 "Can Hezbollah’s missiles, drones overwhelm Israel’s famous Iron Dome in case of full-blown war?")
Israel has been trading fire with Iran-backed Hezbollah for the past eight months now. However, in the past two weeks, the intensity has gone up considerably. On June 12, a day after Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed a Hezbollah commander, the group unleashed a volley of missiles aimed at northern Israel.
On Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned on Tuesday that a decision on an all-out war with Hezbollah was coming soon. Military experts and political analysts are now concerned about whether Israel’s renowned Iron Dome defense system can withstand the sheer volume and sophistication of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal.
What are the shortcomings of the Iron Dome? Can Hezbollah exploit these to overwhelm the defence system? We explain.
But first..
What is the Iron Dome? How does it work?
The Iron Dome is an advanced air defence system developed by Israel to intercept and destroy short-range rockets, artillery shells, and mortars. It was officially put into service in 2011 and has since been a cornerstone of Israel’s defensive strategy. The system uses radar to detect incoming threats and launches interceptor missiles to neutralise them before they can cause harm.
The Iron Dome comprises three main components: detection and tracking radar, battle management and weapon control system (BMC), and the missile-firing unit. When the radar detects an incoming projectile, it calculates its trajectory and determines whether it poses a threat to populated areas or critical infrastructure. If it does, the BMC directs one or more interceptor missiles to intercept the threat mid-air, minimising the risk of damage on the ground.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe system’s impressive success rate, reported to be around 90 per cent, has made it a model for other nations seeking to bolster their own defensive capabilities. Its ability to protect against a range of threats has provided a sense of security to Israel’s civilian population, particularly in regions frequently targeted by rocket fire.
What are the shortcomings of the Iron Dome?
Despite its praised effectiveness, the Iron Dome is not infallible.
Capacity limitation: One critical vulnerability lies in its capacity limitations. While the system is capable of handling a barrage of incoming threats, there is a threshold beyond which it can become saturated. This is what happened in October last year when Hamas’ barrage f around 5,000 munitions hit Israel.
High-precision munitions: CNN quoted an Israeli official as saying that it would be more likely that some Iron Dome batteries are overpowered if Hezbollah conducted a large-scale attack principally using precision guided weapons, which could be challenging for the system to defend against.
Weak interception ability: The most challenging aspect of intercepting an artillery rocket is the need to destroy the warhead. If the interceptor hits the back end of the rocket, it only damages the empty rocket motor tube, which has no effect on the havoc that will be wreaked by the warhead. The only successful intercept is one that destroys the artillery rocket warhead, as this prevents it from reaching the ground and exploding.
A 2014 analysis in the MIT Technology Review by Theodore Postol found that the actual interception rate might be as low as 5 per cent, primarily because the interceptor missiles often fail to destroy the warheads of incoming rockets. Instead, they may only divert the rockets’ paths, leaving a significant margin for error and potential damage.
Can Hezbollah exploit these shortcomings?
Hezbollah is likely to be able to overwhelm the Iron Dome batteries in Israel. CNN quoted three US officials as saying that they have serious concerns that in the event of a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group could overwhelm Israel’s air defenses in the north.
The numbers advantage: Hezbollah could easily follow a strategy similar to that used by Hamas in the 7 October attack. The group has a missile stockpile, estimated at 150,000 weapons. Using a bunch of them at once could presents a formidable challenge. In a full-scale conflict, a coordinated, massive salvo could potentially overwhelm the Iron Dome, allowing some missiles to penetrate and cause damage.
The distance factor: Back in April, when Iran, in its retaliatory attack for Israel’s strike on its embassy in Syria, sent missiles flying towards Israel, the Iron Dome was able to stop the attack quickly. That’s because the distance between Iran and Israel is quite significant. The time it takes for a launched missile from Iran to reach Israel is ample for readying defences. That is unlikely to be the case if Hezbollah attacks from its base in Lebanon, close to the Israeli border.
Past breach: Hezbollah recently claimed that it has struck and destroyed an Iron Dome battery located at an army base in Ramot Naftali, northern Israel. This alleged attack, if confirmed, would mark the first documented strike on such an anti-aircraft system. Hezbollah released a video showing aerial photos of the base and footage purportedly captured by the missile used in the strike. This incident highlights the group’s increasing capability to target and potentially overwhelm Israel’s missile defense systems.
Use of cheap drones: Drones have proven effective against the Iron Dome system due to their ability to operate at high speeds and low altitudes, often flying undetected. Hezbollah has used commercial-grade drones to gather intelligence and drop explosives, according to The Washington Post. These drones can maneuver around natural obstacles like mountains and canyons, exploiting blind spots in Israel’s detection systems. The Israeli military may mistake them for birds or its own drones, and even when identified, their erratic flight paths make them difficult to intercept. This capability allows Hezbollah to conduct reconnaissance and could help in strike missions against the Iron Dome, too.
In a nutshell
While the Iron Dome has proven to be a robust defense system, it is not invincible. Hezbollah’s extensive and technologically sophisticated arsenal, combined with strategic and tactical planning, presents a formidable challenge. Whether Hezbollah can completely overpower the Iron Dome remains uncertain, but the potential for significant breaches in Israel’s defense grid in a large-scale conflict is a real and concerning possibility. The international community watches closely as tensions escalate, knowing that the implications of such a conflict could extend far beyond the immediate region.
With inputs from agencies
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