 "Election posters of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) party with pictures of their leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella are seen near the RN party headquarters before the second round of the early French parliamentary elections, in Paris, France, July 5, 2024. Reuters")
As French citizens prepare to head back to the polls this Sunday for the decisive second round of legislative elections, the stakes couldn’t be higher. This crucial vote will determine the makeup of the French National Assembly, with all 577 seats up for grabs and 289 needed for an absolute majority.
The outcome will significantly influence France’s legislative and economic direction, as well as its political stability within the European Union.
What is the Republican Front strategy?
In a strategic move to prevent vote splitting against the far-right, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) have withdrawn over 200 candidates from the runoff ballots this week.
This tactic, known as the Republican Front, aims to consolidate votes against the National Rally (RN). Recent projections from multiple surveys suggest that the RN and its allies are expected to secure between 190 and 250 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, warned about the potential for political gridlock if no one achieves an absolute majority. “If no one gets an absolute majority, and we’re the only ones who can, no bill will be passed,” she stated in an interview with French news channel CNews.
What are the election projections?
According to the latest Harris Interactive survey for Challenges magazine, Marine Le Pen’s far-right party might not win the 289 seats needed to control the National Assembly.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe poll indicates that the efforts by Macron’s centrists and the leftist bloc NFP to block the far-right could be effective. The RN and its allies are likely to obtain between 190 and 220 seats, while the centre-right Republicans (LR), who have allied with Le Pen, are projected to win between 30 and 50 seats.
These projections have led to a tactical withdrawal of more than 200 candidates from various political parties who came in third in their constituencies in the first round, supporting the strongest candidate against the RN.
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This strategy was implemented to prevent the possibility of a far-right minority government supported by part of the LR parliamentary group.
What is the election process ahead of the second round?
France’s electoral process is complex, with members of parliament elected through two rounds of voting across 577 constituencies. Local dynamics often play a significant role, with up to four candidates qualifying for the second round based on local turnout and votes.
In 301 of the 577 electoral districts, at least three candidates, usually one from each of the main coalitions – the National Rally, Macron’s centrist coalition, and the left-wing alliance – have qualified for the second round. These districts are crucial battlegrounds that will decide the election’s outcome.
If candidates who came third in these districts withdraw, it potentially works against the RN as voters opposing the far-right are likely to support the sole remaining rival candidate. However, the process remains uncertain, and seat projections for the RN vary widely from 230 to 310 seats.
What happens if there is a hung assembly?
The level of voter abstention is a critical factor in this election. According to an Elabe poll, only one in four voters intends to follow the voting instructions delivered by their parties.
According to Politico, Macron’s attempts to position himself as a bulwark against extremism might be hindered by his previous carping about the far-left, potentially influencing voter turnout.
In the event of a hung parliament, several outcomes are possible. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has suggested that mainstream right, left, and centrist parties could form ad hoc alliances to pass individual pieces of legislation.
However, if no coalition can govern effectively, France might face political paralysis, with little or no legislation being adopted and a caretaker government running basic daily affairs.
Even if the far-right does not come to power in this election, France faces months of political uncertainty until the end of Macron’s term in 2027. Marine Le Pen is widely expected to mount a challenge for the presidency itself. “It’s a big mess politically. We might be in political blockage for one year,” Philippe Marliere, professor of French politics at University College London, told Al Jazeera.
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The upcoming election results will not only shape France’s domestic policies but also impact its role within the EU and NATO. The potential for a far-right government in France is a significant concern for many, with implications for the stability of the EU’s second-biggest economy.
With inputs from agencies