G20 Summit: What Xi and Putin’s absence means for India

Leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) forum will descend upon India this week to attend the summit at New Delhi’s Pragati Maidan. Over 40 heads of state and leaders of global organisations will mark their presence as India plays host. However, the presidents of China and Russia will be skipping the mega event on 9-10 September. Russia’s Vladimir Putin had earlier notified Prime Minister Narendra Modi about his absence at the upcoming G20 summit. In his stead, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will attend the conclave. While media reported last week that Chinese president Xi Jinping is unlikely to attend, the Asian country’s foreign ministry said today (4 September) that Premier Li Qiang will represent China’s delegation at the summit. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning did not answer a reporter about why Xi would miss the event in New Delhi. “The G20 is the main forum for international economic cooperation and China has always placed great importance on and proactively taken part in such events,” Mao said. “Premier Li Qiang will elaborate on China’s views and propositions on G20 cooperation, promote the G20 to strengthen solidarity and cooperation and work together to address global economic and development challenges,” China’s foreign ministry spokesperson was further quoted as saying by Associated Press (AP).  With two bigwigs skipping the G20 summit, will it have an impact on India’s presidency? Let’s understand better. What Xi’s absence at G20 means It remains unclear as to why Xi is not attending the G20 summit for the first time since coming to power in 2013. The Chinese premier had attended last November’s G-20 summit in Indonesia’s Bali, wherein he held talks with Prime Minister Modi and United States president Joe Biden. Xi’s expected absence this year comes at a time when tensions remain high between India and China over the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Despite several rounds of deliberations following military clashes in 2020 in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley, both sides have not been able to reach an agreement over the disengagement of troops at key friction points such as Depsang and Demchok, noted Hindustan Times (HT). Heightening the rift, Beijing recently released a “standard map” showing Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh within China’s border. India rejected China’s territorial claims, with External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar calling the map “absurd.” “If Xi decides not to attend the G20, this could set back China’s efforts to thaw relations with India and harden New Delhi’s position on the border dispute,” Sameer Lalwani, South Asia senior expert with the US Institute of Peace, told South China Morning Post (SCMP).

“Xi’s absence might also make it easier for India to flex its global leadership muscles.”

As per New York-headquartered Bloomberg, Xi may be “snubbing” the G20 summit because of Beijing’s “diplomatic sparring” with India or probably because he wants to stay back to handle the country’s economic troubles. China has a startling high youth unemployment rate, its property sector is facing losses, and the manufacturing sector has been shrinking. [caption id=“attachment_13077192” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Analysts say Xi Jinping will not receive a ‘warm welcome’ at the G20 summit in Delhi. Reuters File Photo[/caption] Xi’s likely absence at the G20 comes just weeks after he travelled to South Africa for a BRICS summit, which was also attended by prime minister Modi. The bloc consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Experts say the Chinese leader, who successfully advocated for the expansion of the BRICS bloc, would not get the same “warm welcome” at the G20 summit, noted SCMP.  “Xi is now in an ‘emperor mindset’ and expects dignitaries to come to him,” Alfred Wu, associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, told Bloomberg. “Xi enjoys a very high status when he receives foreign guests at home. He also received special treatment at the BRICS summit. But he’s unlikely to get that at G20,” Wu added. A diplomat in Beijing said Xi does not seem to have an interest in attending an event that could bolster “the global profile” of its rival India, the New York-headquartered media company reported. Speaking to SCMP, Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, said, “It is evident that Sino-Indian relations are navigating complex terrain”. “As for the G20 summit, the eventual outcome will serve as a barometer of the extent to which geopolitical tensions and strategic competition are impacting global economic cooperation and multilateral diplomacy.” Aamer said India as a host will “still gain” with China attending the G20 event, even if Xi will RSVP “no”. Xi will also miss a tete-a-tete with US’ Biden, who said he was “disappointed” that the Chinese leader will not be present at the New Delhi summit. The ties between the US and China have also worsened over the years due to several issues. Many European member nations have also expressed concerns over Beijing’s support for Russia after the Ukraine war. Another analyst pointed out that Xi wants to strengthen China on smaller forums where Beijing can set the agenda. “China seeks to dominate a group of smaller, less-developed states like BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization where China can dictate the agenda,” Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official and a senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, told Bloomberg. ALSO READ: G20 Summit: Why a joint declaration is unlikely Putin to skip G20 Before the G20 summit, Putin stayed away from the BRICS summit in Johannesburg following an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for him over alleged war crimes in Ukraine. He addressed the bloc virtually, blaming the unpredictability in global markets for food and other products on Western sanctions, reported The Guardian.  While he is averting presence at the G20, Putin is expected to visit ‘close’ partner China next month. [caption id=“attachment_13077572” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Russia’s Vladimir Putin will not attend the G20 Summit in India. AP File Photo[/caption] Is it a blessing in disguise for India? Some see these leaders’ absence at the G20 as a blessing in disguise for India’s presidency. “If Xi were to participate in the Summit, much of the attention of the hosts as well as of the media, both national and global, would be on his activities, movements, meetings, body language etc. There would be much greater interest and attention on the possibility of bilateral meetings between Biden and Xi, as well as between PM Modi and Xi. This would necessarily distract from the focus that should rightly be accorded to the deliberations under the G20 agenda,” Ashok Sajjanhar, a former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia, wrote for India Narrative. Putin’s absence will save India from dealing with possible embarrassing situations, such as a heated exchange between the Russian president and Western leaders. “The Russian president’s presence could have also created a tense situation or led to an acrimonious debate, which would deal irreparable damage to the G20 and split the group. Such a development under India’s presidency would have been a major embarrassment for the host country,” as per a Moneycontrol report. India downplays the absence Minister of state for external affairs Meenakshi Lekhi said China and Russian leaders’ absence will not impact the outcome of the G20 summit. “The absence of these leaders would not have any impact on the summit. Most things that have been worked on are part of the declaration. It is those countries’ prerogative to send whoever they wish and who will represent them. Both countries will be represented, respectively. I am sure there would be internal reasons of the countries,” Lekhi told ANI earlier. On Xi’s absence, “people” aware of the matter told HT earlier that G20 leaders have skipped summits of the bloc for their “own reasons” from time to time and the “level of attendance” is different every year. They added that the Chinese president skipping the event will “not reflect on the host country”. With inputs from agencies