First Quad, now Squad? The new bloc India may join to counter China

India has long been part of Quad – the grouping between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States which aims at an ‘open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific that is inclusive and resilient.’

Now, the Philippines wants India to join the ‘Squad’ – an informal spinoff grouping in the South China Sea comprising it, Australia, Japan and the United States.

General Romeo S, Brawner, Chief of Staff of the Philippines armed forces, said his nation is eager to see both India and South Korea join the informal bloc.

“I will be raising the topic of India joining the Squad during a meeting with Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan in the afternoon today,” General Brawner, referring to China as the common enemy, said on the sidelines of Raisina Dialogue.

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“The three artificial islands created by China give it effective control over the South China Sea. They have built a 2.7-km runway, with air defence and other missile systems, on Mischief Reef…Moving forward, it is our belief that they will take full control of the South China Sea,” General Brawner added.

But what is ‘Squad?’ What do we know about it? What do experts say?

Let’s take a closer look:

What is it?

As per Bloomberg, the nickname to the grouping was given by officials at the US Pentagon.

According to the Global Times, some experts say “the Squad essentially adds an ‘S’ for security to the Indo-Pacific architecture of minilateral cooperation.”

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The Interpreter reported the grouping was comes in the backdrop of rising tensions between China and the Philippines due to territorial disputes.

As per The Observer Research Foundation, the first meeting of the ‘Squad’ was held on June 3, 2023.

The ‘Squad’s’ first joint maritime exercise occurred in April 2024, as per Global Times.

According to The Economic Times, the informal bloc has conducted naval exercises in the South China Sea for more than a year.

China, in violation of international law, has lay claim to almost the entire South China Sea.

This despite the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016 ruling that Beijing’s claim to almost the entire South China Sea is groundless.

China’s actions in the region have been the subject of hundreds of diplomatic protests filed by the Philippines.

Around $3 trillion worth of sea-borne goods pass through the South China Sea every year.

The ‘Squad’ is thus essentially aimed at deterring curbing Beijing’s adventurism in the South China Sea.

Brawner on Wednesday slammed Beijing’s “illegal, coercive, and disruptive Grey Zone” tactics including building and militarising three artificial islands.

As per The Times of India, China’s neighbours have accused it of flouting international norms – both in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

Not only does Beijing have the world’s largest navy with 370 warships and submarines, it has also permanently stationed seven to eight ships in the Indian Ocean Region.

What do experts say?

The ORF piece argued that the formation of the ‘Squad’ should be seen in the context of the failure of institutions such as Asean and the lack of condemnation of China’s moves and a new way of strengthening maritime security through a security arrangement.

“Firstly, it would be inaccurate to view the emergence of the Squad as an outcome at the cost of the already existing Quad,” the piece stated.

“The synergy among the Quad countries is directed towards fostering a secure and stable Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, the Squad should be seen in the context of the specific contests that have characterized the SCS region, and even more specifically the West Philippine Sea.”

The ORF article claimed the ‘Squad’ has spurred a much-needed debate minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific.

“The proliferation of such groupings has come as a boon to several players involved in the broader geopolitics ensuing in the region. Minilateral groupings are seen as helpful as they aid in the making of maritime security architectures based on the strategic and security compulsions of the players involved in the region providing them with more space and agency to manoeuvre the complex challenges at sea. This is a natural outcome of the very nature in which geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific has evolved, involving maritime spaces with varied strategic environments, and countries with wide-ranging interests,” the piece stated.

A piece in The Interpreter contended that the ‘Squad’ is a natural result of the US’ minilateral initiatives including Australia–UK–US (Aukus) and Japan–Philippines–US (Japhus).

“As the “Squad” develops, it needs to institutionalise its promising partnership through regular joint patrols in the South China Sea and across Western Pacific, expanded intelligence-sharing and maritime security cooperation, and collective efforts to accelerate the Philippines’ military modernisation,” the piece argued.

“n the meantime, the “Squad” sends a reminder to China that the Philippines is not alone – and that Beijing needs to reconsider its aggressive stance, lest it crystalise a de facto ‘Asian NATO,’” the piece concluded.

Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy, told SCMP last year he would not be shocked if ‘Squad’ becomes a more established grouping.

“Squad countries are strong maritime nations, having keen commercial interests in the conflicting South China Sea to the East China Sea. Having official backing among the navies of these four countries makes sense, and hence eventually the Squad might emerge as a more institutionalised or formalised grouping,” Panda said.

Panda added that the two blocs would result in a “versatile power distribution” where “powers and responsibilities are shared.”

“There is an opportunity and chance for the Squad and the Quad to coexist,” Panda said.

Yoichiro Sato, professor of Asia-Pacific Studies at Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, added, “Manila will remain focused on borrowing the strength of the other three countries in deterring China’s challenges” in the South China Sea.

“This includes security help to the Philippines in terms of both hardware and human resource training,” Sato said.

“The two overlapping four-party arrangements allow more cohesion within each group, allowing both India and the Philippines to work within their comfort levels,” Sato added.

China, of course, sees things very differently.

A piece in the state-run Global Times savaged the ‘Squad’ as “a patched-together Frankenstein, a loose bloc of interests that does little more than fuel instability in the South China Sea.”

“Its so-called unity is nothing but a facade, built on an opportunistic grouping that only serves to further stir an already tense situation. Perhaps what the “S” truly stands for is “sabotage” and “strife.” Every joint US-Japan-Australia-Philippines military exercise, while officially claiming to promote “regional peace and stability,” only further destabilises the South China Sea situation,” the piece argued.

“Peace and stability in the South China Sea depend on dialogue and cooperation, not on creating one “monster” after another to divert attention from provocative actions. Relying on external forces for support to incite tensions will only complicate the situation and push peace further away,” the piece concluded.

With inputs from agencies