Has India really stopped buying oil from Russia as Trump claims?

Speaking to reporters in Washington on Saturday, United States President Donald Trump said: “I understand that India is no longer going to be buying oil from Russia. That’s what I heard, I don’t know if that’s right or not. That is a good step. We will see what happens.”

The comment is Trump’s latest in a slew of remarks against India’s purchasing of Russian crude oil.

Trump has launched a campaign of economic pressure against countries continuing to engage with Russia, threatening tariffs and penalties as leverage to force a resolution to the war in Ukraine.

Days earlier, his administration announced a sweeping set of trade measures that would affect around 70 nations, including India.

As part of this, a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods entering the United States took effect, alongside a separate penalty related to purchases of Russian oil and military hardware.

Trump also warned that countries buying Russian oil could face tariffs as high as 100 per cent if Moscow does not agree to a peace deal by mid-August.

His stance has raised concerns about the potential impact on global markets, given India’s role as the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude since 2022.

In a strongly worded post on Truth Social, Trump lashed out at India’s trade practices and its reliance on Russian defence and energy sectors. “Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of energy, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to stop the killing in Ukraine — All things not good!”

In another comment, he took an even sharper tone: “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way…”

The question: Has India really stopped buying Russian oil?

In response to speculation, Indian officials and sources have sought to clarify the country’s position. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has not confirmed any change in policy and has made it clear that energy sourcing decisions remain based on price and national interest.

MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, when asked about reports suggesting Indian oil firms had stopped taking Russian crude, said during his weekly briefing, “We take decisions based on the price at which oil is available in the international market and depending on the global situation at that time. As for the specifics of your particular question, I am not aware of it. I don’t have details of these specifics.”

Privately, an MEA source echoed this line, telling ANI that energy decisions are grounded in economic realities: “India’s energy purchases are driven by national interests and market forces. We do not have any reports of Indian oil firms halting Russian imports.”

Reports of a temporary pause by state refiners

While there has been no formal announcement from New Delhi, multiple reports suggest some state-owned refiners may have temporarily paused buying Russian oil in the past week.

According to Reuters, India’s key state refiners — including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemical Ltd — did not seek Russian crude cargoes recently.

This development comes amid narrowing discounts on Russian oil and increased warnings from Washington about the risks of continuing purchases.

These refiners, which control over 60 per cent of India’s combined refining capacity of 5.2 million barrels per day, frequently purchase Russian oil on a “delivered” basis, meaning suppliers handle shipping and insurance.

When they did not place orders, they turned instead to the spot market, buying mostly West Asian and West African crude grades such as Abu Dhabi’s Murban.

Notably, the country’s private refiners — Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy — are the largest individual buyers of Russian crude in India, but the state-owned companies dominate the overall refining landscape.

Whether these pauses represent a longer-term shift or merely a short-term adjustment remains unclear.

India’s reliance on Russian crude since 2022

India became the world’s biggest importer of Russian seaborne oil after Europe stopped most purchases in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

This marked a significant pivot in global energy flows: before 2022, Europe had been Russia’s largest oil buyer.

India now sources nearly 2 million barrels per day from Russia — roughly 35 per cent of its total oil imports — amounting to over $50 billion worth of purchases in the 2024-25 fiscal year, according to official data.

The range of Russian crude reaching Indian shores is wide. Imports include Urals from Russia’s western ports, ESPO and Sokol from the Pacific, and some grades from the Arctic.

Urals, the largest Russian export grade, is particularly reliant on India; up to 70 per cent of its exports are absorbed by Indian refiners.

Russia’s state oil giant Rosneft has also become deeply intertwined with India’s refining sector, holding a significant stake in one of the country’s largest refineries, which further cements the commercial relationship.

Why purchasing Russian oil is not illegal

Officials and industry sources defending India’s Russian oil imports underline that the purchases are not only lawful but beneficial for global energy stability.

Sources speaking to ANI stressed that Russian oil has never been sanctioned outright by the US or the European Union.

Instead, a price-cap mechanism was introduced by the G7 and EU to restrict Moscow’s revenues while ensuring crude continued to flow into world markets.

India has adhered to this framework, ensuring all purchases stayed below the cap — currently $60 per barrel — while securing affordable energy supplies.

The same sources argued that India’s strategy helped prevent a worse crisis: “Had India not absorbed discounted Russian crude combined with OPEC+ production cuts of 5.86 mb/d, global oil prices could have surged well beyond the March 2022 peak of US $137/bbl, intensifying inflationary pressures worldwide.”

This perspective paints India not as an outlier, but as a stabilising force in global oil markets, especially at a time when other buyers, including the EU, continue to import Russian-origin energy in other forms.

For instance, during this period, the EU remained the largest buyer of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), accounting for 51 per cent of exports, with China and Japan following.

How Moscow could retaliate

Analysts warn that any sharp reduction in Indian demand for Russian oil could provoke a major response from Moscow.

Russia’s exports to India are so vital that they now make up a substantial share of the Kremlin’s revenues.

Experts at JP Morgan have cautioned that if India’s imports were disrupted, Moscow could retaliate by closing the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline from Kazakhstan.

This pipeline is critical for US energy majors like Chevron and Exxon, who have significant investments in Kazakh production.

Any closure of CPC would create another severe supply shock, reverberating across the global oil market.

How India would manage without Russian oil

If India were to scale back or halt Russian purchases, the adjustment would be complicated and costly. Refiners would have to increase imports of US and West Asian crude or reduce refining activity. Either path could send ripples through the global economy.

A cut in refining runs would immediately tighten diesel supply.

India is a significant exporter of refined fuels, especially diesel, to Europe. Reduced output in India would likely push European diesel prices higher.

Switching suppliers on a large scale would also require logistical and contractual adjustments.

India’s refiners have integrated Russian crude into their operations over the past two years; unwinding that flow would not happen overnight.

Meanwhile, private refiners — which account for a large chunk of Russian crude purchases — have not publicly signalled any change.

Donald Trump’s claim that India has stopped buying Russian oil remains unverified.

With inputs from agencies