How Biden’s ‘quiet diplomacy’ on Israel and Palestine has backfired

The Biden administration made a notable decision regarding its policy during its first few months in office: it would deprioritise a half-century of prominent efforts by previous American presidents, particularly Democratic ones, to broker an extensive and lasting peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians. Many US administrations, since Richard Nixon, tried to lend a hand at Camp David summits, shuttle diplomacy, and other large-scale attempts to persuade Israeli and Palestinian leaders into negotiations to resolve the differences that are the root of 75 years of West Asia hostilities. Joe Biden has not, significantly, as much as other recent presidents. Instead, early on, officials in the administration outlined what they called Biden’s approach of quiet diplomacy. They argued for more modest advances in Palestinian rights and lives under the hardliner Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which has promoted settlement in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and consists of coalition partners that oppose to the two-state solution supported by America. The more conservative strategy suited Biden’s resolve to shift his foreign policy priorities from West Asia flashpoints to China. Neglected Israel-Palestine conflict back in the spotlight The Hamas attack on Israel on Saturday, 7 October and Israel’s retaliatory military bombardment of Gaza, however, brought the long-term risks of neglecting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict back into the forefront. As Israeli-Palestinian violence intensifies with each passing day, the United States’ angry Arab allies are criticising the country for being passive in the situation. Biden sent carrier strike groups to the region as a result of the deadly Hamas militants’ attack from Gaza and Israel’s military’s intensifying response, which have murdered thousands of civilians in Israel and Gaza, threatened to escalate the conflict, and have caused Palestinian refugees to flee across borders. [caption id=“attachment_13261862” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Palestinians look for survivors in buildings destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in Deir el-Balah, southern Gaza Strip. AP[/caption] More than a million people have fled their homes in the Gaza Strip ahead of expected Israeli invasion. Irate Arab allies warn the US In Cairo this past weekend, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi was one of a succession of Arab leaders to warn Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is scrambling through West Asian capitals to try to contain the conflict, that the Israel-Gaza war threatens the stability of the entire region. Following his visit to Israel, Biden is likely to hear the same as he meets with leaders of Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority in Jordan on Wednesday. Sissi, who fears the Israeli military offensive will push Gaza’s 2.3 million people across the border into Egypt, cast blame on the near-disappearance of any international pressure on Netanyahu’s government and Palestinians to return to negotiations. Sissi cited “a buildup of outrage and hatred for more than 40 years” and the lack of any “horizon to solve the Palestinian cause; one that gives hope to the Palestinians” for a state with a capital in East Jerusalem. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, pointed to Saudis’ “repeated warnings of the danger of the explosion." Arab leaders “are very aware this is going to keep blowing up. And they might ride it out this time, they might ride it out next time, as they have in the past,” said Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, Lebanon. “But it’s not actually a comfortable position for them to be endlessly living in," with endless cycles of Israeli and Palestinian wars that threaten the region’s peace and economies, said Sayigh, who accused the US of encouraging Netanyahu to think there was no need to address Palestinian concerns. Underscoring his administration’s diminished emphasis on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Biden’s call to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas this past weekend amid the building Gaza war was the American leader’s first since taking office. In 1973, Arab nations’ surprise attack on Israel, and Arabs’ devastating oil embargo on the US and other countries for their support of Israel in that fight, convinced US leaders that a lasting resolution to Palestinian demands for statehood was in America’s strategic interest. [caption id=“attachment_13261882” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Protesters calling for a ceasefire in Gaza block an entrance to the White House in Washington. AP[/caption] But after some early successes, recurring violence, the disappointments of past failed mediation efforts, and the scale of the disputes helped derail the US push. By the time Biden, a strong supporter of the state of Israel, took office, any support for major negotiations among Israelis was faint. To be sure, there’s little to suggest ambitious engagement by Biden on Israeli-Palestinian issues would have made immediate progress, or done anything to discourage the attack by Hamas, whose charter calls for the destruction of Israel. Even after a 2021 burst of fighting between Hamas and Israel, administration figures argued that a big push on peace efforts would undermine more easily won goals, like cease-fires with Hamas. More on Biden’s normalisation policy Instead, Biden has enthusiastically followed the new path that predecessor Donald Trump had laid out on West Asia peacemaking: lobbying for so-called normalisation deals with Arab countries, absent any Israeli-Palestinian accord. Under Trump, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco all signed normalisation deals establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Up until 7 October, Biden appeared to be fast closing in on brokering a normalisation deal with the biggest prize of all, regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia. Then, Hamas’s breakout from Gaza shattered what National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had hailed as a period of West Asia calm. The violence has been the deadliest of five wars between Hamas and Israel, killing more than 1,400 people in Israel and nearly 2,800 in Gaza. It’s not clear what happens to Biden’s normalisation push now. Despite their angry comments and varying degrees of popular support among their public for the Palestinian cause, America’s Arab partners are pragmatists, and like the US and Israel, adversaries of Hamas and other Iran-backed groups. Additionally, the Biden administration’s immediate and all-in rallying to Israel’s mounting defence after Hamas’s 7 October massacres may only heighten Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s desire to lock in that kind of security alliance with the US for the kingdom, many analysts are arguing. “I think Gulf partners are looking at the quick, decisive response that the US has provided Israel, and are incredibly jealous,” said Jonathan Lord, director of the West Asia security program at the Centre for a New American Security think tank. Brokering those alliances would stabilise the West Asia in themselves, no Israeli-Palestinian peace accord needed, supporters have argued. The nightmare unfolding now for Israeli and Palestinian civilians argues differently, when it comes to Biden’s approach, critics say. “As long as the core issues stay unresolved, ignoring them does not make them go away,” said Yousef Munayyer, who heads the Palestine-Israel program at the Arab Centre, a Washington think tank. “And I think that’s a lesson for everybody.” With inputs from The Associated Press