Did exit polls get it wrong? How BJP is surging in Haryana

The BJP surge in Haryana is taking many by surprise.

Though the early trends showed the Congress leading in the state in which it is hoping to make a return after 10 years, the incumbent BJP has pulled ahead.

The latest results show the saffron party leading in 49 seats, while the grand old party is ahead in 35 seats, according to the latest data available on the Election Commission website.

Independents are leading on three seats, while the INLD is ahead on two seats.

The AAP and JJP are yet to open their accounts.

The majority mark in the 90-seat Haryana Assembly is 45 seats.

Haryana had recorded a voter turnout of 67.90 per cent.

But what had the exit polls predicted?

Let’s take a closer look:

What did they say?

The pollsters had unanimously predicted an easy win for the Congress in Haryana.

The Dainik Bhaskar exit polls had given the Congress between 44 and 54 seats, while it predicted the BJP would net between 19 and 29 seats.

Dhruv Research, meanwhile, said the Congress would get between 50 and 64 seats, while the BJP would land between 22 and 32 seats.

The India Today-C-Voter polls gave the Congress between 50 and 58 seats. The pollster predicted 20 to 28 seats for the BJP in Haryana.

The Jist-TIF research polls said the Congress would nab between 45 and 53 seats.

It said the BJP would get 29 to 37 seats.

The Republic Bharat-Matrize polls said the Congress would win between 55 and 62 seats, while the BJP would get just 18 to 24 seats.

The Red Mike-Datansh exit poll gave the Congress 50 and 55 seats in Haryana and the BJP 20 to 25 seats.

The Peoples’ Pulse exit poll gave the Congress between 49 and 61 seats, while the BJP was predicted to get 20 to 32 seats in Haryana.

What’s the current state of play?

Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, who is contesting from Ladwa in Kurukshetra, was leading by a margin of 9,632 votes over his Congress rival and sitting MLA Mewa Singh.

Former chief minster leader Hooda, who is seeking a reelection from Garhi Sampla-Kiloi, was leading by a healthy margin of 41,077 votes over the BJP’s Manju Hooda.

Congress’ Vinesh Phogat, an Olympic wrestler, was ahead of her BJP rival Yogesh Kumar in Julana seat in Jind district by 4,130 votes.
In the outgoing assembly, the BJP has 41 MLAs (including the Adampur seat won in 2022 bypoll), the Congress has 28 MLAs, the JJP (6), while the Haryana Lokhit Party and Indian National Lok Dal have one member each. There are four Independents, while nine seats are vacant.

According to the latest EC trends, Indian National Lok Dal leader Abhay Singh Chautala, the sitting MLA from Ellenabad, was trailing the Congress’ Bharat Singh Beniwal by 7,710 votes.

However, Abhay’s son and INLD candidate Arjun Chautala was leading from the Rania seat over his granduncle and Independent candidate Ranjit Chautala by a margin of 6,161 votes.

From the Uchana Kalan seat, Congress’ Brijendra Singh was leading over his nearest BJP rival Devinder Attri by a margin of 3,236 votes, while sitting MLA and JJP leader Dushyant Chautala was trailing.

Among the Independents, Savitri Jindal, mother of BJP MP from Kurukshetra Naveen Jindal, was leading from Hisar seat over her nearest rival Ram Niwas Rara of the Congress by a margin of 3,836 votes. BJP MLA Kamal Gupta was trailing from Hisar.

From Ambala Cantt, senior BJP leader and former Minister Anil Vij was trailing Independent Chitra Sarwara by a slender margin of 671 votes.

Among other Independents in the lead are Devinder Kadian (a BJP rebel) from Ganaur and Rajesh Joon (Congress rebel) from Bahadurgarh.

Bahujan Samaj Party’s Attar Lal was leading from Ateli seat over BJP rival Arti Singh Rao by a margin of 5,424 votes. Arti is daughter of Union Minister and BJP MP from Gurgaon, Rao Inderjit Singh.

BSP contested the polls in alliance with the INLD.

Other leading candidates include BJP’s Rao Narbir Singh from Badshahpur, Bhavya Bishnoi from Adampur, Mool Chand Sharma from Ballabhgarh, Ranbir Gangwa from Barwala, and Vipul Goel from Faridabad.

Harvinder Kalyan is leading from Gharaunda, Mukesh Sharma from Gurgaon, Krishan Lal Panwar from Israna, Gian Chand Gupta from Panchkula, Subhash Sudha from Thanesar, Mahipal Dhanda from Panipat Rural and Shruti Choudhary from Tosham.

Among other Congress candidates who were leading are Aditya Surjewala from Kaithal, Brijendra Singh from Uchana Kalan, B B Batra from Rohtak, Geeta Bhukkal from Jhajjar, Raghuvir Singh Kadian from Beri and Rao Dan Singh from Mahendragarh.

Aftab Ahmed is leading from Nuh, Mamman Khan from Ferozepur Jhirkha and Mohd Illyas from Punhana.
The trailing candidates include BJP’s O P Dhankar from Badli and Capt Abhimanyu from Narnaund, Congress’ Kuldeep Sharma from

Ganaur, Anirudh Chaudhary from Tosham, and Haryana Lokhit Party chief Gopal Kanda from Sirsa.

While the BJP is looking to retain power for a third consecutive term, the Congress is eyeing a comeback in Haryana after 10 years.
Haryana’s Chief Electoral Officer Pankaj Agarwal said three-tier security arrangements have been put in place at counting venues.
Agarwal had Monday said the postal ballots will be counted first, followed by the counting of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs).

With inputs from agencies