Iowa caucus: The definitive guide to the first contest of 2024 US election

The Iowa caucus is set to begin on Monday evening. The caucus has served as the starting flag for every race for the White House for decades. However, this year things are slightly different. But what is the Iowa caucus? How does it work? Why is it important? Let’s take a closer look: What is it? How does it work? First, let’s briefly look at how the Democrats and Republicans nominate their candidates for president. To win his or her party’s nomination for president, a candidate has to win a certain number of their party’s delegates – aka the ‘magic number’. They amass delegates through primaries and caucuses. Primaries are relatively straightforward – the state holds polls in which party candidates run for the nomination. Voters of each party usually vote in their primaries. However, some states allow independents and ‘crossover voters’ – that is from the other party – to vote in the primaries. After the votes are tallied, a winner is declared. The winner of a primary then gets the state’s assigned delegates – either in proportion to their margin of victory or winner-take-all depending on the state system. Most states in the Union hold primaries. However, some also hold caucuses – which are a little more complicated than primaries.

A caucus itself is nothing more than a gathering of people with a shared interest or goal.

The Guardian quoted David Yepsen, a giant of Iowa political journalism, as calling it a “neighbourhood meeting.” While primaries are run by the states, caucuses are organised by the parties themselves, according to Sky. They can occur at schools, churches, community centres. [caption id=“attachment_13616952” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Donald Trump is heavily favoured to win Iowa. AP[/caption] Tom Beaumont of The Associated Press told the newspaper over 1,600 such meetings are slated to occur today – “one for every precinct in the state”. While some primaries allow voters from either party to participate, caucuses are limited to those who are registered party members. After people congregate at a place, they then begin discussing the candidates themselves and the issues with their friends and neighbours. Some people backing a particular candidate even stand up and give speeches on their behalf, as per Sky. Then, after everyone has had their say, attendees write the candidate that they wish to support on a piece of paper, as per The Guardian. This piece of paper is given to the caucus chair. The chair then tallies the votes and sends the information to the party. The party then tallies the results and releases the information in a few hours. Why is it important? Because making a first impression counts. The winner of the caucus, by dint of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation position on the calendar, gets a huge publicity boost. This in turn helps the candidate get more attention from voters in other states, and equally importantly, party donors who write the big cheques.

Even those who perform well and exceed expectations receive a fillip.

They also indicate to voters in other states, fairly or unfairly, which candidates are suitable to be nominated and have momentum (or the “Big Mo” as candidate George HW Bush called it after winning the 1980 caucuses) heading into the next contests. However, the stragglers’ campaigns are usually left on life support. This year, Republicans and Democrats have very different attitudes towards Iowa. While both are set to hold caucuses on Monday, only the Republican event will have an immediate, binding impact on the presidential race. In a departure from previous years, the Democratic caucuses will be held only to conduct administrative party business and to start the process of choosing delegates to the national conventions. Iowa Democrats will express their preferences for their party’s presidential nominee through a mail-in voting process, the results of which will not be known until March. Thus, for Democrats, nothing is at stake, since the 2024 caucuses will have no bearing on the presidential race. But for Republicans, even though Iowa accounts for a fraction of the Republican delegates up for grabs, it is nevertheless important for candidates to perform well. Interestingly, Iowa wasn’t always the first caucus in the Union. “Iowa got its spot by historical accident,” The New York Times reported. This occurred after Iowa Democrats in 1972, reeling from the disastrous 1968 convention in Chicago, decided to hold their caucus to give voters more control over the eventual nominee than party bosses. Iowa Republicans soon followed in 1976. The importance of Iowa was reinforced by the candidacy of Jimmy Carter, who would go on to become president. “The power of going first thus clearly demonstrated,” the NYT reported, “The Iowa legislature passed a law requiring the state to continue scheduling its caucuses before any others.” [caption id=“attachment_13616962” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Nikki Haley is expected to take second place in Iowa. AP[/caption] However, Iowa’s pride of place has long been under the scanner given the fact that it is disproportionately white and rural as compared to the rest of America. Interestingly, the Democrats fare far better in recent times when it comes to Iowa picking their nominee. Al Gore, John Kerry and Obama all won the Iowa caucuses – and would go on to be the Democratic nominee in 2000, 2004 and 2008.

Obama, of course, would win the presidency.

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Pete Buttigieg, who won in 2020, eventually dropped out of the race. Republicans have had a far tougher time when it comes to Iowa choosing their nominee. For Republicans, the last winner of Iowa who won the presidency was George W Bush in 2000. All the other Iowa winners – Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Ted Cruz in 2016 for the Republicans failed to become the Republican nominee for president. What’s likely to happen? Donald Trump is heavily favoured to win Iowa – and the former president himself has set expectations sky high. The final Iowa poll by the Des Moines Register/NBC put Trump at a staggering nearly 48 per cent support. Trump on Sunday begged his supporters Sunday to brave frigid temperatures and deliver him a decisive victory in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, saying their vote would help bring to Washington the retribution he has repeatedly promised if he returns to the White House. “These caucuses are your personal chance to score the ultimate victory over all of the liars, cheaters, thugs, perverts, frauds, crooks, freaks, creeps and other quite nice people,” Trump told the audience. “The Washington swamp has done everything in its power to take away your voice. But tomorrow is your time to turn on them and to say and speak your mind and to vote.” “You can’t sit home,” Trump said.

“If you’re sick as a dog, you say ‘Darling, I gotta make it.’ Even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it.”

Trump, this time, seems to have a much more formidable turnout machine than he did in 2020 and 2016. “In 2016, they didn’t really have an organisation,” Jimmy Centers, an Iowa Republican consultant unaffiliated with any campaign told CNN. “They were doing it based off of name ID and the sizzle, if you will, that he brought to the race. They are very sophisticated now.” [caption id=“attachment_13616992” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Republican presidential candidate former president Donald Trump has implored his supporters to turn up. AP[/caption] “The problem I have with Trump is I like his ideas,” businesswoman Sharon Mancero told CNN. “(But) the way he executes them — and him putting himself first all the time and his boisterous personality — falls on deaf ears with me. He’s become nails on chalkboard.” Mancero told the outlet she is supporting Nikki Haley – who is in a distant second with support from 20 per cent but is thought to be coming on. “It’s been 11 months, and it comes down to tomorrow,” Haley said of the vote on Sunday. She repeated her frequent call to GOP voters to elect her as a “new generational leader that leaves the negativity and the baggage behind and focuses on the solutions of the future.” “The fellas are scared. I’m telling you,” Haley supporters on Saturday as per CNN. “You can see our numbers going up in the polls. Americans just want to see if it’s possible. … This starts with Iowa. Y’all know how to do this. You take this responsibly,” she said. Ron DeSantis, who many in the GOP establishment thought would be their salvation, is nipping on Haley’s heels with support from 16 per cent of respondents. “With our folks, they’re committed, they’re gonna be there,” DeSantis said on CNN’s “State of the Union,” noting that the Republican calendar doesn’t end with Iowa. “We’re going to have a good night.” Joel Rudman, a physician from Florida told CNN DeSantis was a ‘great man’ who inspired him to successfully run for office. Rudman has flown down to Iowa to caucus for DeSantis. “I’ve got to be honest, I wish I could strip down here because I have a Trump shirt on,” Rudman told the outlet. “I used to be a Trump supporter. I still love President Trump. I voted for him twice. It’s just in this election, I think we have a better choice, I think people need to look at results.” [caption id=“attachment_13617002” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Florida governor Ron DeSantis is fighting to keep his campaign viable. AP[/caption] This year, Iowa is essentially a race for number 2. Beaumont told The Guardian, “Donald Trump remains the dominant frontrunner [and] the race is essentially for second place. Nikki Haley is in the race for second place in Iowa. Should Haley beat Ron DeSantis, that would almost certainly signal the end of the DeSantis campaign and provide a lift to Haley, who is stronger than any other [non-Trump] candidate in New Hampshire.” Trump, meanwhile, has continued picking up support from Republicans who’d remained on the sidelines. North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, who ran for the GOP nomination himself but failed to catch fire, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio endorsed him Sunday. In picking Trump, Rubio passed over DeSantis, the governor of his home state, and Haley, who endorsed Rubio at a crucial moment in his own unsuccessful 2016 presidential campaign.

Some voters, too, were waiting until the last minute to make up their minds.

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Judy Knowler, 64, of Peosta, had hoped to see Haley in person to help her make up her mind. “I have one foot in Nikki’s camp but we’ll see,” she said in Dubuque. “It’s an opportunity most Americans don’t get to be this close in person.” After his rally, Trump dropped by a Casey’s convenience store in Waukee with Burgum, where he picked up pizzas that a store worker said would be “the best you’ll ever have.” He then headed to a firehouse, where he passed out the pizza, and chatted with a group of first responders about their trucks, posed for photos, and ate a slice. “This is good pizza, by the way,” he said. With inputs from agencies