Hardeep Singh Nijjar killing: How India's strong global ties have left Canada isolated

Tensions between India and Canada are at an all-time high. The claim made by Justin Trudeau that India arranged the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar has put Western governments in an uncomfortable position. Despite their grave concern, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia have all been promoting stronger ties with New Delhi. India serves not just as a strategic bulwark against the rapidly developing China, but also as a partner in Russia’s economic isolation following the invasion of Ukraine. Britain is also near to reaching a post-Brexit trade agreement with India, possibly as soon as next month, and Downing Street indicated on Tuesday that talks would “continue as before” while Canadian inquiries continue. Meanwhile, the United States, Australia, and Japan are partners with India in the Quad. Is this to say that Canada is diplomatically outgunned? Let’s take a closer look at how India’s global relations have isolated Canada in Khalistan row. Allies courted India Canada this week divulged it had intelligence possibly linking Indian government agents to the murder of a pro-Khalistan Sikh leader, the kind of news that usually sparks uproar among democratic allies. Not this time. India is being courted by the United States and others as a counterweight to China, and this means Canada, with a population of just 40 million people, is severely outgunned diplomatically. **Also Read: What's at stake for India and Canada as ties between the two countries nosedive?** “India is important in Western calculations for balancing China, and Canada is not,” said Stephanie Carvin, a professor of international relations at Ottawa’s Carleton University to Reuters. “This really does put Canada offside among all other Western countries,” she said in a phone interview. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Monday that Canada was “actively pursuing credible allegations” that Indian agents had potentially been involved in the murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June. At that point Ottawa had already been discussing the matter with key allies such as the Five Eyes intelligence sharing alliance, which also includes the United States, Britain, Australia and New Zealand. The results so far have been muted. Britain refused to publicly criticise India and said bilateral trade talks will continue as planned. UK foreign minister James Cleverly was the highest-ranking person to respond publicly. “All countries should respect sovereignty and the rule of law,” he tweeted. We communicate with our Canadian counterparts on a regular basis regarding serious claims brought in the Canadian Parliament. It is critical that Canada’s inquiry is completed and the offenders are brought to justice." Indeed, his statement about the affair did not mention India by name. [caption id=“attachment_13149972” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] India serves not just as a strategic bulwark against the rapidly developing China, but also as a partner in Russia’s economic isolation following the invasion of Ukraine. PTI[/caption] Britain is in a difficult position, caught between supporting Canada and antagonising India, who it wants as a trading partner and ally to help confront China, said Chietigj Bajpaee, India expert at the Chatham House think tank in London. “Short of there being any definitive evidence of India’s involvement, I think the UK response is likely to remain muted,” he said. A free trade deal would be a “major political win” for both India and Britain, Bajpaee said. Canada’s claims has “deeply concerned” Australia, according to a representative for Foreign Minister Penny Wong. While adding that the investigations were still ongoing, Australia went on to say that it has conveyed “concerns” to India at “senior levels.” “We are closely engaged with partners on developments. We have conveyed our concerns at senior levels to India,” Australian foreign minister’s spokesperson told SBS News. ‘Waiting game’ White House national security advisor John Kirby said the United States was “deeply concerned,” and encouraged Indian officials to cooperate in any investigation. India has dismissed the claims of involvement in the murder. The Washington Post reported Trudeau had pushed for a joint statement condemning India at last week’s Group of 20 summit in New Delhi and was turned down by the United States and others. Kirby said “any reports that we rebuffed Canada in any way whatsoever are false, and we will continue to coordinate and consult with them on this.” **Also Read: Who was Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the Khalistani terrorist at centre of India-Canada standoff?** The muted response to Trudeau’s allegations is stark when compared to the uproar after Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned by nerve agent in England in 2018. Britain, the United States, Canada and others threw out more than 100 Russian diplomats to punish Moscow for an attack it has always denied carrying out. “Our Five Eyes partners are understandably reluctant to really wade into this, given everybody’s interest in advancing ties with India, in the context of the ongoing tension with China,” said Wesley Wark of the Centre for International Governance Innovation think tank in Waterloo, Ontario. “It’s a bit of a waiting game. If the Canadians come up with very solid evidence about egregious Indian state involvement in an assassination attempt, I think we’ll hear more from our allies in support,” he said. **Also Read: Should Indian students, diaspora worry amid souring Indo-Canada relations?** With allies unwilling to contemplate any kind of joint condemnation of India, the Canadian options now look limited, at least until it can provide incontrovertible evidence. “If we don’t get our allies to support this, either publicly or privately, Canada’s not going to be able to do a great deal to move India,” said Richard Fadden, former head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. “And I think the greatest thing we can aspire to in the short term or the medium term is to get India not to do this again,” he told CTV. Canadian government sources indicated they would have preferred to wait longer before making a statement, but felt they had to act, given some domestic media outlets were about to break the story. [caption id=“attachment_13149992” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The Washington Post reported Trudeau had pushed for a joint statement condemning India at last week’s Group of 20 summit in New Delhi and was turned down by the United States and others. Reuters[/caption] Trudeau would have never spoken “out loud if we didn’t have the information lining up into a fact base”, said one source, adding that they hoped more information would come soon. Canada has not made public the intelligence it has because there is an active murder investigation, the senior source said. **Also Read: How the Khalistan movement grew and flourished in Canada** “On the cusp of the global opportunity for India, they absolutely need to handle this responsibly - for their own interests,” the source said. What lies ahead What if it was publicly proven that India was behind the killing of Nijjar? According to Chietigj Bajpaee, a south Asia expert with the Chatham House thinktank, it would be a gamechanger, placing India into a rather different club of countries. “India wants to be seen as a responsible global power. It just hosted the G20 summit, and it wants to be the voice of the global south. The last thing it should want is to be associated with regimes like Saudi Arabia, accused of the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, and Russia, perpetrator of the Salisbury poisonings,” Bajpaee told The Guardian. According to former British insiders, the UK has long been watching Indian intelligence activity in the UK, amid allegations of targeting nationalist Sikhs and spreading anti-Pakistan misinformation. However, given the larger diplomatic duties there has been little need to discuss the problem openly. While China was the primary focus of the recently approved National Security Act, which extended the definition of espionage to include “assisting a foreign intelligence service,” it is thought that worries about India were also there, reports The Guardian. With inputs from Reuters