Ebrahim Raisi death: What happens next in Iran's politics?

The death of President Ebrahim Raisi has put a spotlight on Iran’s election process.

Raisi, 63, was found dead along with the country’s foreign minister and others at the site of a helicopter crash after an hours-long search through a foggy, mountainous region of the country’s northwest.

Raisi, the former chief of the judiciary, was handpicked by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei – the 84-year-old who has been in power since 1989.

But what happens in Iran now? What happened in recent polls?

Let’s take a closer look:

What happens next?

Under Iran’s constitution, if a president dies in office, the first vice president takes the helm.

In this case, it is Mohammad Mokhber who will become acting president.

This, of course, is subject to the Supreme Leader Khamenei – who remains in charge of all state matters in Iran – giving his assent.

Meanwhile, a council comprising the first vice president, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament and the head of the judiciary must arrange an election for a new president within 50 days.

Raisi was elected in 2021.

As per the timetable, a presidential election was slated to occur in 2025.

But now, under constitutional rules, the poll will be held in July.

What happened in recent polls?

Iran in March held polls to elect its parliament and its Assembly of Experts.

Iran’s Parliament, known as the Islamic Consultative Assembly, has 290 members.

Meanwhile, its Assembly of Experts are responsible for choosing, sacking and keeping an eye on the supreme leader, as per The Conversation.

However, the vote isn’t exactly free and fair in Iran.

This is because the country’s Guardian Council – overseen by Khamenei – picks and chooses who it allows to stand for polls.

As per The Guardian, the council examines age, education and piety of politicians before giving its assent for them to stand for office.

Though it insists it is not political, it usually bars politicians calling for any change within the country’s government, known broadly as reformists, from running in the election.

For example, Iran’s former moderate president Hassan Rouhani,  who concluded Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, was barred from running for re-election to the Assembly in March.

Rouhani, who did not name anyone, criticised his disqualification saying “the minority that rules officially and publicly wants to reduce people’s participation in elections.”

As per The Conversation, while 49,000 people registered to run for parliament just 14,200 applicants were given the go-ahead.

Just 30 reform candidates were approved – resulting in claims that the polls are “meaningless, non-competitive, unfair, and ineffective in the administration of the country”.

Meanwhile, many of those calling for radical reforms or abandoning Iran’s theocratic system did not even bother to register as candidates.

The vote also was the first since the 2022 mass protests over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after being arrested over allegedly not wearing her required hijab to the liking of authorities.

Some, including, including imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, had called for a boycott.

Little wonder then that the March polls witnessed hard-line politicians dominate amid a record- low turnout and boycott calls.

Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi at the time said 25 million ballots were cast — a turnout of just under 41 per cent.

The lowest previous turnout came in the last parliamentary election in 2020, which saw 42 per cent of Iranians cast their ballots.

The BBC reported that the second round of parliamentary elections witnessed a Tehran MP winning with just 3.5 per cent of eligible voters casting their ballots.

According to Voice of America, the low turnout was reflected by the newspaper Ham-Mihan initially using the headline “Silent Majority” on its front page.

However, the authorities forced the newspaper to change the headline to “Presence and Absence.”

It took days for Iran to announce the turnout statistics without explanation. The Interior Ministry run Iranian elections, which have no substantial international observation.

Of the 245 politicians elected, 200 were supported by hard-line groups in voter guides published before the election, according to an Associated Press analysis.

The analysis also identified some 45 incoming lawmakers as relatively moderate, conservative or independent. The current parliament includes 18 pro-reform politicians and 38 others recognized as independents.

Of those winning seats, only 11 were women. The current parliament has 16 women as legislators.

The rise of Raisi

The 2021 Iranian polls, which witnessed Raisi’s rise, unfolded in a similar manner.

As per Al Jazeera, the Guardian Council disqualified most candidates from running in the presidential polls.

None of the candidates who made it through the vetting process was a reformist.

Around 585 candidates including ex-firebrand Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who famously questioned the Holocaust, ex-parliament speaker Ali Larijani and then first vice-president Eshaq Jahangiri were all barred by the 12-member council.

Sadegh Amoli Larijani, the brother of the former speaker, himself on the council, said in a tweet that he has “never found its decisions so indefensible.”

According to The Guardian, Raisi himself claimed he was trying to get the council to approve more candidates to make the poll “participatory and competitive.”

Rouhani, then the outgoing president had critiqued the move.

“Minimal participation is not in anyone’s interest and the first losers as a result of minimal participation are the people and no political group will benefit from minimal participation,” Rouhani’s spokesman said at the time.

The vetting process in effect cleared the decks for Raisi – a protégé of Khamenei.

As per BBC, critics of Iran were quick to label the 2021 election ‘engineered.’

Experts predict a similar outcome this time.

Parham Ghobadi, senior reporter, BBC Persian, said, “A hardliner, loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, will be qualified to run and win in a dull election. Many believe the 85-year-old commander-in-chief is preparing for a smooth transition of power after his death, seemingly engineering Iran’s political landscape for his succession.”

“Early presidential elections could provide Khamenei and the upper echelons of the state with an opportunity to reverse that trajectory to give voters a way back into the political process,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of London-based news website Amwaj.media, told BBC.

“But, unfortunately, so far we have seen no indications of the state being ready and willing to take such a step.”

A piece in The Atlantic Council predicted that the Guardian Council “will likely be even more strict about who it allows to campaign.”

The piece said this is because authorities would be determined to ensure the next president can defend and protect the revolution at a time of domestic and regional upheaval.