Hardeep Singh Nijjar killing: Does spat with Canada threaten India-US bonhomie?

Will India and Canada’s spat threaten New Delhi’s ties with Washington? A top US official has called the allegations Canada has levied against India in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader ‘very serious’ and said Washington supports Ottawa’s investigation. Meanwhile, it has been reported that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invited President Joe Biden for Republic Day celebrations on 26 January, 2024. Let’s take a closer look: What happened? US National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby in an interview with CNN said the allegations were ‘very serious’. Kirby was quoted as saying, “I’m going to protect diplomatic conversations and I’ll leave it at that. Certainly the President is mindful of these serious allegations, and they are very serious. And we support Canada’s efforts to investigate this.” Kirby was responding to a question on Canada’s allegations that “agents of the Indian government” were involved in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, 45, the chief of the banned Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF). Kirby, calling on New Delhi to cooperate, added, “We believe a fully transparent comprehensive investigation is the right approach so that we can all know exactly what happened and of course, we encourage India to cooperate with that.”

Nijjar, one of India’s most-wanted terrorists, carried a cash reward of ₹10 lakh on his head.

He was shot dead by two unidentified gunmen outside a gurdwara in Surrey in the western Canadian province of British Columbia on June 18. Kirby was asked about Trudeau raising the matter with President Joe Biden privately before going public and what information the Canadian leader shared with the US President about the matter. “I’m going to be careful about what I say here to preserve the sanctity of this investigation and leave it for Canada to talk about the underpinning information, what more they’re trying to learn. We want to respect that process and it’s their investigation,” he added. [caption id=“attachment_13140842” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Hardeep Singh Nijjar, one of India’s most-wanted terrorists, was killed earlier this year.[/caption] When further asked about possible repercussions, Kirby said, “Let’s not get ahead of where we are. There’s an active investigation. We think it needs to be fully transparent, comprehensive. We know that Canadians will work to that end”. “Again, we urge India to cooperate with that investigation so that the facts can take investigators where they go and then once we have all that facts, and we have conclusions that we can draw from that, then you can start to look at recommendations or behaviours you might want to pursue.” In an interview with CBS News, Kirby said that “these allegations are serious and we know that the Canadians are investigating it. We certainly don’t want to get ahead of that investigation”. “We urge India to cooperate in that investigation as well. This is the kind of an attack here that obviously we all want to know is handled in a transparent, thorough way. And that the Canadian people can get answers to this. So we’re going stay in touch with our partners, both countries, and again we want to see the investigation be able to proceed unhindered and let the facts take it where it may,”  Kirby added. Canada sought public condemnation: Report The Washington Post on Tuesday reported that Canadian officials sought a public condemnation of the killing of Nijjar weeks before it made its explosive allegations. However, Canada was met with reluctance from its allies including the US. The alleged assassination of Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, on 18 June, led to behind-the-scenes discussions among senior officials from the Five Eyes countries in the weeks leading up to the September Group of 20 summit in New Delhi.

However, no public mention was made before the summit.

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement of “credible allegations” in the parliament caused a significant rupture in bilateral relations with India, resulting in the expulsion of an Indian diplomat in Ottawa. “Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar,” Trudeau said on Monday. Trudeau on Tuesday told reporters that the case had far-reaching consequences in international law, and urged the Indian government to take the matter seriously and help Canada fully investigate the matter. A senior Canadian government source on Tuesday told Reuters that Ottawa  worked “very closely” with Washington on intelligence that Indian agents had been potentially involved in Nijjar’s killing in British Columbia earlier this year. “We’ve been working with the U. very closely, including on the public disclosure yesterday,” the source said. The evidence in Canada’s possession would be shared “in due course”, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.  What do experts say?  Experts say that Western nations including the US are worried about a possible blow-up between India and Canada. Many of these Western nations see India as a counter to China in the region and a bulwark against Beijing. A piece in the BBC, noting how India is a ‘key player’ on the grand chessboard that is geopolitics, stated that a divide is the last thing Western nations need. “Not only is it a growing power - the most populous country in the world, the fifth-biggest economy. But it is also seen by the West as a potential bulwark against China,” the piece noted. [caption id=“attachment_13147672” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Reuters[/caption] The piece noted that India’s importance was apparent by the fact that the communique issued at the recent G20 in New Delhi did not condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “They chose to protect their relationship with India by avoiding a row over the statement, a choice which angered some in Kyiv,” the piece noted. The piece also added that countries choosing sides is a prevalent fear among diplomats in Western nations. Taking to X on Tuesday, RAND Corporation analyst Derek J. Grossman wrote that the ‘bombshell accusation’ could be a most significant test of the strength of US-India partnership since the early 2000s.

However, Grossman also added that Washington will look to keep India on-side.

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“That said, the US will pull out all the stops to keep India close by its side to help counter China, which could mean staying out of this mess," the analyst further said. “The Biden administration is in a no-win situation with this latest bombshell,” Grossman told Bloomberg. “If it sides with Ottawa, then New Delhi will be up in arms and, once again, question the loyalty of Washington. If it sides with New Delhi, then the US is contradicting a NATO ally.” Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst, pointed out the dilemma facing Western governments, acknowledging Canada as an ally but valuing their relationship with India as a key strategic partner. “There is this evergreen challenge that the US and some of its allies face with India, concerns about what they regard as democratic backsliding,” Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center told the outlet. “But at the same time they want to ensure they don’t risk imperiling relations with a country that they view as strategically critical. Honestly, I think Washington will just stay quiet.” Vivek Mishra, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, added that the US is in a tough spot. “I expect there will certainly be back-channel discussion between the US and India on how to proceed further,” Mishra said. “With Canada being a NATO ally and India being a strategic partner ally, the US will have to do the tightrope walk.” Others have called for a time-out. Vivek Dehejia, an economics professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, calling the allegations explosive said it would be best to take a breath. “These are explosive allegations by Trudeau against India, as yet unproven. The already frayed bilateral relationship will take a nose dive, and the Indo-Canadian diaspora will be driven by this. Best for all of us to take a pause till the facts are known," Dehejia wrote on X. ‘Credible allegations’, claims Trudeau Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement of “credible allegations” in the parliament caused a significant rupture in bilateral relations with India, resulting in the expulsion of an Indian diplomat in Ottawa. “Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar,” Trudeau said on Monday. [caption id=“attachment_13147992” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Prime Minister Justin Trudeau answers a question during question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on 19 September, 2023. AP[/caption] However, New Delhi on Tuesday rejected Canada’s allegations of Indian agents being involved in the killing of pro-Khalistan leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the chief of Khalistan Tiger Force and a designated ’terrorist’. In retaliation to the Trudeau administration expelling an Indian diplomat, New Delhi ordered a Canadian envoy, believed to be spying for the country in India, to leave within five days. While Trudeau emphasised that Canada was not looking to provoke or escalate the situation, India has rejected its accusation as “absurd and motivated,” shifting the focus to Khalistani terrorists and extremists sheltered in Canada. ‘Absurd and motivated’ In a statement, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said, “We have seen and reject the statement of the Canadian Prime Minister in their Parliament, as also the statement by their Foreign Minister. Allegations of the Government of India’s involvement in any act of violence in Canada are absurd and motivated.” India had been pressuring countries like Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States, which have significant Sikh communities, to crack down on the Khalistan movement. New Delhi, which has urged Ottawa to act against anti-Indian elements, has long been unhappy over Sikh separatist activity in Canada. Pro-Khalistan protests had taken place in London and San Francisco, causing tension with the Indian government. According t_o The Washington Post_, the G20 summit in India in September was marked by tension, with Trudeau sidelined and denied formal bilateral talks with Prime Minister Modi. The Khalistan issue was discussed on the summit’s sidelines, further straining relations. Canada’s foreign minister Melanie Joly stated that Trudeau had raised the allegations with President Biden and British prime minister Rishi Sunak, with the topic expected to be discussed at the UN General Assembly, The Washington Post reported. In response, Washington expressed deep concern and emphasised the importance of Canada’s investigation and bringing the perpetrators to justice. Australia also raised the issue with India at senior levels. The allegations surrounding Nijjar’s assassination have intensified the long-standing issue of Khalistan supporters in Canada, with potential ramifications for global geopolitics and foreign interference. While the situation remains complex, it underscores the delicate balance Western nations must maintain between their allies and their strategic partnerships in a rapidly evolving global space, The Washington Post reported. With inputs from agencies