 "After the fall of Bashar al-Assad, will Germany ask its 1 million Syrian refugees to return?")
Nearly ten years ago, Germany opened its doors to an unprecedented influx of Syrian refugees fleeing a brutal civil war under the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Among them was Anas Modamani, who symbolised hope and a new beginning when he took a selfie with then-Chancellor Angela Merkel. Today, Modamani holds German citizenship and has completed his university studies.
Reflecting on his journey, he told AP, “Berlin has become my second home. I will definitely stay here. I managed it,” referencing Merkel’s iconic “We will manage it” slogan during the refugee crisis.
The sentiment surrounding Syrians in Germany, however, has evolved. Political discourse has shifted dramatically, especially following the collapse of Assad’s regime, igniting debates on whether Syrians should now return to their homeland.
This discussion has added layers of uncertainty for the nearly one million Syrian nationals in Germany, many of whom have deeply integrated into German society.
What are politicians in Germany saying?
The fall of Assad has sparked polarised reactions among German politicians. Right-wing and conservative figures have called for Syrians to return home, arguing that the conditions prompting asylum no longer exist.
Alice Weidel, leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), posted on social platform X: “Anyone in Germany who celebrates a ‘free Syria’ evidently no longer has a reason to flee. They should return to Syria immediately.”
Similarly, Markus Söder, leader of Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU), stated, “If the reason for asylum disappears, then there is no longer any legal basis to stay in the country.”
Jens Spahn, a prominent conservative lawmaker, suggested offering financial incentives for voluntary returns, proposing that “for everyone who wants to go back to Syria, we will charter planes for them, and they will get a starting fund of €1,000 ($1,055).”
Left-leaning and Green politicians have vehemently opposed such rhetoric, highlighting the ongoing instability in Syria. Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s Green Foreign Minister, argued, “Whoever tries to misuse the current situation in Syria for their own party political purposes has lost touch with reality in the Middle East.”
Michael Roth, a Social Democrat, warned against hasty decisions, stating, “The situation on the ground remains unclear.”
How many Syrians are in Germany?
According to official data, approximately 975,000 Syrians reside in Germany, with 712,000 holding refugee or protected status. Of these, many have made significant strides in integrating into German society.
Studies indicate that Syrian migrants tend to have higher educational qualifications and employment rates than native-born Germans. For instance, over 5,000 Syrian doctors are currently working in Germany, and Syrian men who arrived in 2015 have higher employment rates than their native counterparts.
Naturalisation rates among Syrians have surged, with 143,000 gaining German citizenship between 2021 and 2023. This trend underscores the efforts many Syrians have made to learn the language, secure jobs, and contribute economically.
However, about 700,000 Syrians remain classified under various asylum statuses, highlighting the complexities of their legal and social positions.
What about the pending asylum cases?
Amid the political debate, Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) has announced a temporary suspension of asylum decisions for Syrians, affecting over 47,000 pending cases.
Similar pauses have been enacted by other European nations, including Austria, Norway, and the Netherlands. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser defended this decision, stating that it would be “unserious to speculate in such a volatile situation” about the eventual return of Syrians.
Despite the freeze, Faeser acknowledged the potential for returns under improved conditions, saying, “Many refugees who have found protection in Germany now finally have hope of returning to their Syrian homeland and rebuilding their country.”
What next for Syrians in Germany?
While some politicians advocate for deportations or incentivised returns, others call for a measured approach. Joachim Herrmann, Bavaria’s Interior Minister, told Deutschlandfunk radio, “Those who have already integrated well are still cordially welcome,” but noted that it is reasonable to consider returns for those who have not integrated after a decade.
Syrian communities and their advocates state the need for clarity and security. Katharina Binz, Rhineland-Palatinate’s integration minister, warned against creating undue panic, telling local broadcaster SWR, “Many have children in school here, full-time jobs, and will be scared by sudden discussions about deportations, which is completely unrealistic.”
Germany’s stance on Syrian refugees remains uncertain as the European nation also prepares for snap elections on February 23 next year.
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