Is it a new dawn for Syria or a terror state in the making?

The sudden downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long regime in Syria marks a watershed moment in the region’s turbulent history.

Yet, the victory of the Islamist rebel coalition, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has stirred widespread concern over the possibility of heightened terror threats and deeper instability.

While some have welcomed the end of Assad’s authoritarian rule, others are wary of the potential dangers posed by the power vacuum and the controversial history of HTS, which has its origins in Al Qaeda.

Assad’s regime crumbled within days, as HTS and its allies launched a decisive offensive, seizing major cities, including Aleppo and Damascus.

This marks the end of a 53-year dynasty led by the Assad family, beginning with Hafez al-Assad in 1970 and succeeded by his son Bashar in 2000.

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The collapse of Assad’s government was preceded by years of military stalemate. Assad had relied heavily on support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah to maintain his grip on power.

However, cracks began to appear in his defences, exacerbated by external pressures such as Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, and the distractions faced by Russia in its war against Ukraine.

In the aftermath of the coup, streets across Syria erupted with celebration. Chants of “Assad is gone, Homs is free” echoed through cities. Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani declared on Syrian state television, “The future is ours,” signalling a new chapter in the nation’s history.

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While HTS now presents itself as a governing entity, its roots lie in Al Qaeda. Established in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, it served as Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, adhering to a radical Islamist ideology.

Over the years, the group has undergone several rebrandings, distancing itself from Al Qaeda in 2016 and adopting the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. However, the core ideology and leadership remain contentious.

Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, who once pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda, now portrays HTS as a reformed organisation committed to tolerance and religious freedom. “There is no room” for turning back, he announced after the coup, stating plans for a transitional government.

HTS also issued orders prohibiting random shooting and insisting women should not be forced into conservative Islamic dress.

Despite these declarations, sceptics remain unconvinced. “They may have evolved, but their essential ideology is still the same,” a Middle Eastern official told The Washington Post. Western analysts share this concern, pointing to HTS’s history of opportunistic alliances and militant operations.

Is this a “catastrophic success”?

The swift rise of HTS has reignited fears of a “catastrophic success,” where the collapse of one authoritarian regime creates conditions for an even greater threat, reported The Washington Post. HTS’s control over Damascus raises significant questions about its governance model and whether it can prevent the resurgence of extremist groups like ISIS.

The United States, wary of the group’s militant history, conducted dozens of airstrikes in the days following the coup.

HTS’s rise also poses challenges for Syria’s neighbours. Israel expanded its buffer zone in the Golan Heights, a move reflecting its apprehension about HTS’s territorial ambitions. Jawlani, whose nom-de-guerre references the Golan, has historically stressed its liberation from Israeli control.

Further complicating the situation is the potential resurgence of ISIS. The group, which still has active cells in Syria’s central and eastern deserts, could exploit the power vacuum created by Assad’s downfall. The sudden victory of HTS may inadvertently open doors for ISIS to regain strength.

Can HTS stabilise Syria?

For ordinary Syrians, the end of Assad’s rule offers hope but also profound uncertainty. Over 14 million Syrians remain displaced, and more than 500,000 have died since the conflict began in 2011. The question remains whether HTS can foster stability and create conditions for refugees to return.

The international community, led by the UK and the US, has called for peace and stability in Syria. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer remarked, “The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long, and we welcome his departure.” However, he stressed the importance of building a unified Syria that respects the sacrifices of its people.

The situation also poses a strategic dilemma for global powers. Russia, a staunch Assad ally, has confirmed the dictator’s departure but maintained that its military bases in Syria remain secure. Meanwhile, Turkey and its proxies, along with Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, are recalibrating their positions in light of HTS’s rise.

Syria’s current scenario draws parallels to post-conflict situations in Iraq and Libya, where the removal of dictators led to prolonged chaos and bloodshed. Experts warn that Syria could face similar challenges, with factional infighting and external interventions complicating its recovery.

With inputs from agencies