 "Three pollsters have said that it is possible that the BJP-led NDA will get 400 seats in Parliament. Reuters")
The exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are finally out.
And, the usual caveats about exit polls aside, much can be gleaned from them.
All the pollsters have predicted that the BJP-led NDA, which has 342 seats in Parliament, will expand its current footprint.
Meanwhile, three agencies have said the BJP will achieve its ambitious ‘400 paar’ goal.
Pollsters have also uniformly pegged the Opposition INDI alliance’s tally at well over 100 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha.
The ‘magic mark’ in India’s lower House is 272.
But what are the big takeaways from the exit polls?
Let’s take a closer look
BJP to come back
This is the big one.
All the pollsters unanimously predicted that the BJP-led NDA, which currently has 342 seats in Parliament, will return to power – with an even bigger presence.
The News18 Mega Exit Poll predicted that the NDA would get between 355 and 370 seats, while the Opposition-led INDIA bloc would win 125 to 140 seats.
The BJP itself is estimated to get 305 to 315 seats.
Meanwhile, the INDI alliance is predicted to net between 125 and 140 seats with the Congress itself getting 62 to 72 seats.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsWhat about 400 paar?
While many in the Opposition scoffed about the BJP-led NDA’s ‘400 par’ slogan, some agencies said this might be within reach.
Three pollsters – Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India and CNX said that the BJP could cross the 400-seat mark.
Today’s Chanakya has predicted that the BJP could get as many as 415 seats, while both Axis My India and CNX pegged the BJP’s top line number at 401 seats.
This, of course, would be a huge sign of people’s confidence in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a massive blow to the Opposition.
BJP to make waves in Bengal
Among the eyebrow raising predictions from multiple pollsters is that the BJP is set to become the single-largest party in Bengal.
The News18 Mega Exit poll predicted that the BJP will get between 21 and 24 seats in the state.
Meanwhile, the Trinamool Congress is estimated to net between 18 and 21 seats according to the pollster.
The Jan Ki Baat agency has said the BJP will get between 21 and 26 seats in Bengal.
Meanwhile, the Trinamool Congress is likely to get between 16 and 18 seats.
The D-Dynamics poll puts the BJP’s tally in Bengal at 21 and the Trinamool Congress at 19.
Republic Bharat-Matrize poll said the BJP will get between 21 and 25 seats.
It estimated that the Trinamool will net anywhere between 16 and 20 seats.
Foothold in Tamil Nadu and Kerala
The exit polls also seem to point to the BJP-led NDA may find a foothold in Tamil Nadu and Kerala after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s southern outreach.
The News18 Mega Exit poll predicted that the NDA would get between 1 and 3 seats in both states.
The ABP News-C Voter poll gave the NDA the same tally in Kerala, while the D-Dynamics estimated two seats for the NDA.
The India Today-Axis My India agency also gave the NDA between 2 and 3 seats.
The CNX poll predicted the NDA would get from five to seven seats in Tamil Nadu, while the India Today-Axis My India exit poll estimated the coalition would get between two and four seats.
The Jan Ki Baat agency said the alliance would get five seats, while the ABP News-C Voter, India News-D Dynamic, and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat all had the NDA winning a minimum of one seat.
Domination in Karnataka
The News18 Mega Exit poll predicted that the NDA would get between 23 and 26 seats in Karnataka.
It estimated that the Congress would get between three and seven seats.
A slew of other pollsters also hinted at the NDA domination in Karnataka.
The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat put the NDA tally in Karnataka at 20.
It said the Congress would get around eight seats.
The India Today-Axis My India predicted between 23 and 25 seats for the NDA, while the Congress would get between 3 and 5 seats.
The CNX agency said the NDA would win between 19 and 25 seats.
It gave the Congress just four to eight seats.
Jan Ki Baat estimated 21 to 23 seats for the NDA and 5 to 7 seats for the Congress.
Republic TV-P MARQ gave the NDA 22 seats and the Congress just six seats.
ABP News-C Voter said the NDA would get between 23 and 25 seats and the Congress would net between 3 and 5 seats.
The D-Dynamics poll gave the NDA 23 seats and the Congress 5 seats.
Modi magic works yet again, Opposition needs to introspect
The predictions all seem to point to one fact – the Modi magic is stronger than ever despite having served two terms in office.
The Opposition will likely need to undergo a fresh bout of introspection if the predictions bear out on 4 June.
If the numbers hold, they would have failed at stymieing the juggernaut that is the NDA, despite combining their forces.
The question that needs to be asked – where do they go from here?
In the 2019 polls, the BJP won 303 seats, while the NDA tally was 353.
The Congress had bagged 53 seats and its allies 38.
The INDI alliance was formed by Opposition parties to take on the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.
‘Opportunistic INDI alliance failed’
After the seventh and last phase of voting ended on Saturday, Modi exuded confidence that people have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government and said the “opportunistic INDI Alliance” failed to strike a chord with the voters who rejected their “regressive politics”.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge told reporters after a meeting of the opposition INDIA bloc that the alliance will win more than 295 seats.
“We have arrived at this figure after speaking with all our leaders. This is a survey of people. People have given this information to our leaders. The government surveys are there and their media friends also inflate figures and put it out. Therefore, we want to tell you about the reality,” he said.
BJP president J P Nadda, however, asserted that people have voted for a capable, powerful, developed and self-reliant India and to put aside appeasement, nepotism and corruption, exuding confidence that his party will win more than 370 Lok Sabha seats and the NDA over 400.
The counting of votes will take place on 4 June.
With inputs from agencies