How many Indians are dying of heatwave? Why has getting reliable data been a problem?

India is burning up.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a ‘red’ alert for Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Madhya Pradesh.

A red alert implies a “very high likelihood” of people developing “heat illness and heat stroke” and calls for “extreme care” for vulnerable people.

This comes just a day after temperature crossed 50 degrees Celsius in Rajasthan’s Churu and Haryana’s Sirsa and settled nine notches above normal in Delhi.

The IMD said relief from the heatwave could come after 30 May.

But how many Indians are dying of heatwave? And why is reliable data such a problem?

Let’s take a closer look:

How many Indians are dying of heatwave?

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Livemint quoted data from the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) as showing that India has recorded 60 heat-related deaths since 1 March.

Across the country, 32 people have died due of heatstroke and another 28 of suspected heatstroke.

According to government data, two people in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan’s Kota died on 22 May died of suspected heatstroke.

Since 1 March, there have been 16,344 suspected heatstroke cases.

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22 May alone witnessed 486 suspected cases of heatstroke.

However, some think the real numbers are likely far higher.

“During the heat spells, the relative humidity in coastal areas over east India was well over 50 per cent and over northwest India, around 20-30 per cent. Humid heat can have very severe health impacts and we fear that a large number of people may have been impacted,” a senior IMD official said on condition of anonymity told Hindustan Times.

Experts explain why this is so.

Dileep Mavalankar, head of the Indian Institute of Public Health (IIPH), Gandhinagar, told the Hindustan Times, “There are two types of heatwave deaths – exertional, which is caused when one exerts in direct sunlight and their body heats up. They are not able to cool down by sweating and then they die. Only 10 per cent of heatwave deaths are such exertional deaths. The non-exertional deaths happen among the vulnerable, the old, sick, infants who are not able to cool down even at night, their kidneys and heart start failing following dehydration. These people may not have access to cooling at home and they can die anywhere, even at home, since it’s not related to exertion. These are not categorised as heat strokes and are hence, possibly not counted as heat deaths at all.”

“In April last year, an intense humid heatwave hit India. While the total number of deaths related to that heatwave is unknown, it’s likely hundreds or even thousands of people would have died. In Europe, which is less hot and has a less exposed population, 70,000 deaths were linked to high temperatures in a single year,”  Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in Climate Science at Imperial College London, told Hindustan Times earlier_._

They say the difficulty is how to accurately diagnose such deaths.

“It is very difficult to define the death due to heatwaves, if a person has died due to exhaustion. Nonetheless, we keep writing to the states to take measures,” a government official told Hindustan Times.

“The diagnosis of heatstroke deaths is a challenging process and cannot be done by any doctor. Only experts can identify the issue,” an official told Livemint.

Why is getting reliable data such a problem?

Because different agencies seem to count heatwave deaths differently.

According to Factly.in, the Ministry of Earth Sciences reported 6,751 heatwave deaths between 2009 and 2022.

However, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), counted 11,090 deaths during the same timeframe.

The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), meanwhile, in its annual Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India (ADSI) report pegged the number of deaths due to heat strokes at 15,020 for the same period.

Government officials say agencies are now taking steps to get a more accurate count.

As per Livemint, the NCDC has established Integrated Health Information Platform (IHIP) to record cases and deaths from heatstroke.

Doctors at 120 government hospitals in 21 states will now upload data directly on this platform to aid public health policy makers make informed decisions.

A senior official said this would soon be upgraded to electronic surveillance.

“The new suspected heatstroke cases and deaths are reported every 24 hours, which is updated by the states/UTs across the country on a centralised platform while cumulative figures are since 1 March,” another official added.

Still, some say that isn’t enough.

A piece in Factly.in argued that the inconsistencies in data highlight the necessity for standardised and accurate reporting mechanisms.

“Gaps in data collection, including specific types of heat-related illnesses, and standardisation of definitions highlight the importance of enhancing surveillance and reporting systems. Improving data quality and consistency is essential for better understanding the true burden of heat-related illnesses and implementing effective preventive measures,” the piece argued.

It said that given that heatwaves are likely to only increase in frequency, duration and intensity in the years to come, these shortfalls need to be addressed immediately.

India grapples with scorching heat

India has been grappling with unusually high temperatures this summer, and the weather department has said “heat wave to severe heat wave” conditions are likely to continue in several parts, including the capital, through Wednesday.

India declares a heat wave when the maximum temperature of a region is 4.5 C to 6.4 C higher than usual, while a severe heat wave is declared when the maximum temperature is 6.5 C higher than normal or more.

On Tuesday, at least three weather stations in Delhi recorded maximum temperatures of 49 degrees Celsius or more. Mungeshpur and Narela in Delhi clocked 49.9 degrees followed by Najafgarh at 49.8 degrees Celsius, the IMD said.

This was the highest maximum temperature recorded in the capital this season. However, Mungeshpur and Narela weather stations came up in 2022 and have records only for the last three years.

IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has attributed the heatwave conditions over northwest and central India to the absence of western disturbances during the latter half of May.

Western disturbances are extra-tropical weather systems formed over the Mediterranean Sea that move from the west to the east.

The deadly heatwave is testing power grids and leading to water shortages in parts of the country.

According to the Central Water Commission, water storage in 150 major reservoirs in India dropped to just 24 per cent of their live storage last week, exacerbating water shortages in many states and significantly affecting hydropower generation.

The Maharashtra irrigation department said that the water stock in Jayakwadi dam in the drought-prone Marathwada region stood at a mere 5.19 per cent of its capacity on Monday after recording an evaporation loss of 1.15 MCM (million cubic metres) in a single day due to the heat.

The intense heat has already driven India’s power demand to 239.96 gigawatts, the highest so far this season, with air conditioners and coolers in homes and offices running at full capacity.

Experts anticipate that power demand could rise even further and surpass the all-time high of 243.27 GW recorded in September 2023.

Severe heatwaves have impacted a large number of people in parts of India for three consecutive years, affecting health, water availability, agriculture, power generation, and other sectors of the economy.

With inputs from agencies