Hurricane Milton: How climate change is making storms wetter, windier and more dangerous

Meteorologists and people across the world are waiting anxiously for Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm, to make its landfall in Florida. The storm, which US President Joe Biden said could be one of the ‘worst in 100 years to hit Florida’ is expected to be “potentially catastrophic”.

Earlier, Joe Biden begged Florida residents to flee, saying, “It’s a matter of life and death, and that’s not hyperbole,” adding, “evacuate now, now, now.”

The Category 5 storm comes just two weeks after Helene hit the state of Florida, killing over 2,000 people and wreaking untold devastation. The back-to-back storms have put the focus on climate change and how it could make hurricanes more intense.

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We break down how a warmer world is changing hurricane season, making them deadlier.

What are hurricanes?

Before we deep dive into the link between climate change and hurricanes, let’s understand what are hurricanes. They are basically powerful storms that develop in warm tropical ocean waters. While known as hurricanes in the US, they are known as cyclones or typhoons in other parts of the world.

How frequent are hurricanes in the US?

Hurricane Milton will be the fifth storm to make landfall in the US this year. Before this, Hurricane Helene hit the Big Bend area of Florida on September 26 as a Category 4 storm and went on to drive catastrophic flooding across the Southeast. The US also saw Hurricane Francine making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm on September 11, causing surprise flooding in New Orleans and leaving over 400,000 people without power.

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On August 5, Hurricane Debby hit the Big Bend area of Florida on August 5 as a Category 1 storm, and in June Hurricane Beryl became the most powerful hurricane this season. It caused widespread damage across the Caribbean before making landfall in Texas as a Category 1 storm on July 8 and leaving more than two million people in Houston without power.

Experts note that while this number is fewer than expected, they are more powerful — with higher wind speeds, heavier rainfall, and more severe storm surge.

So, what’s the climate change connection then?

A hurricane needs four main ingredients to form and strengthen — warm ocean water, lots of moisture in the air, low vertical wind shear, and a pre-existing disturbance. And we all know that climate change is warming ocean temperatures as well as leading to more moisture in the air.

Data reveals that the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have been hotter than average for more than 18 months. This is mainly due to climate change, coupled with the El Nino weather phenomenon.

Warmer ocean temperatures also lead to heavier rainfall and severe flooding. Experts note that storms like Hurricane Helene sucked up huge amounts of moisture as they hurtled towards land, which landed up in heavy rain, causing phenomenal flooding.

Climate change is also driving sea levels higher, which means more dangerous storm surges.

This has clearly been illustrated in a study published by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group. This report revealed that Hurricane Helene’s torrential rain and powerful winds were made about 10 per cent more intense due to climate change. Climate scientist Friederike Otto, who heads the research organisation, said, “Although a 10 per cent increase might seem relatively small… that small change in the hazard really leads to big change in impacts and damage.”

The study even showed that fossil fuels, which are a huge driver of climate change, have made storms such as Helene two-and-a-half times more likely to occur.

Another study also showed that climate change could have boosted Helene’s rainfall by up to 50 per cent along parts of its pathway.

As Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, told The Guardian, “The heat that human activities are adding to the atmosphere and oceans is like steroids for hurricanes. If humans keep heating the climate, we will keep seeing storms rapidly morph into monster hurricanes, leading to more destruction.”

Science has also proven in the past that a warmer world would lead to extreme rainfall events. That’s because, in a warmer world, there is simply more moisture in the air in the form of gaseous water vapour.

Tom Knutson, a senior scientist at NOAA, has noted that there’s a link between hurricanes and climate change. He said that “even if hurricanes themselves don’t change [due to climate change], the flooding from storm surge events will be made worse by sea level rise.”

And it is this very climate change that has led to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Milton. It jumped from a tropical storm to a fierce Category 5 hurricane within a span of 24 hours, with many experts calling it “nothing short of legendary.”

Soheil Radfar, a coastal hazards researcher at the University of Alabama at Tuscaloosa, was quoted as telling the Washington Post that Milton’s rapid intensification was owing to an ongoing marine heat wave. Moreover, these marine heat waves not only affect intensification but also wind speed.

How devastating is Milton expected to be?

Hurricane Milton, which is expected to make its landfall late Wednesday, is forecast to bring a storm surge of up to 15 feet along the west coast of Florida. Moreover, it is expected to have wind speeds of 165-125 mph (265-201 kmph).

According to experts, Milton will decimate homes, tearing roofs, shattering glass and collapsing walls, trees and power poles. Milton is expected to leave areas uninhabitable for weeks or months after it passes.

Moreover, it may lead to power outages and, according to health experts, could also lead to post-traumatic stress for some.

Leading Wall Street analysts have also predicted that Milton could cause damage of more than $50 billion, and in the worst-case scenario, it could even be $175 billion. “While too early to make insured loss estimates, a major hurricane impact in one of Florida’s most heavily populated regions could result in mid-double-digit billion dollar loss,” Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others said in a note. “A one-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region.”

Hurricane Helene, which struck the region just two weeks ago, has already caused devastation that Moody’s has pegged at approximately $11 billion.

Perhaps, Hurricane Milton will be the wake-up call to fight against climate change.

With inputs from agencies