Is Trump's ‘take over Canada’ gambit reviving Trudeau’s party ahead of elections?

Until just a few weeks ago, Canada’s political landscape seemed firmly tilted in favour of the opposition Conservatives.

With nearly a decade of Liberal rule under Justin Trudeau, widespread frustration over the rising cost of living had eroded public confidence in his government.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had been capitalising on this discontent, rallying his base around a campaign to repeal the carbon tax, with polls projecting a decisive Conservative majority in the next election.

However, the dynamics shifted dramatically when US President Donald Trump suggested that the United States might take over Canada. His remarks, ranging from economic coercion to outright annexation, have upended Canadian politics in a way few had anticipated.

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Speaking aboard Air Force One en route to the Super Bowl, Trump escalated his rhetoric, asserting that Canada is “not viable as a country” without US trade and suggesting that it can no longer rely on American military protection.

Canadian nationalism on the rise

Trump’s comments have triggered an unprecedented wave of patriotic sentiment across Canada. Slogans like “Canada Is Not for Sale” have gone viral, with Maga-style hats bearing the phrase becoming popular.

The reaction has even spilled into sports, where American teams have faced jeers from Canadian audiences, including at a children’s ice hockey tournament in Quebec City.

Amid this surge in nationalism, the Trudeau government has framed itself as the defender of Canadian sovereignty, rallying support under a unifying “Team Canada” approach.

In a recent speech addressing Trump’s threats, Trudeau highlighted unity: “In this moment, we must pull together because we love this country. We don’t pretend to be perfect, but Canada is the best country on earth. There’s nowhere else that I and our 41-million strong family would rather be, and we will get through this challenge just as we’ve done countless times before: together.”

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Liberals rebounding in the polls

For the past two years, the focus of Canadian political analysts had been on the scale of the expected Liberal defeat. Yet, in recent weeks, multiple polls indicate that the party has stopped its downward spiral — and Trump may be the reason.

A poll by Ipsos found that within two weeks of Trump’s comments, the Conservatives had lost around 12 percentage points.

Another survey by Leger in Quebec found that if former central banker Mark Carney were to lead the Liberals, they would surge ahead of both the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois.

In Ontario, a crucial battleground, a Mainstreet poll found the Liberals tied with the Conservatives or even slightly ahead among likely voters.

The Guardian quoted political analyst Éric Grenier who suggests that while the Conservatives remain favoured, the situation has changed: “This is very much a race that still favours the Conservatives. But if the Liberals gain even a couple more points, we’re in a place where they would suddenly become much more competitive, and the potential for a minority government is possible.”

Poilievre’s challenge: Distancing from Trump

For Poilievre, who has leaned into populist rhetoric and drawn comparisons to Trump, the current shift presents a strategic dilemma. His combative stance against Trudeau had been effective, but now he must navigate a landscape where nationalism is uniting voters across party lines.

One of Poilievre’s biggest challenges is his party’s complex relationship with Trump. While a portion of Conservative supporters admire the US president, others expect Poilievre to take a strong stance against Trump’s aggressive posturing.

A recent Nanos poll found that 40 per cent of Canadians believe Mark Carney is best suited to handle Trump, while only 26 per cent think Poilievre is up to the task.

This puts Poilievre in a difficult position: embracing Trump-like policies could alienate a significant portion of the electorate, while opposing Trump too strongly could upset his base.

“Adopting a Canada-first approach to the election is needed, but it’s an awkward one for them, because they’ve been saying for the last couple years that the country is broken,” said Grenier. “And now they have to say: ‘Well, it is but we still really love it.’ And it also feels a bit forced because a segment of their voting base – and probably a segment of their caucus – prefers to have Donald Trump as a president.”

The end of Trudeau, but a new life for his party?

A key turning point in the race was Trudeau’s decision to step down, which upended Conservative plans to campaign against him directly. Trudeau’s unpopularity had been a major boon for Poilievre, but now the election is no longer about Trudeau’s legacy.

Additionally, with both leading Liberal candidates — Carney and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland — indicating they will not move forward with the carbon tax, the debate over taxation has also faded.

Instead, the election is increasingly shaping up to be a referendum on who is best equipped to manage Canada’s relationship with Trump.

A July 2024 Environics poll indicated that Canadians feel strongly about protecting their national identity, with 90 per cent rejecting the idea of joining the US under any circumstances.

Another poll by Angus Reid found that the percentage of Canadians who say they are “very proud” of their country jumped from 34 per cent in December to 44 per cent in February.

For the Liberals, this shift has been an unexpected boon. “It may still be a ‘change’ election, but it looks like it is not going to be a carbon tax election. Rhyming couplets like ‘axe the tax’ feel a little stale and disconnected from contemporary political and economic challenges,” The Guardian quoted Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin.

“And if the next election is going to be about how we rewire our relationship to the United States in the face of Trump’s capriciousness, someone with the credentials of Mark Carney starts to look interesting to some voters, and it at least gives the Liberal party the possibility of resurrecting itself.”

Will the shift last?

Despite the current surge in support for the Liberals, experts caution against assuming the shift will last. Scott Reid describes the polling surge as “more akin to a spark than a bonfire.” If the election were held today, the Conservatives would still likely win a majority.

However, one major unpredictable factor remains: Trump himself. His rhetoric has already reshaped the Canadian election landscape, and as Reid notes, he could easily do so again: “What will Donald Trump do in the coming months when there’s a new prime minister on the scene? How might he blunder into the minefield of Canadian politics? We just don’t know. But we almost do know that it will happen. Either he determines the ballot question or, on any given day, he has the capacity to dictate the ballot question of the next election. That’s just the reality of it.”

With the next Canadian federal election looming before late October, Trump’s words — and how Canadian leaders respond — may continue to shape the country’s political future in ways no one could have predicted just months ago.

With inputs from agencies