How sanctions did not stop Iran from developing ballistic missiles

Iran’s ballistic missile programme has advanced over the past 40 years despite sanctions, and this week’s strikes in Pakistan, Iraq, and Syria have pushed it back into the public eye. Iranian forces attacked “terrorist” targets in Syria and what they described as “a spy headquarters” in the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq on Tuesday. Additionally, its troops opened fire on “an Iranian terrorist group” in Pakistan. Tehran claimed that this incident resulted in the deaths of two children and retaliated with an attack on Iranian territory that cost nine lives. The West’s obsession with Iran stems in part from its missile capabilities, as the Islamic republic and its allies intensify their West Asia offensive in support of the Hamas terrorists in Gaza and their conflict with Israel. Range and accuracy The vast Iranian missile arsenal spans short distances (300 kilometres or 186 miles), middle distances (300–1,000 kilometres), and long ranges (up to 2,000 kilometres). Most are made or manufactured in Iran, where modern industry and universities play a vital role. [caption id=“attachment_13630592” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Pakistan said it struck separatist Baloch militants inside Iran using rockets and killer drones. Reuters"[/caption] Hardly a year goes by without an Iranian announcement about the development of a new type of ballistic or cruise missiles," said Eva Koulouriotis, an independent expert. Solid-fuel missiles are “easier to store and much quicker to bring into action than liquid-fuel ones, so they are much more useful tactically,” according to Jeremy Binnie of the British private intelligence firm Janes. Tehran has progressively moved towards these missiles. “The Iranians have taken Scud technology from the 300 kilometres of missiles they received in the 1980s to 1,600 kilometres or more,” he added, as well as developing “much better guidance systems… enabling them to carry out course corrections.” Iran-Iraq conflict For Iranian forces, the Iran-Iraq conflict of 1980–1988 marked a turning point as they obtained Soviet Scud-B missiles to retaliate against the strikes of then-Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. “That experience left a long-lasting impression on Iranian leaders, who concluded that missiles were an effective means of retaliation and a vital element of defence,” said John Krzyzaniak of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. “Iran lacks a modern air force because it has been unable to upgrade its fighters over the past few decades, so it has compensated by building missiles,” he added. International assistance According to Farzan Sabet of the Geneva Graduate Institute, “North Korea, Syria, and Libya furnished Iran’s early ballistic missile stockpile.” Later, before its programme could support itself, Tehran was able to turn to the Soviet Union and Russia. [caption id=“attachment_13636042” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] In this picture released by the official website of the Iranian Army on Friday,19 January 2024, missiles are seen during a military drill in southern Iran. AP[/caption] Today, “it’s unclear how much external input” Iran gets, said Janes expert Binnie. “It would be more at the component level rather than (missiles’) overall design and development,” he said. In fact, many of the weapons “probably use off-the-shelf components where appropriate, as the Iranians are very savvy about incorporating commercial products into their missiles and their drones,” Binnie said. Iran has been able to accomplish this despite international sanctions, particularly those imposed by the United States, which experts claim have only served to hinder and increase the cost of the missile programme rather than eradicate it completely. Iranian missile stocks are unknown in quantity The number of Iranian missile stockpiles is unknown, but experts surmise that the army, the Revolutionary Guards, and regional allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen control a sizable portion of them. Making an accurate estimation is nearly impossible, according to Koulouriotis, even in Iran alone. The army and Revolutionary Guards “have their own factories and separate warehouses,” she said. Arab and Western sources “talk about 60,000 missiles, but in my opinion, the number is much higher than that and may reach more than 200,000,” Koulouriotis added. Large-scale plans The US and its allies believe Iran is working on ballistic missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. The Islamic republic has continuously maintained that its actions are completely peaceful and denied having any desire to acquire the technology to produce nuclear weapons. Even without atomic weapons, the missiles have “an important conventional warfare mission to allow the country to strike targets with precision from far away,” Sabet said. That allows Iran “to deter adversaries from overtly striking the Iranian homeland and some of its key assets abroad, or at least to make them pay a high price if they do,” he added. In future, Tehran aims to “improve their ability to hit moving targets,” Krzyzaniak said. “This will require better, faster intelligence gathering capabilities and, for the missiles, better terminal guidance,” he added. The government also has “the technological building blocks to build something to reach longer ranges” beyond its current 2,000 kilometres, Krzyzaniak said. With inputs from AFP