 "Ironically, Pakistan was declared ‘poppy-free’ in 2001 – a status its officials often tout. Reuters")
The Taliban, since returning to power in Afghanistan in 2021 after the exit of the United States, has cracked down on the opium trade.
Now, satellite images show that the cultivation of poppy – whose seeds comprise the raw material for heroin – has moved across the border to Pakistan’s Balochistan. The images revealed massive poppy farms in the restive south-west province.
The developments have raised concerns in New Delhi that the drugs could find their way across the border and that terror groups could use the money raised via the heroin trade to attack India.
But what happened? What do we know? Let’s take a closer look.
What happened?
Aerial images show that the restive province of Balochistan alone has 8,100 acres of poppy farms – surpassing the 8,000 acres of poppy farms in two provinces of Afghanistan. The images were procured by geographic data company Alcis.
Many of these farms are over five hectares (12 acres) each. This has been found in surveys of just two small areas of the province – Duki and Gulistan. In some places, around 70 per cent of agricultural land has been taken over by poppy production.
The development came as poppy production
plunged in Afghanistan ever since it was banned by the country’s
supreme spiritual leader in 2022. Production, which was spread across 233,000 hectares (575,210 acres) in 2022, dropped to just 10,800 hectares
(26,687 acres) in 2023.
A survey by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said that opium farming in Afghanistan collapsed by 95 per cent in the year that followed.
Meanwhile, cultivation shifted across the border with Afghan farmers easily crossing over. Balochistan and Afghanistan share a long and porous 1,268-kilometre border. They bring with them the technical know-how on how to grow the crop in the harsh desert landscape.
Most Afghan farmers either work on the land or simply rent it out. “It’s very difficult to get land and grow poppies without a share for the local Baloch,” one migrant Afghan farmer told The Telegraph. “They know the Pakistani militia in the area.”
“A lot of Baloch people have livestock – they don’t know about the cultivation of poppies,” another added.
Experts call this ‘the balloon effect’, where pressure on one area results in it moving to another – akin to squeezing a filled balloon.
However, poppy production bounced back in Afghanistan in 2024, with production shifting from the traditional area of cultivation – the north-west – to the south-east. Cultivation in 2024 grew nearly 20 per cent to 32,000 acres, according to UNODC. Others peg
the rise at a more moderate 12,800 hectares (31,640 acres).
However, it remains far below the production levels of 2022. “Despite the increase in 2024, opium poppy cultivation remains far below 2022, when an estimated 232,000 hectares (573,430 acres) were cultivated,” the UNODC said in a statement.
In Afghanistan’s south-western region, which borders Pakistan and accounted for almost half the country’s production in 2023, cultivation collapsed by 65 per cent in 2024. Of that region’s poppy-farming provinces, the only exception was Helmand, which saw a 434 per cent increase but from a low base.
In the north-eastern region, which borders Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, cultivation surged 381 per cent this year to 7,563 hectares (18,693 acres), four times the area cultivated in the south-west, the second-biggest producer, the report said.
Almost all the north-east’s production was in one province, Badakhshan, a mountainous area that includes a stretch of the Hindu Kush and Afghanistan’s relatively short border with China.
What do experts say?
The data suggest that Afghanistan’s poppy production will likely be easily outstripped by Pakistan by next year. “The Afghan [poppy] crop in 2025 is likely to be far exceeded by Pakistan,” David Mansfield, an expert on Afghanistan’s opium trade, told The Telegraph.
Mansfield, who analysed the US government’s counter-narcotics programme, said the images show “unrestrained cultivation that has not ever been seen in Afghanistan, even in its peak years of opium production”.
Experts say the development could leave terrorist groups flush with cash and alter the dynamics of the region. Balochistan is home to several militant groups including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). Many of these groups have been in a decade-long struggle against the Pakistani state.
“People talk about Balochistan as the new Afghanistan,” Mansfield added. “It’s unruly. There’s a lot of different armed groups there.”
“Balochistan is a powder keg even in the calmest of times, with its combination of ethnic insurgents and Islamist militants,” added Michael Kugelman, senior fellow of the Asia Pacific Foundation, a Vancouver-based think tank.
“It’s rough terrain security-wise, and it’s also a sensitive area, given the presence of Pakistani nuclear facilities and high-stakes Chinese investment projects.
“The drug trade can be destabilising even in isolation, but when it’s happening in a region rife with militancy, security risks will naturally soar.”
Corruption is already running rampant, with farmers complaining that they have to pay off “Pakistani militia” and local police. Ironically, Pakistan was declared ‘poppy-free’ in 2001 – a status its officials often tout.
Ironically too, the Taliban’s crackdown has likely resulted in the growing use of synthetic opioids such as fentanyl and nitazenes, particularly in Europe, according to the UNODC’s 2025 World Drug Report.
With inputs from agencies