Explained: How Canada’s next prime minister will be picked

Who will be Canada’s next prime minister?

Canada is set to have a new Prime Minister following Justin Trudeau’s resignation earlier this year.

Trudeau stepped down in January after nearly a decade in office due to growing dissatisfaction with his leadership and internal turmoil within his government. His decision followed the sudden resignation of his finance minister and confirmed that he would remain in office until the Liberal Party selects a new leader.

Days later, Trudeau announced he would not contest the upcoming federal elections, scheduled for October.

Several candidates, including former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney , have since declared their candidacy to succeed Trudeau as the leader of the ruling Liberal Party.

Meanwhile, tensions between Canada and the United States have escalated following tariffs imposed by Donald Trump’s administration . In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on US exports and warned that a trade war would be harmful to both nations.

On Thursday, Trump temporarily suspended tariffs on some imports for a month. Previously, he had imposed 25 per cent tariffs on nearly all imports from both countries.

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After a conversation with Trump on Wednesday, Trudeau told reporters that he foresaw a trade war between the two nations. Trump has also repeatedly suggested the idea of incorporating Canada as the 51st US state and has referred to Trudeau as “Governor.”

The ruling Liberal Party is now set to elect a new leader to succeed Trudeau, with the result expected to be announced on March 9.

Why does there need to be a race?

Unlike Australia and Britain, where prime ministers are chosen by legislators and can be quickly removed, Canada’s political parties elect their leaders through special contests open to members.

Trudeau’s resignation automatically triggered a leadership race, and the new head of the Liberal Party will become the next prime minister.

Key contenders in the race

Polls indicate that former central bank governor Mark Carney holds a huge lead over ex-finance minister Chrystia Freeland, whose resignation last December set off the crisis that ultimately led to Trudeau’s departure.

Former cabinet minister Karina Gould is also in the race, though her chances appear slim.

Who is allowed to vote?

Any registered Liberal Party member is eligible to vote. There is no fee to join, and both Canadian citizens and permanent residents can sign up.

The party announced on January 30 that around 400,000 people had registered to vote. Canada’s total population is approximately 41 million.

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How is the result determined?

The contest will be a ranked ballot of voters in each of the 343 parliamentary constituencies, also known as ridings. Each riding is allocated 100 points. These are distributed based on the ratio of votes won by a contestant in each riding.

The system means that a candidate must have broad backing across the country, rather than just amassing the largest number of supporters.

Voters in each riding rank the candidates in order of preference. So if Candidate A won 60% of the votes in a riding and Candidate B won 40%, they would earn 60 and 40 points respectively. The process is repeated in all 343 ridings and then the national count takes place.

If no contestant gets more than 50% of the overall points on the first count, the leadership contestant who received the least points is eliminated.

This is where the ranked ballots play a key role. The Liberal Party will redistribute the ballots of the eliminated contestant to the other contenders based on who voters in each riding chose as their second option. This process continues until someone takes more than 50% of the points.

How will the result be announced?

The Liberals say they will unveil the result at a gathering in Ottawa on March 9 with the first round of voting being announced at about 6:30 p.m. ET (2230 GMT).

When will national elections be conducted?

Under Canada’s fixed election law the next national vote must be held by October 20 but could take place much sooner. The new prime minister could call an election any time after March 9. An election could also be triggered in late March, when a vote of no confidence in the government is expected in Parliament. If all the opposition parties vote against the Liberals, the government will fall.

Polls show that the Liberals are virtually tied with the official opposition Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives had a double-digit lead for more than a year but that advantage vanished after Trudeau announced he was stepping down and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on all imports from Canada.

With inputs from Reuters