 "How the $61 billion US aid will change the war in Ukraine")
With US Congress poised to greenlight a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, the focus shifts to the swift mobilisation of weapon stockpiles that have languished in Europe for months. As the need for immediate action is underscored by Russia’s heightened assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and its ongoing missile strikes targeting Ukrainian cities, we take a look at how this long overdue aid package may help Ukraine.
What’s in this new aid package?
The complete $95 billion package includes about $61 billion for Ukraine, with some of it going to restock American weapons. There’s $26 billion for Israel, $8 billion for US allies in the Indo-Pacific, like Taiwan, and $9 billion for humanitarian aid in war zones such as Haiti, Sudan, and Gaza. But there’s also a ban until March 2025 on direct US funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency (Unrwa), which helps Gaza.
In the part for Ukraine, out of the $60.7 billion, roughly $23 billion would be used by the US to refill its military supplies, potentially leading to future US military aid to Ukraine. Another $14 billion would go to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, where the Pentagon buys new advanced weapons for the Ukrainian military directly from US defence contractors.
There’s also over $11 billion to support current US military operations in the region, boost Ukrainian military capabilities, and enhance intelligence sharing between Kyiv and Washington. Plus, around $8 billion in non-military aid, like helping Ukraine’s government maintain basic functions, including paying salaries and pensions.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe package also includes some Republican priorities that Democrats either agreed to or were willing to accept, reported The Guardian. This includes proposals to use frozen Russian central bank assets to rebuild Ukraine, impose sanctions on Iran, Russia, China, and criminal organisations involved in fentanyl trafficking, and a law that requires the China-based owner of TikTok to sell its stake within a year or face a ban in the US.
What impact could additional US weapons have on Ukraine?
Since US military aid essentially dried up at the end of last year, Ukraine has been grappling with Russian aggression, facing a severe shortage of artillery in particular. In February, its military was forced to withdraw from the town of Avdiivka in the Donbas region, and now faces mounting pressure in Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces have been able to significantly outgun Ukrainian forces, with ratios ranging from five to one to as high as 10 to one. This means Ukrainian artillery has struggled to hinder Russian forces from amassing for ground offensives. The shortages have been so dire that some Ukrainian artillery units resorted to firing smoke shells to deter Russian forces because they had run out of ammunition.
Simultaneously, Ukraine has faced a deficit in air and missile defences, leaving its civilian population increasingly vulnerable. Russia has aggressively targeted Ukrainian power stations, disabling two in the Kharkiv region in March and another south of Kyiv earlier in April. This has led to electricity rationing in Kharkiv, a city of 1.3 million people, with growing concerns about the power grid’s ability to cope, particularly in the upcoming autumn and winter seasons.
When can we expect US weapons to arrive in the battlefield?
Pentagon officials mentioned on Friday that they are preparing an initial package for White House approval to be sent to Ukraine within days after the Senate confirms the House of Representatives’ vote and US President Joe Biden signs it into law. A Senate vote is anticipated for Tuesday, and the initial package, likely focusing on artillery and air defence, could follow shortly afterward. Some munitions have been stored in Europe in anticipation and could be mobilised within a week or two.
However, experts warn that it will take some time before any noticeable impact is observed. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the US army in Europe, told The Guardian, “It may be weeks before we see significant battlefield effects.” Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, cautioned on Sunday that Russia might attempt a rapid offensive and launch further air raids to capitalise on its advantage on the eastern front.
When can we expect Europe to contribute?
European nations faced delays in reorganising their military-industrial infrastructure to support Ukraine. Unlike the United States, where government-owned companies handle certain munitions production, such as artillery shells, European countries rely on private-sector firms, leading to lengthier contract issuance timelines than anticipated.
However, concerns regarding the timing and possibility of US resupplying Ukraine have accelerated efforts. A Czech-led initiative to procure additional artillery shells from neutral countries with surplus stocks has secured at least 300,000 units, with initial deliveries expected before June. Germany announced a week ago its intention to donate a Patriot air defence system, while the Netherlands has offered to purchase Patriots from nations unwilling to directly provide them to Ukraine.
What potential medium-term effects might this have on the war?
Russia has ramped up its defence spending, possibly reaching up to 7.5% of GDP according to some estimates, and has been introducing innovations on the battlefield. Moscow is increasingly deploying rudimentary yet highly lethal air-launched glide bombs to devastate frontline positions, beyond the range of Kyiv’s effective countermeasures.
Ukrainian soldiers have reported a surge in drone usage against them. Additionally, Russia maintains a manpower advantage on the battlefield, which it has leveraged alongside heavy weaponry.
Experts do not anticipate a turnaround in Ukraine’s battlefield position in 2024. Matthew Savill from the Rusi military think tank told The Guardian, “The main point is that this funding can probably only help stabilise the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025.” Hodges argues that 2024 is likely “the year of industrial competition,” during which both sides aim to bolster their resources in a bid to deliver a decisive blow in the following year.
How have world leaders reacted?
Immediately after the bill passed, Zelenskyy released a statement expressing his gratitude to both parties “and personally Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track”.
“Democracy and freedom will always have global significance and will never fail as long as America helps to protect it,” he said. “The vital US aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger. Just peace and security can only be attained through strength. We hope that bills will be supported in the Senate and sent to President Biden’s desk. Thank you, America!”
I am grateful to the United States House of Representatives, both parties, and personally Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 20, 2024
Democracy and freedom will always have global significance and will never fail as long as America helps to…
Other Western leaders, who have been scrambling to come up with ways to fill the gap left by stalled US military aid, also lauded Congress’ decision, reported AP.
“Ukraine is using the weapons provided by NATO Allies to destroy Russian combat capabilities. This makes us all safer, in Europe & North America,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg posted on X.
I welcome that the U.S. House of Representatives has approved a major new package of aid to #Ukraine. Ukraine is using the weapons provided by #NATO Allies to destroy Russian combat capabilities. This makes us all safer, in Europe & North America.
— Jens Stoltenberg (@jensstoltenberg) April 20, 2024
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that “Ukraine deserves all the support it can get against Russia,” and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the vote it “a strong signal in these times.”
I welcome the overwhelming positive vote by the US House of Representatives.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) April 20, 2024
Ukraine deserves all the support it can get against Russia.
Now, we are asking the US Senate to vote as quickly as possible as lives are at stake.
Transatlantic allies are united in support for…
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk thanked House Speaker Mike Johnson, while also noting the holdup in Congress. “Better late than too late. And I hope it is not too late for Ukraine,” he wrote on X.
In Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Saturday called the approval of aid to Ukraine “expected and predictable.”
The decision “will make the United States of America richer, further ruin Ukraine and result in the deaths of even more Ukrainians, the fault of the Kyiv regime,” Peskov was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Ria Novosti.
“The new aid package will not save, but, on the contrary, will kill thousands and thousands more people, prolong the conflict, and bring even more grief and devastation,” Leonid Slutsky, head of the Russian State Duma Committee on International Affairs, wrote on Telegram.
With inputs from agencies
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