 "Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields supreme command of the armed forces and has the power to declare war, remains undecided as to which path to pursue. Reuters")
The death of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Israeli airstrikes on Beirut has created a dilemma for Iran.
The killing of the long-time leader of the terror group threatens to engulf West Asia into a full-fledged conflagration.
Iran, which has long backed the Lebanon-based outfit with army and funds, now has to decide what to do next.
But how could Iran respond to Nasrallah’s death?
Let’s take a closer look:
What is Iran saying?
There seems to be a difference in between what Iran’s leaders are saying and what they are thinking.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed Nasrallah’s death “will not be in vain.”
As per BBC, Khamenei declared five days of mourning in Iran for the “martyrdom of the great Nasrallah.”
He called him “a path and a school of thought” that would continue.
Khamenei called on Muslims to give Hezbollah “their resources and help.”
“The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront,” Khamenei added. “The blood of the martyr shall not go unavenged.”
Meanwhile, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref vowed to bring about Israel’s “destruction”.
Iran also vowed to avenge the killing of Revolutionary Guards General Abbas Nilforoushan, who died alongside the Hezbollah leader.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the United States had played a role in Nasrallah’s killing as a supplier of weapons to Israel.
“The Americans cannot deny their complicity with the Zionists,” he said in the statement carried by state media.
The Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, on Sunday said ‘resistance groups’ will continue to oppose Israel.
Iran’s network of regional allies, known as the ‘Axis of Resistance’, stretch from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hamas in Gaza, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.
Top leadership divided
But The New York Times quoted four top officials including members of the powerful Revolutionary Guard as saying that Iran’s leadership is split on what path to pursue next.
While the conservatives are calling for a powerful response including a direct strike on Israel, the moderates are advising caution.
Saeed Jalili, a zealous ideologue loyal to Khamenei, called for a pre-emptive strike on Israel. Those running state TV, who are close to Jalili, advocated the same.
Jalili is an opponent of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with major powers that was negotiated on the Iranian side by a group of pragmatic officials open to detente with the West.
However, Pezeshkian, a moderate, urged otherwise – warning that doing so would result in Tehran igniting a regional conflict, which is exactly what Israel wants.
Other moderates also spoke about the possibility of a conflict with Israel leaving Iran’s infrastructure degraded – even as the economy at home splutters.
Khamenei, who wields supreme command of the armed forces and has the power to declare war, himself remains undecided as to which path to pursue.
He is said to be ‘deeply shaken’ by Nasrallah’s death.
Iran is also worried that Israel might strike it next – to perhaps try to take out Khamenei.
Which is perhaps why Khamenei has been taken to a secure location inside Iran amid heightened security.
What do experts say?
Experts too remain divided.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told BBC Nasrallah’s death has left Iran’s reputation among its allies “certainly damaged.”
Vakil added that Tehran is “looking for some way to turn the tables and save some face”.
“This could result in a co-ordinated axis response, including from Iraq and the Houthis, or another direct Iranian strike on Israel itself,” she added
“By maintaining pressure or even escalating, Tehran is aware that this will invite further attacks, but it will choose to do so keep pressure on Israel."
The New York Times quoted the two Republican guard officials as saying Iran’s top priority was to help place Hezbollah back on a secure footing.
This means elevating a new leader, repairing the command structure and communications network. Only then will the terror group be able to hit back against Israel, they said.
Iran will also send senior member of its elite Quds Forces to Beirut to counsel Hezbollah, the officials added.
Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice president of Iran, told the newspaper Nasrallah’s death is “an incredibly heavy blow, and realistically speaking, we have no clear path for recovering from this loss.”
“We will not go to war, that’s off the table,” he said. “But Iran will also not reverse course in supporting the militant groups in the region, nor in defusing tensions with the West. All of these things can be pursued at the same time.”
A piece in BBC too argued that Iran could reply on its ‘Axis of resistance’ in Yemen, Syria and Iraq to strike Israel on its behalf.
“But whatever response Iran chooses, it will likely calibrate it to be just short of triggering a war that it cannot hope to win,” the piece argued.
Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, argued that Khamenei perhaps faces his most difficult decision since coming to power.
“The assassination of Nasrallah puts Iran in a very difficult dilemma between a sharp reaction to Israel, which risks a regional war, and no reaction, which will deeply harm its Axis of Resistance armed proxy network. At the same time, it is likely that the question of Iran’s nuclear deterrence will be examined again, given the fact that Hezbollah was the main deterrence tool of Iran against Israel, preventing it from attacking its nuclear sites,” Citrinowicz wrote.
Masoud Mostajabi is the deputy director of the Iraq Initiative at the Middle East Programs of the Atlantic Council, wrote, “Comments over the last twenty-four hours from Iran’s supreme leader suggest that immediate retaliation is unlikely—an essential factor in understanding Tehran’s approach and the likely trajectory of the conflict in the months ahead.”
“While Israel has effectively employed a shock-and-awe campaign, targeting Hezbollah’s leadership since July, Iran remains committed to a long-term war of attrition.”
“Nasrallah has been crucial to Iran’s power expansion,” said Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment, noting that Hezbollah remains “the crown jewel” of the Islamic republic’s regional allies.
His killing “has not altered the fact that Iran still does not want to get directly engaged” in the ongoing conflict, said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis group.
But it left Iran with “a serious dilemma”, said Vaez, especially that the group’s deterrence regarding Israel was now “in complete disarray”.
For Tehran-based international relations professor Mehdi Zakerian, developments have shown that the Iran-aligned resistance front “was not only unable to contain Israel, it also suffered serious blows”.
Nasrallah’s death came around two months after Palestinian group Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in late July in Tehran where he had attended President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
Iran blamed Israel for his death and vowed to retaliate.
Zakerian says rebuilding Hezbollah will be no small feat for Tehran amid its mounting economic challenges.
“If the government wants to get involved in reconstructing Lebanon or re-equipping Hezbollah, it will aggravate Iran’s economic crisis,” he said.
Iran has been reeling from the economic impact of international sanctions, which have contributed to soaring inflation, high unemployment and a record low rate for the Iranian rial against the US dollar.
Pezeshkian’s government has boosted efforts to help ease the crippling sanctions and revive a 2015 landmark nuclear deal which collapsed when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the accord three years later.
Analysts have said Iran has been treading carefully since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, trying to project power without provoking a US response.
Even during its first-ever direct attack on Israel in April – retaliation for an air strike on Tehran’s embassy annex in Damascus – most projectiles were intercepted by Israeli defences or allied forces.
Iran said at the time it had informed the United States and given neighbouring nations a 72-hour warning before what it called its “limited” attack on Israel.
Still, Vaez said Iran “has every interest in trying to preserve whatever remains of Hezbollah.Hezbollah is Iran’s shield.”
“I don’t think Iranians would give up on almost 40 years of investment in this project overnight because a dozen people were eliminated,” he added.
‘Iran cannot abandon Hezbollah’
And “Iran cannot abandon Hezbollah, because in that case it would also lose its other allies”, said Zakerian.
Iran-backed militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen have all become involved in rising regional tensions since the Israel’s war against Hamas erupted.
Another strong dilemma Iran may face is communicating with Hezbollah and the transfer of weapons, analysts say.
On Friday, Israel’s military vowed to prevent Iran from supplying Hezbollah with weapons via Beirut airport, saying its fighters were patrolling the skies above.
“It is too late now for Iran to support Hezbollah with weapons,” said political commentator Mossadegh Mossadeghpour.
But he said he believes the group “will repair itself as it has done in the past”.
Hezbollah’s internal communications were also dealt a heavy blow when sabotage attacks this month targeted members’ pagers and walkie-talkies.
Vaez believes it would be “very difficult” for the Iranians to communicate now with their allies, unlike during the 33-day war in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah.
He said Hezbollah’s “weak and meagre” responses have been noted as the violence with Israel has escalated.
“The question is whether they are unwilling or unable to take action,” he said.
Vaez maintains that Iran appears to be hoping that Hezbollah will “get its act together … and mount a significant attack on Israel to demonstrate it is still standing.”
With inputs from agencies