution of 1979

The return of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in February 1979, after 14 years in exile, was a watershed moment in Iran’s history. By then, Iran’s ruler Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi had fled the country.

Khomeini, who was born in a family of religious leaders, was an outspoken critic of the shah who had close ties with the West.

As anger against Pahlavi’s Western policies and modern reforms grew in Iran, Khomeini attacked the shah’s programmes, according to a History.com report. He called for overthrowing the shah and establishing an Islamic state in Iran.

In 1963, the shah imprisoned Khomeini, a popular devout Shi’ite cleric, leading to riots. The cleric was expelled from Iran in November 1964.

Khomeini spent his yearslong exile in Turkey, Iraq and France, as per Al Jazeera. Even while he was away from Iran, Khomeini, who was known by the high Shi’ite title “ayatollah”, or “sign of God”, kept up the pressure against the Iran rulers, inciting his followers back home.

As disgruntlement against the shah grew, he grew more oppressive, triggering mass support for Khomeini. In 1978, massive protests against the shah broke out in major cities across Iran, as per the History.com report.

As the common public joined the radical students, Khomeini pressed for the immediate ouster of Pahlavi. In December of that year, Iran’s army revolted, resulting in the shah fleeing the country on 16 January 1979.

Just weeks later, 78-year-old Khomeini returned to Iran. Commenting on his homecoming, Mohamad Marandi, a specialist in Iran-US relations at Tehran University, told Al Jazeera, “It was a turning point in modern Iranian history.”

Amid heightened religious fervour, Khomeini, who was hailed as the leader of the Iranian Revolution, transformed Iran into a religious state.

ALSO READ: Ebrahim Raisi death: What happens next in Iran’s politics?

How Iran’s supreme leader became all-powerful

The post of Supreme Leader holds massive power and authority in Iran. Khomeini was the first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s supreme leader has the ultimate power, acting as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The leader appoints the heads of all military branches and the head of the judiciary.

The occupant of the post also controls Iran’s intelligence and security operations and has the power to declare war or peace. The Supreme Leader has the final say in deciding the policies of the country and dealing with the outside world.

The leader also makes several key appointments in the country, including the chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran has had only two Supreme Leaders since the birth of the Islamic Republic. After Khomeini died in 1989, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took over the high-profile post.

He has maintained a tight grip on Iran’s politics and foreign affairs. Khamenei has taken a hardline stance against the West, especially the United States and has often called for the elimination of the State of Israel.

In 1981 when he was Iran’s president, Khamenei vowed to crush “deviation, liberalism, and American-influenced leftists”, reported BBC.

His rise to the post of Supreme Leader was ensured by changes to the Constitution.

Iran’s constitution states that the Supreme Leader has to be an ayatollah, a senior Shia religious figure, noted BBC.

Ali Khamenei, who was involved in protests against the shah and had also gone to jail at the time, was picked by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body, to be the new Supreme Leader in 1989.

According to BBC, as Khamenei did not have the rank among Shia clerics of marja-e taqlid (source of emulation) or grand ayatollah, an amendment was made in the Constitution saying that the Supreme Leader had to show “Islamic scholarship”.

With this, Khamenei became eligible to take over the post of Iran’s supreme leader. The Constitution was also changed to abolish the post of prime minister and to accord greater authority to the president, BBC reported.

Khamenei was also elevated to “ayatollah” status from the clerical rank of Hojjat al-Islam.

Questions over Ali Khamenei’s successor

Raisi was believed to be Khamenei’s preference as his successor. The Supreme Leader is reported to be against his son Mojtaba’s candidature as he does not want to promote hereditary leadership, as per a South China Morning Post (SCMP) report.

As per Reuters, Khamenei’s objection to hereditary rule would also eliminate the candidacy of the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder – Ali Khomeini, who is in Najaf, Iraq.

The other name doing rounds is Alireza Arafi, who is currently vying for the role of the chairman of the Assembly of Experts, which will appoint the new supreme leader after Khamenei’s death. However, he is not seen as a candidate for Iranian presidency due to a perceived lack of charisma and earlier resistance from key hardline lobbies in Tehran, according to SCMP.

“For a long time now, the succession discussion in Iran has been that it will be either Mojtaba or someone else,” Vali Nasr, a former senior adviser at the US State Department, told SCMP.

After Khamenei indicated he preferred someone else, “the only name in the ‘someone else’ category was Raisi”. “Now there is no name in that category,” he added.

Speaking to Reuters, a former Iranian official said that prominent actors like Revolutionary Guards and influential clerics in Qom, an important centre for religious studies in the Islamic Republic, are now likely to ramp up efforts to “shape the process by which the next supreme leader is picked.”

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said “none but a handful at the top likely know how much of the Raisi-as-heir narrative had a basis in reality”.

“But if this was the plan, Raisi’s death introduces great uncertainty in the succession,” he said, as per Reuters. 

With inputs from agencies