 "India, Canada expel top diplomats: How did the 2 countries get here? What comes next?")
The proverbial knives are out between India and Canada. The long, simmering dispute between the two has taken centre stage once again with both sides expelling diplomats and trading barbs over the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist that resided in Surrey, a Vancouver suburb.
The rift between India and Canada was out in the open on Monday (October 14) when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) had “clear and compelling evidence” that agents of the Indian government are involved in activities threatening public safety, including clandestine operations and coercion targeting South Asian Canadians.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs refuted these charges, calling them “preposterous imputations”, adding that they ascribe them to the political agenda of the Trudeau Government that is centred around vote bank politics”.
Following this, both sides expelled one another’s diplomats and it seems that the ties are on the brink of being irreparable. But how did things reach this point?
What’s the latest?
On Monday (October 14), Canadian PM Justin Trudeau reignited the diplomatic spat with India when he said in a news conference that the RCMP had uncovered “clear and compelling evidence” that Indian government agents have engaged, and continue to engage, in activities that threaten public safety.
"credible & imminent threats to life..with members of the South Asian community, and specifically members of the pro-Khalistan movement", as Canada blames Indian diplomats for collecting data. pic.twitter.com/1U3p7a5uqV
— Sidhant Sibal (@sidhant) October 14, 2024
“I think it is obvious that the government of India made a fundamental error in thinking that they could engage in supporting criminal activity against Canadians, here on Canadian soil. Whether it be murders or extortion or other violent acts, it is absolutely unacceptable,” Trudeau said in his news conference. “No country, particularly not a democracy that upholds the rule of law, can accept this fundamental violation of its sovereignty.”
#WATCH | Ottawa: Canadian PM Justin Trudeau says, "As the RCMP commissioner stated earlier they have clear and compelling evidence that agents of the Government of India have engaged in and continue to engage in activities that pose a significant threat to public safety. This… pic.twitter.com/GslZkaFBRP
— ANI (@ANI) October 14, 2024
Global Affairs Canada, Canada’s foreign affairs department, then announced that six Indian diplomats and consular officials were being expelled from the country “in relation to a targeted campaign against Canadian citizens by agents linked to the Government of India”. One of those being expelled was India’s high commissioner to Canada — Sanjay Kumar Verma .
Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly in a statement later said that the expelled Indian officials were tied to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. “The decision to expel these individuals was made with great consideration and only after the RCMP gathered ample, clear and concrete evidence which identified six individuals as persons of interest in the Nijjar case,” she said.
India, on the other hand, rejected Trudeau’s remarks as “preposterous” and said it was part of the Trudeau government’s “political agenda” which centred around vote-bank politics. “We have no faith in the current Canadian Government’s commitment to ensure their security. Therefore, the Government of India has decided to withdraw the High Commissioner and other targeted diplomats and officials,” it said in the statement, released Monday.
The MEA then summoned Canada’s Acting High Commissioner Stewart Wheeler for an explanation. After exiting India’s South Block, Wheeler said, “Canada has provided credible, irrefutable evidence of ties between agents of the Government of India and the murder of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil. Now, it is time for India to live up to what it said it would do and look into all those allegations. It is in the interest of both our countries and the people of our countries to get to the bottom of this. Canada stands ready to cooperate with India.”
Later, India expelled six Canadian diplomats, including Wheeler, and asked them to leave the country by October 19. New Delhi has also stated that “it reserves the right to take further steps in response to these latest efforts of the Canadian government to concoct allegations against Indian diplomats”.
But how did we get here?
The dispute erupting between India and Canada stems from the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar , a Canadian citizen, who has been designated by India as terrorist. The 45-year-old, who has been a vocal supporter of the Khalistan movement , was shot dead on June 18, 2023, outside a Sikh temple.
Months later, in September, Trudeau announced in Parliament that Canadian authorities were investigating “credible allegations of a potential link” between Indian government agents and the killing of Nijjar. It was then announced that a “top Indian diplomat” was expelled.
India vehemently denied the allegations that it was involved in Nijjar’s killing, calling them “absurd”. It also accused Nijjar of being involved in “terrorism”. New Delhi, in turn, also asked Ottawa to reduce its diplomatic presence in India and even suspended issuing new visas for Canadians.
These frosty ties came to the fore when Trudeau met PM Narendra Modi last September at the G20 Summit , which India was hosting in New Delhi. The Canadian PM then said that Canada would always defend “freedom of expression” while acting against hatred.
New Delhi then responded by saying it had “strong concerns about continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada” who it accused of “promoting secessionism and inciting violence against Indian diplomats”.
Later, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said it had sought evidence from the Canadian side and was not ruling out any probe on their end if Ottawa was willing to provide evidence in support of its allegations.
In fact, even on Monday amid the new tiff, the MEA stated that Ottawa was yet to share any credible evidence with it. “Since Prime Minister Trudeau made certain allegations in September 2023, the Canadian Government has not shared a shred of evidence with the Government of India, despite many requests from our side. This latest step follows interactions that have again witnessed assertions without any facts. This leaves little doubt that on the pretext of an investigation, there is a deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains.”
What happens next?
It is unknown if India will take any further steps, as it stated it could, and what these steps might be.
Geopolitical experts, however, note that these accusations by Trudeau put Canada in a very tough spot. Explaining further, Stephanie Carvin, a political analyst and professor at Carleton University in the Canadian capital of Ottawa, told Al Jazeera: “We’re in a time where we see countries around the world – the European Union, the United States, Australia… trying to develop their relations with India. This kind of puts us offside all of the other allies that we have.”
The spat also put the two countries’ trade relations at risk. In 2022, India was Canada’s tenth largest trading partner with bilateral trade in goods at $11.9 billion that year.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre think-tank in Washington also chimed in on the issue. In an interview with news agency ANI, he said, “One could not have imagined that things in this relationship could get worse, but they have. I think that this is a relationship that’s now hit rock bottom and indeed, looking at recent developments, certainly is reminiscent of India’s relations with Pakistan in terms of these extremely serious allegations being made, in terms of senior diplomats being expelled, as well the use of blistering language in government statements. It’s all there and of course, the core allegation that we’re hearing from India is that Canada is sheltering and sponsoring anti-India terrorists. This is what we’re used to hearing India say about Pakistan.”
With inputs from agencies
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