France election 2024: How the second round run-off will work, what to look out for

All eyes are on France. The second round of the legislative elections on July 7 could mark a significant shift in the country’s political landscape.

Opinion polls indicate that unless the far-right National Rally (RN) secures enough seats to form its first government since World War II, Sunday’s run-off vote could result in a hung parliament without a clear majority.

Here’s a look at some facts about the election and what’s next.

The voting process

There are 577 constituencies in the National Assembly and the lower house of parliament. Each one has a seat up for grabs in this election.

During last Sunday’s first round of voting, 76 parliamentarians were elected, 39 of whom were from the far-right RN and its supporters.

This means that 501 seats are up for grabs in the decisive round.

Voting concludes this Sunday at 6 pm (9.30 pm IST) in small towns and towns and 8 pm (11.30 pm IST) in large cities.

Based on early partial results from polling places, pollsters will provide their initial national forecasts at 8 pm.

These are usually reliable.

Vote counting is usually fast.

The actual result, however, might not be known until the wee hours of Monday if the vote is close, as in the case of the RN, who is only a few seats away from an absolute majority.

The possible victory

With one-third of the vote, the RN won the first round.

According to opinion polls, it will surpass all other parties in the number of seats won, but its margin of victory is narrowing and it is expected to fall short of a working majority.

To strengthen the position of the front-runner against the RN in their districts, the left-leaning New Popular Front (NPF) and a coalition of centrist parties that back President Emmanuel Macron have pulled more than 200 candidates from second-round races.

In the past, a more divided field has benefited the far right.

According to the most recent polls conducted following the withdrawal of candidates, the plan is working, and a hung parliament is the most likely outcome, with the far right losing out on an absolute majority.

That outcome would lead to the most political uncertainty.

What to expect

Voters’ decision to support the far right, abstain despite their preferred candidate’s recommendation to the contrary, or endorse the anti-RN candidate in their constituency is a crucial matter.

To gain an absolute majority and carry out their anti-immigration, eurosceptic programme, the RN and its allies will need to win 289 seats.

The party declared that Jordan Bardella, its leader, will be its prime minister candidate.

Gabriel Attal, Macron’s prime minister, would step down right away.

Macron would designate a new prime minister, whose job it would be to put together a Cabinet. If Macron thought a nominee was unsuited for the position, he could veto the appointment.

Regarding what it would do if it came up just short of an absolute majority, the RN has eased its position.

Although Bardella had stated that he would not head an unstable minority administration, RN’s Marine Le Pen has made it possible to recruit additional MPs should the party just be short on seats.

In case of a hung parliament…

Rather than attempting to establish a coalition government, Attal has stated that the mainstream right, left, and centrist parties might form ad hoc alliances to vote through specific bills in the new parliament.

On the left, however, some have touted the idea of forming a ruling coalition. In its recent political history, France has never experienced a wide coalition leadership, in contrast to Germany and many other European nations.

Both of these scenarios would probably delay changes and create political uncertainty.

No deal

It is possible that none of the three groups — the far right, Macron’s centrist alliance or the left — will be big enough to govern alone, reach a coalition deal or provide the assurance that they can run a viable minority government.

In such a case, France would risk political paralysis, with little or no legislation being adopted and a caretaker government running basic daily affairs.

The possibility of Macron resigning

Macron has hitherto ruled this out, but it might become more appealing to him if policy paralysis prevails. Neither parliament nor the government can force a president to resign.

Repeat vote: not an option

The constitution says there can be no new parliamentary election for another year, so an immediate repeat vote is not an option.

With inputs from Reuters