India–China reset, Russia’s role, expansion: Things to watch at SCO Summit in Tianjin

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in China today (31 August) for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit. This is Modi’s first trip to China since 2018. He held a bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping in the port city of Tianjin.

The SCO summit will take place from August 31 to September 1.

Modi’s visit comes against the backdrop of rising tensions between India and the United States over President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. The US president has imposed a 25 per cent levy on Indian goods, plus an additional 25 per cent on India for buying Russian oil. New Delhi has dismissed these measures as “unfair, unjust and unreasonable,” pointing to what it calls the hypocrisy of the US-led West continuing to trade with Russia.

But what do we need to watch for?

Let’s take a closer look:

India–China reset?

A key question is whether the SCO will provide a platform for India and China to reset ties. Modi and Xi last met in Russia’s Kazan in October 2024 during a BRICS summit. Relations, which hit a low point after the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, have been gradually improving.

Much has changed since July 2024, when Modi pointedly skipped the SCO summit , citing the need to attend India’s Parliament session—a move widely seen as a snub. Since then, senior Indian officials including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have all visited China.

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The two countries have taken confidence-building steps: disengagement in Demchok and Depsang, India resuming visas for Chinese citizens, restarting the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, and exploring the resumption of direct flights.

Observers will watch closely for signals from the Modi–Xi bilateral —whether in body language, tone, or any shift in official statements. Modi’s remarks, as well as the language of the joint communiqué, will be scrutinised. India had previously refused to sign the communiqué in July after the SCO declined to condemn the Pahalgam terror attack, which New Delhi blames on Pakistan.

Russia’s role and connectivity

Russia, squeezed by Western sanctions since the Ukraine war, may use the SCO to push for alternative payment mechanisms. Moscow could also seek new energy deals within the bloc, which accounts for a large share of global resources and about 40 per cent of the world’s population.

“The SCO has become something of a Putin–Xi show,” Temur Umarov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin told RFE/RL. “It’s less about the summit itself and more about the meetings on the sidelines.”

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China is also expected to use the forum to promote its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a signature project of Xi. India has consistently objected to the BRI on national security grounds. The challenge for New Delhi is whether it can oppose the BRI while backing alternative projects such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Chabahar Port.

Expansion questions

The SCO now includes 10 permanent members—Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan—after Tehran joined in 2023 and Belarus in 2024. The bloc also counts 16 dialogue and observer partners, including Cambodia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Turkey.

Will the SCO expand further? Observers are watching to see if China pushes for Armenia and Azerbaijan to join, and how India responds.

Experts note that while the SCO began as a security and counterterrorism platform, its remit has expanded to economic and military cooperation. “China and Russia are both collaborators and competitors,” said Luca Anceschi, professor of Eurasian Studies at the University of Glasgow. “But as we see in Central Asia, they are collaborating far more than they are competing.”

“There is also a shared set of authoritarian-friendly values emerging in the region that may make life easier for Central Asian regimes,” he added.

Yet others believe the SCO still lacks a clear identity.

“The SCO is still an organisation that is looking for an identity,” Manoj Kewalramani of the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore told Al Jazeera. “At this point, the identity they seem to be working out is indivisible security—that security for one cannot come at the cost of another.”

He contrasted this with NATO’s bloc-based collective security, noting that the SCO’s vision is also an implicit argument to the US: “You are a major power. We are major powers. You must respect our interests, at least in our neighbourhood.”

Ukraine and trade tensions with the US

The Ukraine war continues to loom large over the SCO.

Trump in recent times has grown frustrated with Putin, whom he had earlier praised as a ‘brilliant’ and ‘strong’ over the Ukraine war. Trump had vowed to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office.

Recently, Trump adviser Peter Navarro accused India of funding Russia’s “war machine” through its crude oil purchases. India has maintained that dialogue and diplomacy are the only way to resolve the conflict.

The Kremlin has said nations should be free to choose their trading partners. China, meanwhile, has sided with India in criticising US tariffs, calling Washington a “bully.”

Talks between New Delhi and Washington over a trade deal remain stalled, largely over agriculture and dairy protections. Many analysts see Trump’s tariffs as a negotiating tactic, born of frustration with India’s refusal to yield.

Washington has also pressed Beijing to cut Russian oil imports, with Trump threatening secondary tariffs on China.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Tianjin on Sunday for a rare four-day visit, receiving a red-carpet welcome from senior Chinese officials.

At the same time, the US and China are negotiating their own tariff truce. The two sides agreed to a 90-day pause earlier this month in Geneva, and Trump has said he is “very close” to striking a deal with Xi before the year ends.

All this raises the question: will the SCO sharpen its rhetoric against the West on tariffs and Ukraine?

“The one thing they’re going to talk about is the United States—its policies, its tariffs,” Sushant Singh, lecturer in South Asian Studies at Yale University, told News18.

Washington, which has criticised India’s ties with both Russia and China, will be watching closely for signs of a deeper rapprochement between New Delhi and Beijing.

With inputs from agencies