How does Imran Khan continue to influence Pakistan from behind bars?

Imran Khan may be out of sight, but he is not out of mind.

The former Pakistan prime minister, who has been in prison for a year, is continuing to take on the establishment.

The Pakistan police this week arrested nearly a dozen lawmakers from Imran’s Pakistan’s Tehreek-E-Insaaf (PTI) party in a raid on Parliament.

This came after the PTI, which was derecognised prior to the general election, held a massive rally on Sunday in a show of strength.

Imran, who has described the charges against him as ‘politically-motivated,’ this week also vowed that he would not negotiate with the establishment.

Imran on Thursday called on his party members to prepare for a nationwide street movement.

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“Our movement is a jihad for democracy. I call on the entire nation to take to the streets to save our freedom,” he said.

But what happened? How Imran continues to influence Pakistan from behind bars?  And what happens next?

Let’s take a closer look:

What happened?

First, let’s take a look at how we got here.

Imran swept to power in 2018 with the backing of Pakistan’s powerful military. The country has spent decades under military rule since its creation in 1947.

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No prime minister has, till date, completed their constitutionally mandated five-year term.

It was thought to be understood that the military would retain control over certain aspects of Pakistan’s affairs  – such as the policy towards India and the economy. Imran, for all intents and purposes would be the front man.

But Imran was not content to play the role of prime minister.

He also wanted his own people in place at high positions including at Pakistan’s spy agency the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

General Syed Asim Munir, who was appointed ISI chief by General Qamar Javed Bajwa, was removed from his post at Imran’s behest.

Munir served in the powerful position just eight months – the shortest stint ever.  Things quickly fell apart between Imran and the establishment – the code word for the military. Munir, though, would not go quietly.

He succeeded Bajwa as Pakistan Army chief.

By 2022, Pakistan was roiled by corruption and the COVID-19 pandemic – and the breach between Imran and the establishment was complete.

Imran was ousted as prime minister in 2022 after a no-confidence vote in Parliament. He is the only prime minister to have been removed by such a vote. Imran blamed a foreign hand – read USA – as well as the former army chief Bajwa for his ouster.

Then, in May 2023, Imran was arrested from a court house on corruption charges, as per B_BC._

His supporters rose up in protest cross the country.

Imran was released, only to be rearrested in August 2023 in a corruption case, as per Al Jazeera.

He was then quickly handed a three-year sentence and banned from politics for five years.

Wel over 100 cases have been levied against Imran including for committing treason and blasphemy and inciting violence and terrorism

Then, prior to the Pakistani general elections in 2024, the establishment banned his PTI.

Some organisations were reportedly even barred from mentioning Imran’s name.

Many of the candidates were rounded up and put behind bars or went into hiding. Others simply left the party. Those that were left stood as Independents backed by Imran. The polls threw up a surprise – the Independents got the most seats.

Still, Imran’s rivals joined hands and formed the new government.

How does he continue to influence Pakistan?

Imran was first sent to Attock Jail in Pakistan’s Punjab province, then later shifted to Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail.

As per India Today, Imran was given the identification number 804.

But even behind bars, his hold over the public imagination remains.

As per India Today, searches on social media platforms like X display songs, posters and chants devoted to Imran.

A clip shows a crowd at a Pakistan Super League (PSL) game chanting Qaidi Number 804. A couple was seen wearing jerseys emblazoned with the number 804.

A clip shows a song on Qaidi Number 804 being played at a motor rally.

Arab News reported how customers in Peshawar during Eid went wild in their search of leather sandals with the number 804.

“I made and named this sandal ‘Qaidi 804’ this year and its demand went up abruptly. People have been asking for it, leading to its current shortage,” Chacha Noor-ud-Din told the outlet.

Qaidi number 804 T-shirts are also available on Amazon, as per India Today.

Meanwhile, Imran hasn’t lost any of his defiance, according to those close to him.

“There is still a swagger about him,” Aleema Khanum, Imran’s sister, told BBC. “He’s got no needs, no wants - only a cause.”

He is now openly pointing the finger at Munir – who he says is running the country – for the current crackdown on his political party.

What’s the latest flare-up?

On Sunday, the PTI held a massive rally in Islamabad.

As per India Today, tens of thousands of people attended Sunday’s rally.

Imran’s followers demanded his release from jail and ‘haqeeqi azadi.'

The chant “ mera yaar, tera yaar, qaidi number 804" – which has been heard at Pakistan Super League Games – was also taken up by the faithful.

More importantly, PTI leaders made speeches threatening the government and the military.

As per The New York Times, Ali Amin Gandapur, chief minister of the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, vowed to hold a mass protest in Lahore.

The PTI’s rival, the PMLN, currently governs Punjab Province.

“Put your house in order,” Gandapur warned. “I am not scared of the army uniform,”

This was seemingly a threat not to try Imran in a military court.

Then, on Monday, the Pakistan police arrested several lawmakers of the PTI in a raid in Islamabad.

As per Al Jazeera, the PTI said at least 13 of their members were arrested including party chief Gohar Khan and senior leaders Shoaib Shaheen and Sher Afzal Marwat.

Video footage showed some lawmakers being rounded up by the police and shoved into cars.

As per The New York Times, some lawmakers even attempted to shut themselves up in their offices to avoid being taken in.

The PTI condemned the raid.

“This is an attack on democracy and Pakistan’s constitution,” PTI lawmaker Ali Muhammad Khan was quoted as saying by The New York Times.

Even those in government appeared disturbed by the events.

“What will happen tomorrow?” Syed Naveed Qamar, a member of the Pakistan Peoples Party, told the newspaper. “Will they come for you, on the floor of the Parliament?”

But others tried to defend the action.

“It was a reaction to what happened at the rally,” defence minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, was quoted as saying by the newspaper.

What do experts say?

That the PTI has begun making a concerted bid to free Imran.

Zaigham Khan, a political analyst in Islamabad, told The New York Times, “It seems that PTI sees no path to securing Imran Khan’s release from prison through a negotiated settlement with the military and has instead chosen to use this moment to apply pressure on the establishment and initiate a political campaign.”

Experts have warned that the authorities won’t let Imran off so easily – especially if he refused to bend.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre think tank in Washington, told BBC, “There was no expectation that Mr Khan was going to do anything that would make it easy for him to get out of jail.”

The military “don’t ease up when they decide there’s a political figure that they want to lock up”, Kugelman added. “That has especially been the case with Khan.”

With inputs from agencies