How much will Trump's mass deportation plan cost? Can the US afford it?

United States President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants has raised the question about what the financial and logistical feasibility of such an operation would be.

The initiative, described as the largest deportation effort in US history, carries staggering cost implications, making it a centrepiece of debate for policymakers, economists, and immigration experts.

Trump has pledged to remove all 11 million undocumented immigrants from the US. This ambitious promise builds on his earlier immigration policies and aims to escalate enforcement significantly.

Tom Homan, Trump’s appointed “border czar,” has revealed that the operation will require massive Congressional funding, additional detention facilities, and significant manpower. “We need Congress to give us some money to get this done,” Homan told CNN in an interview.

His proposal includes the construction of detention facilities to hold between 50,000 and 70,000 people at a time, far exceeding the current ICE detention capacity.

To put this into context, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers conducted 170,590 administrative arrests in FY 2023, representing a 19.5 per cent increase over the previous year. The scale Trump envisions would dwarf these figures.

We take a look at the costs and logistics tied to this ambitious plan:

The price tag for Trump’s deportation plan is massive, with one estimate ranging from $88 billion annually for sustained efforts to $315 billion for a one-time mass deportation operation. Over a decade, the total cost could climb to $967.9 billion, making it one of the most expensive federal initiatives in US history.

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A look at the breakdown of costs

To hold the millions of undocumented immigrants slated for deportation, the US would need to expand its detention infrastructure dramatically.

The American Immigration Council estimates that to deport one million people per year, the US would need detention capacity 24 times larger than what ICE currently operates.

• Estimated cost of mass detention: $167 billion.

Construction of detention facilities for 50,000–70,000 individuals at any given time, as proposed by Trump’s team, is a logistical and financial challenge.

ICE would require an additional 30,000 officers, instantly making it the largest federal law enforcement agency in the US. The hiring and training costs for these new officers are not fully accounted for in most estimates, but they represent a significant long-term expenditure.

Deportation logistics would involve a massive scale-up of ICE Air Operations, which oversees deportation flights. Military planes are expected to supplement this effort.

Current capacity would be insufficient, requiring additional charter aircraft and expanded transportation contracts.

The deportation process involves legal hearings, appeals, and processing fees. The US would need to build and maintain over 1,000 new immigration courtrooms to handle cases at the required pace.

“We’ll be ready to launch the day of the inauguration,” said Homan. However, he acknowledged that much depends on securing Congressional funding.

What this means for US economy

Beyond the direct costs, deporting millions of undocumented immigrants would have far-reaching economic consequences.

Loss of tax revenue:

Undocumented immigrants contribute significantly to the US economy:

• $46.8 billion in federal taxes (2022).
• $29.3 billion in state and local taxes (2022).
• Contributions to Social Security and Medicare amount to $22.6 billion and $5.7 billion, respectively, even though these individuals cannot access these benefits.

Deporting this population would result in an immediate reduction in tax revenue, straining government budgets.

Labour shortages:

Undocumented immigrants are a vital part of industries such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality. Their removal would create labour shortages, potentially driving up costs for businesses and consumers.

A report by the American Immigration Council highlights the indirect costs of mass deportations, including the disruption to businesses reliant on immigrant labour.

How Trump plans to fund it

Trump’s campaign argues that the cost of deportations “pales in comparison” to the expenses of providing housing, healthcare, and social services to undocumented immigrants.

Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s campaign press secretary, had told ABC News in November, “Mass deportations of illegal immigrant criminals, and restoring an orderly immigration system, are the only way to solve this crisis.”

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However, critics note that the funding mechanisms remain unclear. The operation would require Congressional approval for billions in new spending, a potentially contentious political battle.

Homan, who has been tasked with spearheading the initiative, admitted, “I don’t know how much money I want to have to buy beds, transportation contracts, or detention facilities.”

What this means for the US in the long run

Deporting even a fraction of the undocumented population would require sustained funding over several years.

• Sustained deportations: $88 billion per year.
• Decade-long costs: Nearly $1 trillion.

The Trump campaign proposes invoking the Insurrection Act to mobilise National Guard units as part of the effort, potentially adding more costs for military deployment and operations.

Experts question whether such a massive deportation effort is logistically possible. The scale of the operation would require unprecedented coordination across federal, state, and local agencies.

Mass deportations would face pushback from Democratic-led cities and states that limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. The societal and humanitarian costs, including family separations, would likely spark widespread protests and legal battles.

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With inputs from agencies