How Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has emerged as the ‘biggest’ leader among the G7

When the leaders of the G7 meet in Puglia, Italy starting today (13 June), there’s no doubt that the Russia-Ukraine war — in its third year — and the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza resulting from Israel’s battle against Hamas will be the focus of attention.

At a time like this, one would assume that the world needs strong leadership. However, a look at the G7 summit proves otherwise. The meet to be held in the southern Italian coastal resort of Borgo Egnazia will feature, perhaps, the weakest gathering of leaders the group has had for years. Most of the leaders are distracted by elections, dwindling popularity or beset by domestic crises.

Among the leaders of the Big 7 — United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom (UK) — it seems only one is on the rise presently, and that’s Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. As Ivo Daalder, who served as US ambassador to NATO under former President Barack Obama, told Politico: “With the exception of Meloni, the leaders at the G7 summit are all pretty weak.”

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Meloni on the rise

The Giorgia Meloni that will welcome the G7 leaders and India’s Narendra Modi for the crucial G7 summit today could possibly be termed as Europe’s most stable leader, unlike her other counterparts. This stems from the fact that Meloni and her far-right Brothers of Italy party emerged as big winners in the European Parliament elections . This time around, she has taken nearly 29 per cent of the vote — a significant improvement on the six per cent she had won in the 2019 polls.

Her performance at the polls is a far cry from her German and French counterparts. Germany’s Olaf Scholz suffered a jolt when the far-right Alternative for German finished second, beating his Social Democrats, and France’s Emannuel Macron called for snap elections after his party was eclipsed by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.

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And as Meloni gears up to play host, she knows she’s the biggest winner. In fact, on Monday, she told supporters: “This nation goes to the G7 and to Europe with the strongest government of all. “They could not stop us.”

But this rise for Meloni hasn’t been easy over an overnight phenomenon. When she rose to the position of Italian prime minister in 2022, many had expressed concerns about her Brothers of Italy party’s neofascist history. But the 47-year-old has curated her world image, calmed her doubters and established close ties with world leaders such as US’ Joe Biden and European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.

On the Russia-Ukraine war, she has made herself a key player and distinguished herself from other far-right leaders. This has helped her standing among the Western leaders.

Analyst Matteo Villa of the IPSI think tank in Milan in an Indian Express report was quoted as saying: “Meloni is the moderate face of this right-wing bunch. She is poised as a moderate centre-right party now that has much consensus that can act as a bridge between the far right and the centre right. Meloni is narrating herself as a much more moderate leader.”

All in all, it’s Meloni’s time to shine and the G7 Summit is another chance for her image to be further boosted.

Biden wades in choppy waters

While the G7 will be a good platform for Meloni, the same can’t be said for US president Joe Biden.

The octogenarian will be touching down in Brindisi, Italy, at a time when he faces a tough election against Donald Trump and personal challenges in the form of his son, Hunter Biden’s legal challenges. In fact, Hunter was found guilty just a day ago in the gun trial and awaits sentencing in the same.

Biden’s popularity has been dwindling at home. On Monday (10 June), he notched the unpleasant distinction of recording his lowest-ever mark — of 37.4 per cent approval rating. The polling shows worrying signs that his support among non-White voters is falling.

In comparison, former President Donald Trump’s favourability rating has increased slightly since he left office. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average, Trump has a 41.6 per cent favourability rating. However, Trump too is facing a perilous future after becoming the first-ever former US president to be convicted of a felony .

Macron’s very French troubles

Another G7 leader who is facing challenges galore is French president Emmanuel Macron . He threw French politics into disarray when he called for snap parliamentary elections after his party was battered by the far right in European Parliament elections.

At the polls, Marine Le Pen’s party , the National Rally party, surged to first place in elections for European Parliament with 31.4 per cent of the vote. On the other hand, Macron’s party was able to secure just 14.6 of the votes.

Many call Macron’s move a huge gamble. If his party is able to win, he holds on to power. However, if Le Pen’s party secures a victory, he would be reduced to a sitting duck president. That’s because he would be confronted with a parliament hostile to his policies.

Sunak’s English challenge

In May, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak shocked many when he called for snap elections on 4 July. Many see Sunak as a ‘dead man walking’ with his Conservative party staring at a thumping defeat against the Labour party.

In fact, in a poll conducted by Redfield and Wilton for The Independent, the outcome shows that Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is poised to become the prime minister in the upcoming election and would continue on the post for another term as well. The data suggests that 45 per cent of all the voters believe Starmer will continue as prime minister until 2034, which indicates that he will be re-elected as the PM in the 2029 parliamentary elections again.

Another survey has also predicted a huge loss for Sunak. It has forecast that the Labour party will win 403 seats - comfortably clear of the 326 required for a majority. This indicates a worse defeat for the Tories than under former Prime Minister John Major in 1997 when the Tony Blair-led Labour left them with just 165 MPs.

Politico notes that with such a situation looming, “whatever Sunak says in Puglia swill likely draw polite smiles”.

Scholz’s weakened position

The EU elections have also led to a dent in German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s authority. All three parties of the ruling coalition — the centre-left Social Democrats, the environmentalist Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats — haemorrhaged votes at the polls.

In fact, Scholz’s Social Democrats was beaten into a humiliating third place by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Following the results, many have called snap elections in Germany, with Bavaria’s premier, Markus Söder, saying on television: “The fact is the coalition government has been voted out, and Olaf Scholz must call for new elections like Macron.”

But that seems unlikely with Scholz rejecting the calls. “The next election is scheduled for autumn next year and we plan to hold it then as planned,” said Steffen Hebestreit, Scholz’s spokesperson. “The idea never came up, at any point, ever, to bring forward the elections.”

But the message is clear: Scholz and his “traffic light coalition” — because of the parties’ colours — no longer enjoys the overwhelming support of the Germans.

Trudeau and Kishida’s waning popularity

Among the G7 nations, perhaps Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, is seen as the weakest.

Recent polls have revealed that Canadians are feeling a growing dissatisfaction with his government, spurred by frustration with issues like housing affordability and the cost of living. The governing Liberals have been trailing behind the Conservatives, the main opposition, often by double digits.

And despite his many efforts, it doesn’t seem to be working. Quito Maggi, a pollster with Mainstreet Research told Politico: “It’s a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t scenario for Trudeau because it almost doesn’t matter what he does or says right now. No one’s listening. It’s not the message: It’s the messenger.”

For Japan’s Fumio Kishida, the picture isn’t too bright. He is enduring his lowest personal ratings ahead of a leadership contest later this year. His Liberal Democratic Party is embroiled in what is termed as the worst financial scandal in decades, resulting in growing public distrust of the party.

With inputs from agencies