Exit Poll Results 2023: Will BJP retain MP? Can Congress break ‘riwaz’ in Rajasthan?

Exit polls for the five states that voted this month are finally out. While they may not always get it right, sometimes exit polls give a rough idea of the situation on the ground. If these predictions are to be believed, both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have something to cheer for. Rajasthan appears to have adhered to its decade-old riwaz of ousting the incumbent, as two exit polls have given an edge to the saffron party over the ruling Congress. It is a neck-and-neck contest in Madhya Pradesh between the two parties. The ruling Congress has the upper hand in Chhattisgarh, as per exit polls. In Telangana, which went to polls on Thursday (30 November), the Grand Old Party has made it challenging for the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) to secure a comfortable victory and return for a third term. In Mizoram, Zoram’s People Movement (ZPM) is taking on the Mizo National Front (MNF) in a close race, while the Congress and BJP trail. Let’s take a detailed look at the exit poll results of these five states. Rajasthan exit poll results 2023 If two exit polls have predicted it right, Chief minister Ashok Gehlot has failed to overcome Rajasthan’s ‘revolving door’ policy. According to Times Now-ETG, the BJP could win 108-128 seats, while the Congress may secure only 56-72 seats. The Rajasthan Assembly is a 200-member House. However, polling was conducted for 199 seats after the death of the Congress candidate from the Karanpur constituency, Gurmeet Koonar. The majority remains at 101 seats.

TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat survey has anticipated a maximum of 110 seats for the saffron party, while the Congress could bag between 90-100 seats. With 94-114 seats, ABP News-C Voter foretells a clear majority for the BJP, with Congress bagging between 71-91 seats. Jan Ki Baat has given an upper margin to the BJP of 122 seats while reducing the Grand Old Party to 62-85 seats. The exit poll results of Dainik Bhaskar point to a close contest between the Congress and the BJP, predicting 85-95 seats for the former and 98-105 seats for the saffron party. It is only the India Today-Axis My India exit poll that indicates a victory for the Congress with a maximum of 106 seats. The saffron party could get anywhere between 80-100 seats, the exit poll says. If this prediction is correct, Congress leader Sachin Pilot’s previous statement that his party has broken the 30-year-old tradition of replacing the incumbent in the desert state may be true. Reacting to exit poll results, Congress spokesperson Gourav Vallabh told PTI that the riwaz is set to change in Rajasthan. But if the other exit polls are not off the mark, then the BJP will be forming the next government in the desert state, and Vasundhara Raje may not be its choice for the coveted post of the CM. Madhya Pradesh exit poll results 2023 It might be a tight race in Madhya Pradesh. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat indicates an edge for the Congress over the BJP with 111-121 seats, while the ruling saffron party may secure 106-116 seats. Other parties are expected to bag between zero to six seats. MP , which has been led by BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan since 2005, except for a brief period between 2018 and 2020, has 230 Assembly seats. The parties need to touch the magic number of 116 to stake a claim to form the government.

Jan Ki Baat exit poll projects a very close fight, with the Congress getting 102-125 seats and the BJP winning 100-123 seats. Dainik Bhaskar says the BJP is likely to win a maximum of 115 seats and Congress could clinch 105-120 seats. Republic TV-Matrize exit poll indicates that the BJP would breach the majority mark, bagging anywhere between 118 and 130 seats. The Congress is likely to win 97-107 seats and other parties will get 0-2 seats. The BJP can take heart from the India Today-Axis My India exit poll result which has projected a landslide victory for the party with a maximum of 162 seats. It says Congress may win only 68-90 seats, while others could secure 0-3 seats. Today’s Chanakya also forecasts the BJP’s return in MP. It must be noted that the saffron party has not declared Chouhan as its CM face this time, while also fielding several MPs in the Assembly elections, stoking speculations that it is keeping its options open for the top job. However, the Congress’ expected CM face Kamal Nath has previously expressed confidence in trouncing the BJP and coming to power in MP. ALSO READ: 2023 Assembly elections: How are exit polls conducted? Are they accurate? Telangana exit poll results 2023 After Karnataka, the Congress could come to power in another southern state — Telangana. According to India TV-CNX exit poll, the Grand Old Party is much ahead of the ruling BRS with 63-79 seats, while KCR’s party is likely to win only 31-47 seats. The BJP is expected to bag 2-4 seats while the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has been given 5-7 seats, as per the exit poll. If true, this will dash KCR’s dream of a third term in Telangana. Telangana has 119 Assembly constituencies, with the majority mark at 60.

Other exit polls predict a close fight between the Congress and the BRS. Jan Ki Baat projects Congress claiming 48-64 seats, BRS 40-55, BJP 7-13 and AIMIM 4-7. As per TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, Congress is likely to secure 49-59 seats, BRS 48-58 seats, BJP 5-10 seats and 6-8 seats for AIMIM. Republic TV-Matrize says Congress has an advantage and may secure 58-68 seats, while the BRS is predicted to win 46-56 seats. News 24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll forecasts a clean sweep by the Congress with 71 seats, while the BRS lags behind at 33 seats. Telangana Minister and BRS leader KT Rama Rao has rejected the exit polls that say his party is losing the state. “I promise you, for those of you who are friends of BRS and want KCR to come back… I promise you on 3 December (counting day) we are coming back. We are coming back with anywhere above 70 seats,” he told reporters. Chhattisgarh exit poll results 2023 Congress might be able to retain Chhattisgarh and if this happens, it would be a big boost for the party ahead of the 2024 general elections. The state has 90 Assembly constituencies, while the majority mark is 46. News24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll has given a distinct lead to Congress with 57 seats and predicted 33 seats for the BJP. _Times Now-_ETG indicates Congress could clinch anywhere between 48 and 56 seats, while the saffron party may claim 32-40 seats. India Today-My Axis India and ABP News-C Voter had similar predictions for the BJP, giving it between 36 to 48 seats. The Congress could bag between 40 and 53 seats, as per these exit polls.

Jan Ki Baat and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat also signalled a Congress victory in Chhattisgarh. The former predicted 42-53 seats for the Grand Old Party and 34-45 seats for the BJP. TV9 Bharatvarsh gave 40-50 seats to Congress and 35-45 to the saffron party. The Congress is projected to bag 46-55 seats and the BJP may win 35-45 seats, as per Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll. These results are mostly in sync with NDTV’s pre-poll survey in October in which 79 per cent of voters had said they were happy with the Bhupesh Baghel-led Congress government. Mizoram exit polls 2023 It may be a hung Assembly in Mizoram this time, leading to alliances between parties. ZPM and the MNF are engaged in a head-on battle, as per exit polls. India TV-CNX predicts 14-18 seats for the MNF, 12-16 for ZPM, 8-10 for Congress and 0-2 for the BJP. Times Now-ETG exit poll point that MNF could secure 14-18 seats, ZPM 10-14 seats, and the Congress 9-13 seats.

ABP News-C Voter has given MNF between 15-21 seats, 12-18 to ZPM and 2-8 to Congress. The MNF is likely to bag 10-14 seats, ZPM 15-25 seats, Congress 5-9 and the BJP 0-2, as per Jan Ki Baat exit poll. Chief Minister Zoramthanga has, however, said there would be no hung Assembly and his MNF will come to power again. Let’s wait till Sunday (3 December) – the day of the counting of ballots – and we will find out how accurate these exit polls were!