 "How Myanmar's Junta is facing its biggest threat since 2021 coup")
Myanmar’s junta is facing its biggest threat since it took power. Several ethnic groups have, for over a week, battled government troops across its northern Shan state near the country’s border with China. The United Nations says more than 20,000 people have fled their homes. Myanmar’s borderlands are home to more than a dozen ethnic armed groups, some of which have fought the military for decades over autonomy and control of lucrative resources. There are also turf wars with pro-military militia over criminal enterprises ranging from drug smuggling and casinos to prostitution and cyberscams. The military’s 2021 putsch and its bloody crackdown on defence had sparked renewed fighting with some ethnic armed groups in northern Shan. But what’s happening exactly? And what’s at stake for China? Let’s take a closer look: What happened? On 27 October, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta´ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) – jointly known as the Brotherhood Alliance – launched simultaneous attacks on the junta in Shan state. Pro-military Telegram channels said the resistance groups – which analysts say can call on at least 15,000 fighters between them – were attacking 12 towns or settlements across a swathe of Shan state around 100 kilometres. As per Radio Free Asia, the attacks, which occurred around 4 am, were launched in seven different sites across Shan state including Kunlong, Theinni, Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkaing, Namhkan, Kutkai, and Lashio (the state’s biggest municipality). The junta’s Northeastern Command headquarters in Shan state also came under assault
The attacks were codenamed “Operation 1027” – after its date and month.
The Diplomat quoted the Brotherhood Alliance as saying in a statement that the operation was “driven by our collective desire to safeguard the lives of civilians, assert our right of self-defense, maintain control of our territory, and respond resolutely to ongoing artillery attacks and airstrikes” from the Myanmar military. “Furthermore,” it added, “we are dedicated to eradicating the oppressive military dictatorship, a shared aspiration of the entire Myanmar populace.” At least eight civilians including three children were killed in the initial fighting. The MNDAA said its fighters had closed the roads from the trade hub of Lashio to Chin Shwe Haw and Muse on the China border ahead of a “major offensive”. Footage shared on its media channel showed fighters in what appeared to be an abandoned camp, with weapons and boxes of ammunition scattered across the ground. It did not say where the footage was taken. [caption id=“attachment_13354022” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The leader of Myanmar’s army-installed government said the military will carry out counter-attacks against a powerful alliance of ethnic armed groups that has seized towns near the Chinese border in the country’s northeastern and northern regions. AP[/caption] Fighting around Lashio – home to the military’s northeast command – and near the towns of Muse, Chin Shwe Haw and Laukkai was ongoing, local media and residents said. Laukkai is about five kilometres from the border with China. RFA quoted Hopang resident Pho Wa as saying there were “mass casualties” among junta troops and servants and that vital infrastructure had been wrecked. “Since multiple checkpoints … were raided, many customs agents, police officers and soldiers were killed,” he said. “The residents of Chinshwehaw have fled to [a region] administered by an [ethnic] Wa force called Nam Tit. Many are still trapped in Chinshwehaw city.” “All shops are closed and no one is going out,” a resident of Hopang township, around 10 kilometres from Chinshwehaw, told Agence France-Presse. “We can hear the sounds of aircraft and gunfire constantly,” they said, requesting anonymity for security reasons. A Muse resident told AFP that locals were staying indoors as soldiers patrolled the streets and that the road from the town to the city of Mandalay – a major trade route – had been closed. A rescue worker in Lashio who requested anonymity for safety reasons told AFP that resistance fighters had begun shelling the military base near the town from 4:00 am and that the military had responded with artillery fire. All flights to and from Lashio airport had been cancelled on Friday “because of the situation”, an airline ticketing agency told AFP. The Brotherhood Alliance on Saturday claimed to have seized a handful of outposts. Local media reports said TNLA fighters on Saturday seized two outposts controlled by pro-military militia near Lashio, the largest town in northern Shan state and home to the military’s north-eastern command. The MNDAA said it seized three military outposts farther to the east. Earlier this month nearly 30 people were killed and dozens wounded in a strike on a camp for displaced people in neighbouring Kachin State. The Kachin Independence Army, an ethnic armed group that controls the area, blamed the junta for the attack. Last week the junta ordered air strikes and troop reinforcements as it tried to recover outposts it had lost in subsequent fighting with the KIA, the military and the armed group said. A KIA spokesman told AFP he was not sure if its fighters had joined Friday’s attacks. What’s the situation now? As per Irrawaddy.com, the alliance claims to now have control over 87 Myanmar military camps and Chinshwehaw, Nawngkhio, and Hseni towns in Shan state.
Perhaps most importantly, the alliance claims to have blocked several important trade routes to China.
The RFA also quoted the MNDAA as saying more than 100 junta troops including an entire battalion and pro-junta have surrendered to the alliance since 27 November. Yan Naing of MNDAA said, “It is true that the 41 [troops] surrendered – it happened on 30 October.” The AA, MNDAA and TNLA say the military has suffered dozens killed, wounded and captured since the operation. The groups said they were in “complete control” of Chinshwehaw town on the China border and Hsenwi, which sits on the road to the China border. A resident in Hsenwi, a strategic transport node around 90 kilometres (55 miles) from Chinshwehaw, told AFP that locals were hiding in their homes as clashes raged. “It’s chaos – neither the military nor the alliance groups are in control of the town,” the resident told AFP by phone, requesting anonymity to protect their safety. “There is fighting every day, with heavy artillery shelling and air strikes as well.” [caption id=“attachment_13354032” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army pose for a photograph with the weapons allegedly seized from the Myanmar’s army outpost on a hill in Chinshwehaw town, Myanmar. AP[/caption] He said an important bridge was down, effectively cutting the town in two, and people from outlying villages were moving in to seek shelter from clashes in the countryside. “Thousands of people are stuck in town. We still have food to eat by sharing with each other,” he said, adding that 10 civilians had been killed and 10 wounded. The remoteness of the rugged, jungle-clad region—home to pipelines that supply oil and gas to China—and patchy communications make it difficult to verify casualty numbers in the fighting, which the United Nations fears has displaced thousands. Junta dismissed ‘propaganda’, vows to hit back A TNLA spokesperson said the military had called in air and artillery strikes. A spokesman for the military dismissed as “propaganda” claims that the alliance has captured several towns in Shan. However, Al Jazeera quoted government spokesman Zaw Min Tun as confirming that “government, administrative organisations and security organisations are no longer present” in Chinshwehaw.
The junta has vowed to hit back at the Brotherhood Alliance.
On Friday, Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in a speech to members of the State Administration Council, as the junta calls itself, said “the government will launch counterattacks” against the armed groups. MNDAA and TNLA fighters had “attacked local security camps and departmental offices in the Kokang region” bordering China, he was quoted as saying by the _Global New Light of Myanma_r newspaper. He also accused the Kachin Independence Army (KIA)—an ethnic armed group in neighbouring Kachin State—of attacking “transport facilities” and military bases, and warned the military would retaliate. Local media reported that the junta shelled the remote town of Laiza on the Chinese border, home to the KIA’s headquarters. AFP journalists were stopped on Saturday in China’s Yunnan province at a permanent police checkpoint about 50km up the valley from the border crossing of Chinshwehaw, which the Myanmar military said on Wednesday it has lost control over. On Tuesday, soldiers and officers were killed when the KIA attempted to seize a major road in Kachin state, according to the junta-controlled Global Light of New Myanmar newspaper. The military said it had carried out an “appropriate counterattack” without giving details. The “neighbouring country had been warned in advance”, it said. Myanmar’s military launched a second day of air strikes on Wednesday, bombing territory controlled by an ethnic armed group on the border with China, a rebel spokesman told AFP. A military jet struck a site near the town of Laiza in Kachin state at 12:45 pm local time Kachin Independence Army (KIA) spokesman Colonel Naw Bu told AFP. He said there were no details yet on casualties from the strike, adding that it came a day after a jet dropped three bombs on Laiza, killing one person and wounding twelve others. On Wednesday a junta spokesman said the military had lost control of Chin Shwe Haw town, a major trade hub on the border with China’s Yunnan province. What do experts say? That things could potentially get a lot worse – a lot soon. A piece in The Diplomat stated that “Operation 1027 could be the harbinger of an upswing of conflict across the country.” “While the situation is fluid, and the ultimate outcome of Operation 1027 is uncertain, the Alliance’s offensive shapes as one of the most significant to have taken place since the military coup of February 2021. Whether they can hold these areas in the face of the junta’s use of heavy artillery and air strikes remains unclear,” the piece argued. Speaking to Radio Free Asia, commentator Than Soe Naing said troops surrendering shows that morale in the military has suffered a blow. “The state of morale breakdown leading to surrender [within the military] is a new phenomenon under [junta chief] Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing," he said. “The junta’s army has lost its morale and no longer has the will to fight.” [caption id=“attachment_13354042” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] In this photo released from the The Military True News Information Team Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, right, leader of ruling military council, receives a gift from Wang Xiaohong, left, Chinese Minister for public security. AP[/caption] Richard Horsey, a political analyst who specializes in Myanmar politics, told DW, “This is the most significant military action that the regime has faced since the coup and there’s a number of reasons for that.” “It’s quite a big deal. And so far, the regime has not yet launched a full counteroffensive. They have their hands full in other places, that complicates life for them,” Horsey added, Thomas Kean, a Myanmar expert at the International Crisis Group, told DW the attack shows the junta is weak. “I think the attacks are significant. It’s probably the biggest single sort of offensive that we’ve seen since the coup,” he said.
Kean said the junta has an uphill battle on its hands when it comes to reclaiming territory.
“I think the military is gradually losing more and more ground and that’s what this offensive really shows us. In a lot of areas, it’s basically an occupying power and it controls urban areas and outposts. But it’s forces can’t move around that safely,” Kean said. “They’re always vulnerable to guerrilla attacks. It is sort of death by a thousand cuts. It’s been more of a chipping away at state and military control.” What does this mean for China? China, a key ally of Myanmar, is clearly worried.
Shan state is home to a planned billion-dollar rail link in its Belt and Road infrastructure project.
Impact Shorts
View AllEnze Han, an associate professor from the University of Hong Kong, told AFP that with the loss of Chinshwehaw and with other major roads to China blocked “at least currently… bilateral border trade between China (and) Myanmar has probably come to a stop.” Trade amounted to more than $1.8 billion between April and September this year, state media reported in September, a crucial source of revenue for the junta. On Tuesday China’s minister for public security met junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in the capital Naypyidaw, Myanmar state media said, for a second day of talks with top junta officials about the clashes. They discussed attacks by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) ethnic armed group “on security camps… with attempts to deteriorate peace and stability in the region”, the Global New Light said. Chinese police said only people living beyond the checkpoint or others who have gained special authorisation could pass through the crossing now, owing to recent security concerns about ongoing clashes occurring across the border. “We’re now in special circumstances,” an officer said. “Unless necessary, no one can go in.” In 2017, months of fighting between Myanmar’s army and ethnic insurgents in the Kokang border region claimed dozens of lives and sent thousands fleeing from their homes – many to China. The Diplomat piece also noted that previous such offensives in 2015 and 2009 sent thousands fleeing across the border into China. “Large-scale displacements in Northern Shan are likely imminent,” it quoted an observer as saying. China’s foreign affairs ministry had last week said it was “closely following” the fighting and called on all sides to prevent the situation from escalating. Beijing has now called for an “immediate” ceasefire between the Brotherhood Alliance and the junta. With inputs from agencies
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