How big is Hezbollah's arsenal? Can its missiles breach Israel's air defences?

It looks like a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is on the horizon.

The Lebanese terrorist group, which is an ally of Hamas, has been launching attacks on Israel almost every day since the Palestinian group’s October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in the Gaza Strip.

But recent weeks have witnessed attacks and rhetoric both escalate – spurring fears of an all-out conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

The two previously went to war in 2006 – a 34-day conflict that ended in a stalemate.

On Sunday, the Iran-backed movement said it launched its biggest ever air operation when it sent explosive drones at a mountaintop Israeli military intelligence base in the annexed Golan Heights.

Tens of thousands of people have fled both sides of the border. Israeli strikes have killed more than 330 Hezbollah fighters and around 90 civilians in Lebanon.

Israel says attacks from Lebanon have killed 21 soldiers and 10 civilians.

Now, a new report from the Washington Post is shedding fresh light on Hezbollah’s arsenal.

But how big is it? Can its missiles breach Israel’s air defences?

Let’s take a closer look:

 Experts say it is difficult to establish exactly how many weapons are in Hezbollah’s arsenal.

The group keeps its arsenal under close wraps.

Hezbollah’s main supporter and weapons supplier is Iran.

Analysts say Tehran sends arms to the group by land via Iraq and Syria, both West Asian countries where Iran has close ties and influence. Many of the Shi’ite Muslim group’s weapons are Iranian, Russian or Chinese models.

Most of the details about the weapons comes from statements made by the group including its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Nasrallah has repeatedly said his group holds advanced weaponry capable of striking deep into Israeli territory.

Hezbollah holds a vast arsenal of mostly small, portable and unguided surface-to-surface artillery rockets, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank

The group is thought to have a bigger and more powerful stockpile than the Lebanon’s Army.

As per Washington Post, Hezbollah has received massive shipments of drones and rockets from Tehran.

It has also begun producing its own weapons.

Unlike most other militias, it also has air defence capabilities.

Hezbollah has guided and unguided rockets, antitank artillery, ballistic and anti-ship missiles and explosives-laden unmanned aerial vehicles.

The group is thought to have stockpiled between 130,000 and 150,000 rockets and missiles.

While most of these are lower-grade, unguided munitions, the group has claimed that it also has precision munitions.

The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies quoted Israeli experts as saying that Hezbollah can fire at least 2,500 rockets per day at Israel for eight weeks straight.

The FDD claims the group has 40,000 to 80,000 short-range rockets and 60,000 to 80,000

Hezbollah uses Burkan rockets – an improvised munition that can be put together easily.

As per Forbes, the Burkan-2 is part of the family of Scud missiles – famously used during the first Gulf war.

The missile rocket is based on the Iranian Qiam 1/Scud-C, the Iranian Shahab-2/Scud-C or Scud-D missile.

The Houthis have been using the Burkan rockets since 2017.

Nasrallah has claimed these rockets carry “a payload of 300 to 500 kilogrammes.”

Shaan Shaikh, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and deputy director of its Missile Defense Project, told Forbes, “You can imagine (what happens) when half a ton of explosives fall on Israeli posts.”

“I mentioned a reported 130,000 rounds of total missiles [in the 2018 report],”’ Shaikh added. “That is divided into various types. A lot of it will be smaller artillery rockets, unguided projectiles used mostly for harassment attacks.”

Fabian Hinz, a defence and military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the weapon has become a “signature weapon of Iran-supported groups in the region.”

The newspaper quoted the Alma Research and Education Center, an Israeli think-tank, as saying the rocket can be launched from a ground launcher.

It can do “extensive destruction” up to 500 feet from where it is launched.

Hezbollah has also been using Katyusha rockets.

Pioneered by the Soviet Union and used by Iran, these have a range of between 19 and 38 kilometres.

As per Forbes, the Katyusha rockets carry six kilos of high explosive or submunitions – both of which disperse anti-personnel fragments.

Hinz said the group “can fire lots of them because they are cheap and, until certain ranges, they work.”

Hezbollah also has larger ballistic missiles like the Fateh 110 – which could reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

As per Forbes, the Fateh 110, with its control and guidance systems, is an upgraded version of the unguided Zelzal-2.

The Hezbollah also has the M-600 – a Syrian version of the Fateh 110.

The M-600 missiles, which are guided by satellite, hold warheads of around 450 to 500 kilos.

They have a range of 250 to 300 kilometres and can potentially reach Tel Aviv.

According to FDD, when it comes to short-range missiles Hezbollah also has the Falaq-1 and Falaq 2 and the Shanin weapons.

The former have a range of 10 to 11 kilometres, while the Shanin-1 has a range of 13 kilometers.

For long-range weapons, Hezbollah also has Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 – which have a range of 43 and 75 kilometers respectively.

It also has the Raad-2 and Raad-3 and the Khaibar-1.

The former have a range of 60 to 70 kilometers and the latter has a range of around 100 kilometers.

Shaikh in November told Forbes that Hezbollah has been biding its time when it comes to using its new and modified missiles.

“That’s been a central objective, not just increasing the number of missiles that [Hezbollah] has but their accuracy,” Shaikh said.

Hezbollah in 2023 used guided missiles extensively in the cross-border clashes, particularly against Israeli tanks.

In August 2023, the group announced it had a weapon dubbed “God’s Revenge”, designed to fire Russian Kornet anti-tank missiles.

The double launcher is capable of “accurately hitting targets simultaneously and destroying them”, according to Hezbollah’s official media.

Hezbollah first used anti-ship weaponry in 2006 against an Israeli naval vessel, the INS Hanit, stationed off Beirut.

In 2019, the group published video footage showcasing Chinese-made C-802 and C-704 anti-ship missiles.

In 2022, before Lebanon and Israel reached a US-mediated maritime border deal, Hezbollah threatened to strike Israeli off-shore gas platforms.

Hezbollah has also used an Iranian-made guided missile known as “al-Mas”, according to a report by the pro-Iran Arabic broadcaster al-Mayadeen.

A report by Israel’s Alma Research and Education Center published in April described the al-Mas as an anti-tank weapon that can hit targets beyond the line of sight following an arched trajectory, enabling it to strike from above.

The missile is part of a family of weapons made by Iran through reverse engineering based on the Israeli Spike missile family, the report said. It said the missile was a “flagship product” of Iran’s defence industry in Hezbollah’s possession.

Hezbollah said on June 6 it had fired at an Israeli warplane. A source familiar with its arsenal said it was the first time the group had done so, calling it a milestone, while declining to identify the weapon used.

Hezbollah has also shot down Israeli drones during this conflict using surface-to-air missiles.

The first such incident was on Oct. 29 when Hezbollah for the first time said it had used anti-aircraft weaponry it had long been thought to have.

Hezbollah has used such missiles several times since, downing Israeli Hermes 450 and Hermes 900 drones.

Hezbollah has repeatedly launched explosive one-way drones, including in some of its more complicated attacks. It launched some to distract Israeli air defences, while explosives-laden drones were flown at targets.

More recently, the group has announced attacks that use drones that drop bombs and return to Lebanon, rather than just flying at their targets.

Hezbollah’s drones include what it says are the locally-assembled Ayoub and Mersad models, which analysts say are cheap and relatively easy to produce.

Far stronger than 2006

Hezbollah is far stronger than it was in during its 2006 war with Israel.

That conflict left over 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 in Israel, largely soldiers, dead.

Nasrallah has said the biggest change in Hezbollah’s arsenal since 2006 is the expansion of its precision guidance systems.

Hinting at the damage it could do, Nasrallah in 2016 made a veiled threat that Hezbollah could hit ammonia storage tanks in the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, saying the result would be “like a nuclear bomb”.

“Hezbollah has robustly expanded the quantity and the quality of its arsenal,” said Dina Arakji from Control Risks consultancy.

“The group in 2006 reportedly had about 15,000 rockets, while estimates over the past couple of years suggest that this number has multiplied by almost 10 times,” she said.

The group has also gained significant combat experience after years of fighting on the side of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s civil war.

In August 2023, Nasrallah said it would take just “a few high-precision missiles” for the group to destroy Israeli targets including “civilian and military airports, airbases, power stations” and the Dimona nuclear facility.

In February 2022, Nasrallah said Hezbollah had “the capacity to transform our missiles into precision missiles”.

In September 2018, Nasrallah said his group had acquired “precision missiles” despite Israeli efforts to prevent it from doing so.

Can its overwhelm Israel’s defences?

Israel is one of the best-armed nations in West Asia.

Its air defences includes the advanced American F-35 fighter jet, missile defence batteries including the American-made Patriot, the Iron Dome rocket-defence system and a pair of missile-defence systems developed with the US, the Arrow and David’s Sling. 

Forbes quoted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as saying in November that its air defence systems including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, MIM-104 Patriot and Arrow were working simultaneously for the first time.

“All of these provide protection in every layer of aerial defence and enable optimal protection of the Israeli home front,” the IDF said.

But experts say it is possible that if Hezbollah launches hundreds of missiles and rockets at Israel during an all-out conflict, the Iron Dome could be penetrated.

“They’ve already spent a lot of Iron Dome interceptors during the war in Gaza,” Hinz said.

“How many do they have left?”

Experts say how much damage the Fateh ballistic missiles could do remains an open question.

“How effective are David’s Sling and Arrow interceptors against these missiles Shaikh said. “Can the IDF detect, track and fire on these missiles while they’re being prepped for launch?”

“There’s a lot we don’t know,” Shaikh concluded.

But the piece in Forbes said things look dire for Israel in case of an all-out war.

“There is little doubt that Hezbollah’s massive stock of rockets and missiles has a higher “proportion of precision-guided projectiles than ever. If the Lebanese extremists choose to employ them en masse, Israel will find it very hard to stop them,” the piece concluded.

With inputs from agencies