Does the Islamic State wield influence in the US?

In 2019, the self-described ‘caliphate’ of the Islamic State lost control of most of its territory in Syria and Iraq.

Yet, five years later, the terror group continues to inspire ‘lone wolves’ to carry out attacks.

Like the US man who used a car to run over partygoers in in New Orleans’ French Quarter – leaving 15 dead and dozens injured.

But how does the Islamic State continue to wield influence in the US?

Let’s take a closer look:

A brief look at the Islamic State

First, let’s take a brief look at the Islamic State.

It is also known as IS, ISIS, or the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

According to Los Angeles Times, the Islamic State established itself in 2014 under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Al-Baghdadi was a  militant cleric and insurgent leader in Iraq.

He styled himself as the ‘caliph’ of the Islamic State.

The Islamic State initially began as a breakaway group from al-Qaida.

Under leader al-Baghdadi, IS captured massive amounts of territory in Iraq and Syria.

Its harsh interpretation of Islam witnessed thousands of people being raped, killed and enslaved.

The group even targeted fellow Sunni Muslims who disagreed with its teachings.

Members of other religions and other Islamic sects faced decapitations, crucifixion, torture.

The group also took several westerners as hostages including US journalist James Foley, who it beheaded in 2014 and Kayla Mueller, an aide worker from Arizona.

Its members also carried out shootings and bombings in Europe including in the high-profile cities of Paris and Brussels.

In 2017, a military coalition led by the US removed the group’s hold on Mosul – Iraq’s second largest city.

Those that were loyal to the group fled to eastern Syria.

In 2019, al-Baghdadi was desperate and cornered.

With US forces closing in, Baghdadi killed himself and two children in a suicide blast.

Donald Trump, US president at the time, proclaimed that the Islamic State had been “obliterated,” as per LA Times.

The Islamic State is currently a scattered and much weakened organisation working to regain fighting strength and territory in Syria and Iraq.

Experts warn that the group is reconstituting itself there.

And that flag? Typically, it’s a black banner with white Arabic letters expressing a central tenet of the Islamic faith. Countless Muslims around the world see the coercive violence of the group as a perversion of their religion.

What about its influence in the US?

The FBI says it recovered the black banner of the Islamic State from the rented truck of New Orleans attacker Shamsud-Din Jabbar.

Authorities say they will closely examine if Jabbar received support from the terror group or any of its 19  affiliates.

As per The Conversation, Christopher Raia of the FBI’s counterterrorism division said Jabbar was “100% inspired by ISIS.”

President Joe Biden said Wednesday evening that the FBI had told him that “mere hours before the attack , (Jabbar) posted videos on social media indicating that he was inspired” by IS.

This isn’t the first time the Islamic State has seemingly influenced people to carry out attacks in the United States.

In 2016, a gunman killed 49 people at the Pulse nightclub in Florida.

It was the US’ worst terror attack since 9/11.

As per CNN, the gunman, Omar Mateen, 29, had sworn allegiance to al-Baghdadi, ISIS and the Boston Marathon bombers.

The outlet quoted a message posted in Arabic on a dark website associated with the ISIS news agency Amaq as saying, “the armed attack that targeted a gay night club in the city of Orlando in the American state of Florida and that bore more than a 100 killed and wounded was carried out by an Islamic state fighter.”

Mateen in his 911 raged against the “filthy ways of the West.”

In 2015, a couple who killed 14 people in California’s San Bernadino, as per LA Times.

They were later hailed by the Islamic State as supporters.

BBC quoted US officials as saying that Tashfeen Malik, one of the attackers, pledged allegiance to Islamic State on social media on the day of the shooting.

Her husband, Syed Rizwan Farook, helped her carry out the horrific crime at her place of work.

Abida Rani, a friend of Malik, told the Washington Post that she noticed a change around 2009.

That was when Malik, who grew up in Saudi Arabia but later shifted to Multan in Pakistan, became intrigued by Islamic studies.

Rani said Malik would often travel to a madrassa to be tutored in the ultra-conservative Wahhabi branch of Islam.

It’s not just the United States either.

According to LA Times, the Islamic State-Khorasan has also carried out several high-profile attacks over the past year.

This includes an attack on a concert hall in Moscow that left over 140 dead and a twin bombings at a funeral procession in Iran that left 100 dead.

The ISIS-K was also thought to be responsible for the August 2021 bombing that left 13 US service members and 170 Afghans dead amid the US exit from Afghanistan.

The Islamic State in Somalia this week said it carried out an attack that left over 20 military personnel dead.

In March, an Islamic State affiliate in Niger claimed it had killed 30 soldiers in an assault.

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria may also revitalise the group – which has a large number of  fighters in detention facilities across the nation.

“If a large number of these ISIS fighters escaped, it would pose an extreme danger to the region and beyond,” Centcom commander General Michael Erik Kurilla said as per the LA Times.

What do experts say?

That the threat is very real.

Clara Broekaert, a research fellow at the Soufan Center who focuses on terrorism, told Bloomberg the year 2024 “saw about five foiled Islamic State plots, which is a significant increase since 2023.”

She said most of the plans were inspired by Islamic State rather than directed by it.

A piece in The Conversation noted that the terror group has sought to prey on isolated individuals with mental health struggles and personal grievances against the West.

The article noted that it looks like the assault was planned independently of the group rather than at the behest of any of its leaders.

“This highlights the decentralised and unpredictable nature of the current terrorist threat landscape,” the piece argued.

“By inspiring individuals to carry out attacks independently, the Islamic State group aims to create an atmosphere of fear and instability, demonstrating its global influence despite lacking a physical caliphate. It has actively sought to radicalize and mobilize individuals in the US through digital platforms, spreading violent narratives and offering tactical guidance to potential attackers,” the piece noted.

The piece contended that this tactic allows the group to keep itself relevant and show its strength despite the loss of its territory.

Authorities agree that the stakes are high at the moment.

Over the past year, FBI officials have warned about a significantly elevated threat of international terrorism after Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023 and the resulting Israeli strikes in Gaza.

FBI Director Christopher Wray, who is set to resign at the end of the Biden administration, told The Associated Press in an August interview that he was “hard pressed to think of a time in my career where so many different kinds of threats are all elevated at once.”

The SITE intelligence group reported IS supporters celebrating in online chat groups Wednesday.

“If it’s a brother, he’s a legend. Allahu Akbar,” or “God is great,” it quoted one as saying.

With inputs from agencies