Have 1.6 million illegal immigrants really left the US under Trump 2.0?

The Trump administration is claiming that an unprecedented number of undocumented immigrants have left the country in the United States president’s first 200 days back in office.

US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has repeatedly highlighted the figure of 1.6 million departures, presenting it as evidence of a successful crackdown on illegal immigration.

Independent researchers, however, caution that while the population of undocumented immigrants may have dropped, the estimates are subject to significant limitations.

What the DHS claims

Last week, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a statement declaring that approximately 1.6 million undocumented immigrants had departed the country since Donald Trump resumed the presidency in January.

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Noem framed the number as proof of rapid success: “In less than 200 days, 1.6 MILLION illegal immigrants have left the United States population. This is massive. This means safer streets, taxpayer savings, pressure off of schools and hospital services and better job opportunities for Americans. Thank you, President Trump!”

The agency promoted the statistic as “unprecedented,” posting on social media that “1.6 MILLION illegals are OUT of our country in the last 200 days.”

In less than 200 days, 1.6 MILLION illegal immigrants have left the United States population. This is massive. This means safer streets, taxpayer savings, pressure off of schools and hospital services and better job opportunities for Americans.

Thank you @POTUS Trump!

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@Sec_Noem) August 14, 2025

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According to Noem, this reduction is the result of a multi-pronged enforcement and deterrence strategy that combined tougher policing with programmes encouraging voluntary departure.

Speaking on Fox News on Thursday, Noem praised the administration’s approach, stating: “We have 1.6 million illegal immigrants that have left this country voluntarily. I think these numbers just show exactly the genius of Donald J. Trump.”

What we know about Operation Homecoming

One of the most distinctive aspects of DHS’s strategy has been the launch of Operation Homecoming. This programme was introduced as part of a broader effort to encourage undocumented immigrants to leave without being formally deported.

Under the scheme, those who agree to self-deport are offered free travel arrangements and a $1,000 financial incentive.

The CBP One App, which had previously allowed migrants to schedule border appointments, was dismantled and replaced by the CBP Home App. DHS describes this as a system that “allows illegal aliens to take control of their departure.”

The message, widely promoted through a multimillion-dollar international advertising campaign, was blunt: leave now voluntarily or face arrest and deportation.

The policy has been marketed as a humanitarian and pragmatic measure, enabling undocumented immigrants to depart on their own terms while reducing the burden of detention and forced removals.

However, critics argue that such programmes do not guarantee that those leaving will not return later, especially given the offer of financial assistance and transportation.

What the arrest & removal numbers under Trump 2.0 say

Alongside voluntary departure initiatives, DHS has also pursued an aggressive enforcement campaign. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), along with Customs and Border Protection (CBP), were directed to carry out targeted raids to remove individuals residing unlawfully in the United States.

According to DHS, more than 352,000 undocumented immigrants have been arrested since Trump resumed office, while over 324,000 have been deported.

More than 352,000 illegal aliens have been arrested and more than 324,000 removed. pic.twitter.com/AMgcBoQ90j

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) August 14, 2025

Despite this aggressive posture, official data suggests that daily arrest activity has slowed.

Between July 1 and July 27, ICE averaged 990 arrests per day, compared with 1,224 per day in June — a nearly 20 per cent decline.

Analysts point to logistical constraints and the practical limits of large-scale enforcement as possible reasons for this drop.

How the CIS reached DHS’ numbers

The headline figure of 1.6 million fewer undocumented immigrants comes from an analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), a think tank that advocates for reduced immigration levels.

CIS examined data from the US Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) and estimated that the undocumented population declined from 15.8 million in January this year to 14.2 million by July.

The organisation stressed that the decline appeared statistically significant, but it also cautioned against over-interpreting the results.

In its report, CIS acknowledged that stepped-up enforcement may have made undocumented immigrants less likely to respond to government surveys, which could artificially inflate the perceived decline.

As CIS noted, “If this is the case, then our estimate of illegal immigrants based on the survey may be overstating the decline in their actual numbers.”

But July’s data remains preliminary, with some administrative records not yet available. CIS also highlighted a broader trend: the total foreign-born population — legal and undocumented — fell by 2.2 million in the first half of 2025.

This included an estimated 600,000 non-citizens with legal status, suggesting that broader immigration patterns, not just enforcement, may be driving the decline.

But what Pew Research data says…

Pew Research Center, which maintains one of the most widely cited estimates of undocumented immigration, has presented a more cautious interpretation of the data.

Pew’s analysis found that the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States reached 14 million in 2023, the highest level ever recorded, up from 11.8 million the previous year.

The surge was largely attributed to Biden-era policies, which expanded asylum access and introduced temporary protections for certain groups, including Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans.

Biden also implemented the CBP One App appointment system, which the Trump administration has since dismantled.

Although Pew acknowledged that the undocumented population has declined under Trump, it pointed out that the figure is still likely above 14 million. This contrasts sharply with the administration’s narrative of a 1.6 million reduction.

Pew also noted that the total immigrant population — legal and illegal combined — reached an all-time high of 53 million in January, representing 15.8 per cent of the US population.

The fact that this number has since fallen marks the first decline in the total immigrant population since the 1960s.

What Trump has claimed so far

The size of the undocumented population has long been contested, with different organisations producing widely varying figures. Trump himself has repeatedly cited much higher numbers than those reported by independent researchers.

In a March address to US Congress, he claimed that 21 million migrants had entered the country during the previous four years.

That estimate far exceeds Pew’s count and even surpasses figures from the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), which put the number at 18.6 million in March.

CIS’s July estimate of 14.2 million undocumented immigrants is significantly higher than figures from DHS’s own Office of Homeland Security Statistics, which estimated 11 million undocumented individuals in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Center for Migration Studies reported 12.2 million in 2022, its highest number since 2008.

How changing demographics have affected immigration

While earlier decades saw Mexican nationals as the dominant group among undocumented immigrants, recent trends show that other countries now account for the majority of the increase.

According to Pew, Mexico’s undocumented population in the US grew slightly to 4.3 million in 2023. However, migrants from countries such as Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and India made up a much larger share of the total.

Pew also documented rapid growth in arrivals from Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Ukraine, and Peru, with numbers from these countries more than doubling in just two years.

In terms of geography within the United States, California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois continue to house the largest numbers of undocumented immigrants.

Texas, in particular, has narrowed its gap with California in recent years. Interestingly, six states — Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, and Oregon — had smaller undocumented populations in 2023 compared with the previous peak in 2007.

How this has impacted the US labour market

Pew estimated that in 2023, a record 9.7 million undocumented immigrants were part of the US labour force, accounting for about 5.6 per cent of all workers.

States such as Nevada, Florida, New Jersey, and Texas had the highest proportions of undocumented workers relative to their labour force.

Recent data analysed by CIS indicates that industries heavily reliant on unauthorised workers — including construction, hospitality, and food services — have seen sharper employment declines than the economy as a whole.

This suggests that the reported reduction in the undocumented population may already be affecting labour supply in certain sectors.

Supporters of Trump’s immigration policies argue that fewer undocumented workers relieve pressure on wages and improve job prospects for American citizens.

Critics, however, caution that the sudden withdrawal of large numbers of workers could disrupt industries dependent on immigrant labour and drive up costs for consumers.

Meanwhile, the administration continues to credit its enforcement strategy for the reported reduction.

Noem, speaking to Fox News, recounted Trump’s directive: “He said, ‘Kristi, if you’re gonna be my Homeland Security secretary, we’re gonna follow the law, you’re gonna do commercials, you’re gonna tell the world that no longer will we tolerate people being in our country illegally and that they need to go home.’”

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With inputs from agencies