How Donald Trump's visit to Japan is the first big test for its new PM Sanae Takaichi

US President Donald Trump will meet Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi tomorrow (October 28).

Trump, who is on a trip to Asia, also met Emperor Naruhito at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo today (October 27). Trump will then head to South Korea later this week before concluding his sojourn abroad in China.

Takaichi and Trump spoke on the phone for the first time over the weekend, during which she reassured him that the relationship between the countries was a ‘top priority’.

But why is Trump’s visit to Japan the first big test for its new prime minister, the first woman to hold the post in the history of the country?

Let’s take a closer look.

Setting the tone

This is the first face-to-face between Trump and Takaichi, 64, who has been in office for less than a week, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba. Though the two leaders spoke for about 10 minutes while Trump was aboard Air Force One, it is the personal meeting that will set the tone going forward – which is critical when it comes to the US president.

Takaichi seems to have made a good start by reassuring Trump about the US-Japan relationship.

“We agreed that we will work toward elevating the Japan-US alliance to new heights,” Takaichi told reporters. “I told him that strengthening the alliance is my administration’s top priority on the diplomatic and security front.”

She also conveyed to Trump that Japan will remain “an indispensable partner” in terms of the US’ strategies when it comes to China and the Indo-Pacific.

“We confirmed our shared commitment to further elevating the alliance to new heights,” she added. Takaichi said her impression of Trump was that “he is a very cheerful and engaging person.”

Takaichi spoke to Trump from Malaysia, where she is attending a regional forum, which began on Sunday. Trump spoke from Air Force One while on his way to Malaysia.

Trump, meanwhile, gushed over the ‘very good’ phone call, calling the Japanese Prime Minister ‘great, beautiful and very friendly’.

However, it must be noted that Takaichi has little experience working in international politics, barring a short stint at the office of Democrat Patricia Schroeder in the late 1980s.

Boosting domestic popularity

According to a poll in the Nikkei newspaper, her government’s approval rating is at a whopping 74 per cent. Meanwhile, a poll from broadcaster ANN pegs her approval at nearly 60 per cent. Newspapers Asahi and Mainichi quoted polls showing her popularity at 68 and 65 per cent respectively.

The meeting with Trump gives Takaichi a chance to boost her popularity further.

A key to this may be a possible announcement that Japan will purchase Ford F-150 trucks as well as soybeans and gas during Trump’s visit. The US president has already warmed to the idea.

“She has good taste,” Trump told reporters. “That’s a hot truck.”

Beneath the hospitality is the search for a strategy to navigate the increasingly complex trade relationship that Trump shook up earlier this year with tariffs. Trump wants allies to buy more American goods and also make financial commitments to build factories and energy infrastructure in the US.

Japan’s previous administration agreed in September to invest $550 billion in the US, which led Trump to trim a threatened 25 per cent tariff on Japanese goods to 15%. But Japan wants the investments to favour Japanese vendors and contractors.

Japan’s Economy and Trade Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, has said his ministry is compiling a list of projects in computer chips and energy to try to meet the investment target.

“As far as I know, I’m hearing that there are a number of Japanese companies that are showing interest,” he told reporters.

Regional implications

There are also regional implications to consider.

Takaichi, as is well known, is a noted China hawk – a fact that has not gone unnoticed in Beijing, which has still not congratulated her on ascending to the post. The development has set alarm bells ringing in certain quarters.

“Japan is walking a tightrope between the US and China,” Misako Iwamoto, a Mie University emeritus professor who specialises in politics and women’s studies, told CNN.

Takaichi has also thumbed China in the eye by meeting Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te in Taipei in April, where she called for collaboration on defence aimed at “maintaining our security guarantees”. Takaichi met Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung in Japan in July.

Asked about the lack of congratulations, China issued a terse statement with foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun saying, “China made proper arrangements according to diplomatic practices.”

“China and Japan are each other’s close neighbours. China’s fundamental position on its relations with Japan is consistent and clear,” Guo added.

“We hope Japan and China will meet each other halfway … honour its political commitments on major issues concerning history and Taiwan, uphold the political foundation of the bilateral relationship, and fully advance the China-Japan strategic relationship of mutual benefit.”

“China noted the result of the vote and considers it Japan’s internal affair,” Guo added on Tuesday – hardly a sentiment designed to increase warmth between the nations.

Their meetings in Japan come ahead of Trump’s sit-down with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday in South Korea.

Both the US and Japan have sought to limit China’s manufacturing ambitions, as the emergence of Chinese electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and advanced computer chips could undermine the American and Japanese
economies.

Tensions between Japan and South Korea have also been on the rise, with Takaichi taking a more nationalist view of their complicated history, particularly Japanese colonialism and the ‘comfort women’.

However, Takaichi has sought to play down any such issues with South Korea, saying she is a huge fan of ‘Korean skincare and K-dramas’.

Takaichi has vowed to increase Japan’s military spending to two per cent of its GDP. Trump has long complained about America’s allies depending on its military and has exhorted them to increase their defence budgets.

However, even that may not be enough for Trump, who wants allies to increase their spending to at least five per cent of their GDP. The US president is also demanding that Japan foot the bill for the US soldiers stationed in the country, particularly at the base in Okinawa.

The Abe effect

Trump and Takaichi during the call also reminisced about late former Japanese premier Shinzo Abe, a good friend of the US president and one of his favourite leaders during his first term in office and Takaichi’s political mentor.

Abe, remember, was the first foreign leader to visit Trump after his surprise election victory in 2016.

Abe presented Trump with a gold-coloured golf club, and the two men bonded over their affinity for the game.
Little surprise then that Takaichi has staffed her cabinet with several veterans who served under Abe, including Ryosei Akazawa, who conducted trade talks with the United States.

“It’s a clear message to both domestic and international audiences that she’s trying to carry on Abe’s line of thinking, rather than Kishida’s or Ishiba’s,” Rintaro Nishimura, a Tokyo-based senior associate at consulting firm The Asia Group, told CNN.

Trump over the weekend recalled Abe in fond terms, saying he was ‘one of my favourites’ and noting that Takaichi was a very, very close ally and friend of Abe. He has often expressed sorrow at Abe’s 2022 assassination.

For Trump, nothing is more important than building a personal equation – and Takaichi may be very fortunate in that regard to be able to build on the Abe relationship.

However, some have issued a word of caution.

“Because it’s Takaichi’s first diplomatic engagement, I think she wants to start with sort of a bang,” Nishimura said. “Succeeding the Abe-line rhetoric is definitely going to be part of this engagement, although some also suggest that leaning too heavily on the Abe line might not exactly be good for her in creating her own kind of portfolio, her status as Japan’s leader.”

With inputs from agencies