Explained: Hamas' losses so far and its shift to guerilla warfare tactics using tunnels

A considerably weakened Hamas has shifted gears in the war in Israel. The group is now resorting to guerilla tactics to hold its ground against the much more powerful Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Hamas’ resistance is evolving, and quickly.

We tell you how much Hamas has weakened, how it’s using tunnels for its guerilla tactics, and whether there is any chance of Hamas being completely vanquished.

Significant losses for Hamas

Eight months into the Gaza conflict that began with surprise attacks on Israel in October last year, Hamas stands significantly weakened and divided, though far from defeated, according to experts and officials. In a recent report, Reuters cited US and Israeli officials as saying that the group has seen about half its forces wiped out so far.

The officials said that Hamas’ fighting force has dwindled to between 9,000-12,000 fighters, down from pre-conflict estimates of 20,000-25,000. Notably, between 7,000-8,000 Hamas fighters remain entrenched in Rafah, the group’s last significant bastion of resistance.

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White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby recently told ABC News that US intelligence now believes that Hamas has been militarily degraded to the extent that it cannot replicate its October 7 attack.

The group has not just been cut down militarily. It has earned the ire of some Palestinians, too. Back in April, the Guardian had reported that despite a poll suggesting support for Hamas in the territory, there is evidence of deepening anger within Gaza against Hamas. An unprecedented apology from the group in March for the suffering caused by the conflict was testament to this.

Yet, despite this weakening, Hamas retains control over substantial portions of Gaza, with its leadership largely unscathed. Hamas maintains control over significant population centres, and its operatives have been seen maintaining order in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis after the IDF withdrew from there in the first week of April.

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Shift to Guerilla tactics

With diminished forces, Hamas has resorted to guerrilla warfare tactics. Hamas fighters are avoiding sustained engagements, opting for ambushes and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to hit Israeli targets behind enemy lines. This shift allows rapid withdrawal, regrouping, and reappearance in previously cleared areas, complicating Israeli military operations.

The Wall Street Journal, in a recent report, pointed out how Hamas has leveraged its tunnel network and guerrilla tactics to launch hit-and-run attacks in northern Gaza, despite the Israeli military’s focus on Rafah. These tactics have kept Israeli forces engaged across the enclave, creating battlegrounds in previously quiet areas.

A labyrinth of tunnels aiding Hamas

Hamas’ tunnel network spans 500 km, and is sprawled out like a subterranean city. It has been central to the group’s resilience. Dubbed the Gaza metro by the Israeli military, this labyrinth shelters Hamas leaders, command centers, and weapon stores. The tunnel network’s construction began in 1999 and expanded significantly after Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, according to The Week.

Despite Israeli attempts to clear these tunnels using explosives and flooding with seawater, the network remains a formidable challenge. WSJ quoted sources as saying that top Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, are believed to be hiding in these tunnels with Israeli captives.

Peter Lerner, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), acknowledged that dismantling the network is no easy feat. “There is no quick fix after 17 years of them building their capabilities,” he told Reuters.

Can Hamas be completely vanquished?

“There is never a goal to kill each and every last terrorist on the ground. That’s not a realistic goal,” Lerner said. “Destroying Hamas as a governing authority is an achievable and attainable military objective,” he added.

Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group spoke about the group’s pervasive presence despite military setbacks. “Hamas is everywhere in Gaza,” he said. Hamas also continues to exert control through police and civil defence bodies under its interior ministry, maintaining its societal influence.

Major General Tamir Hayman, former head of Israeli military intelligence, noted that even if terror activities are eroded, the societal structures and ideological elements of Hamas persist. The sense of Islamic brotherhood is almost impossible to root out, especially given the population’s growing resentment towards “oppressors” like Israel.

Concerns have also been raised about Israel’s lack of a credible plan for replacing Hamas. The worry is that the absence of a governing alternative could undermine military successes. Right now, criminal gangs have already emerged in Gaza amid the power vacuum, seizing food deliveries and conducting armed robberies, drawing parallels to the insurgencies seen in Falluja post-US invasion.

Back then, US’ actions led to people flocking in support of what was seen as the Islamist resistance, filling up the ranks of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. A similar situation could play out in Gaza, where the mass killings could prompt members to join resistance militant groups.

With inputs from agencies