'Deadlier than COVID': How dangerous is Disease X?

The next pandemic could take 50 million lives, claimed Dame Kate Bingham, the United Kingdom’s Vaccine Taskforce head. He added that the disease might already be on its way and that COVID-19 was not particularly deadly. Over 2.5 million people have died worldwide since the coronavirus pandemic started in late 2019. World Health Organization (WHO) has dubbed the new pandemic as Disease X. But what is it? How deadly is it? Let’s take a closer look. Also read: How hot flashes can increase the risk of Alzheimer’s & cardiovascular disease About Disease X The WHO first used the phrase “Disease X” in 2018, a year before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, and has since been updating the list of priority diseases that could spark the next catastrophic pandemic, including Ebola, SARS, and Zika, according to Times Now. The global health agency website states that Disease X “represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease.” It can be an entirely novel virus, bacteria, or fungus. It might be connected to a zoonotic illness, probably an RNA virus, causing a concern that necessitates ongoing observation and control. According to medical professionals, it’s possible that domestic or wild animals may have developed this fatal infection before it spread to humans. Notably, the first zoonotic virus, which caused yellow fever, was identified in 1901. According to India.com, experts believe ecological devastation and trade in animals play a significant role in the growing number of new viruses. Also read: Plant Pandemic is Real: How a disease is threatening wheat, the world’s most important food crop “Next pandemic” fears While speaking to Dailymail, Bingham said, “The world will have to prepare for mass vaccination drives and deliver the doses in record time… Imagine Disease X is as infectious as measles with the fatality rate of Ebola (67 per cent). Somewhere in the world, it’s replicating, and sooner or later, somebody will start feeling sick.” She claims that even though researchers have discovered 25 virus families, which collectively include thousands of distinct viruses, there are still millions of unknown viruses. [caption id=“attachment_13194032” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The WHO first used the phrase “Disease X” in 2018, a year before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. Pixabay[/caption] While COVID-19 and its variations have an impact on recurring and well-known health concerns, medical professionals have begun preparing for a potential new pandemic – Disease X. They have also issued a warning that this new virus has the potential to be just as harmful as the Spanish Flu. The debate However, top scientists and experts don’t agree on this. They believe, “Disease X is just an imaginary or hypothetical illness.” The disease X is “an imaginary scenario” in which a new infection causes a new pandemic that is more severe than past ones, according to Dr Anurag Agrawal, Dean, BioSciences and Health Research, Ashoka University. “There is no such pathogen immediately and the exercise is for conceptualising a suitable action plan against future threats,” News18 quoted him as saying. On the other hand, Dr NK Arora, head of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI) – an apex panel which makes critical decisions on the use and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines in India, compares the unknown infection to a thief or intruder that the normal person imagines breaking into their home, prompting them to set up security cameras and go ready with various weapons. Arora explained, “That thief may never enter your house but in preparation, you install CCTV cameras, lock the house, buy a dog, and keep arms ready and much more. Disease X is similar to that imaginary thief which may not come in our lifetime, but preparations are required right now. The community of scientists is getting ready, imagining that potential intruder.” Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, former Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) epidemiology and communicable diseases chief, told News18 that there is a need to reduce the anxiety or tension caused by Disease X and that it is more important than ever to be aware of potential pathogens. “The risk of transmission from zoonotic diseases is increasing dramatically due to climate change. Forests are being affected due to which the transmission from animals to humans will increase,” he said, explaining that bats are known as reservoirs for about 40 viruses of which only six are known so far, including coronavirus. Gangakhedkar oversaw the nation’s response to the Nipah virus epidemics in Kerala and Covid-19. He suggested that India step up its preparations for the “One Health” objective, which heavily relies on animal observation. “A One Health approach that aims to bridge institutional gaps, build and stratify priority risk and alert pathogens, and emphasise mitigation strategies for emerging and re-emerging pathogens - potential disease X should be the need of the hour to prevent these global and global catastrophes,” Dr Neha Rastogi, Consultant, infectious disease, Fortis Memorial Research Institute, Gurugram, told Hindustan Times. Dr Vishal Rao, a member of the COVID-19 Task Force of Karnataka’s Genomic Surveillance Committee, gave a thorough road map of how India is putting together its defences against Disease X. “The team at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), in collaboration with Bangalore BioInnovation Centre, Department of Biotechnology, Government of Karnataka, and state department of health under the M-Path programme, has identified 32 potential pathogens,” he said. The team will work together with other state departments, including urban development, rural and panchayat raj, and other organisations to monitor these infections at the district level and improve surveillance. He added, “The team is developing a multiplexed serology platform, called M-PATHS, designed to identify antibodies against human pathogens that are specific to India. This platform will be developed over the next 24 months.” Also read: Explained: How the World Health Organisation aims to fight pandemics in the future WHO’s strategy According to India.com, WHO collaborates closely with a group of experts known as the “R&D Blueprint Scientific Advisory Group.” They claim that Disease X may lead to an outbreak in the future and that it was classified as an “unknowable pathogen” in February 2018. The WHO is formulating a global response plan for Disease X, as per TheHealthSite.com. Early virus discovery, containment, and the development of vaccines and treatments are all part of the plan. The WHO is also working to raise awareness of illness X in the general public and to convince countries to support R&D for infectious diseases. Prevention Dr Rastogi told Hindustan Times, “Containment and mitigation strategies involve development and implementation of uniform international guidelines to control bioterrorism. Immediate and appropriate travel restrictions including strict airport screening required to be implemented to contain the spread of pathogen X across borders. It also necessitates a collaborative approach of global leaders, scientists, epidemiologists, and infectious disease experts to investigate, control, and eliminate disease X. Widespread and mass testing, surveillance and aggressive contact tracing are potentially effective tools to timely contain outbreak-like situations.” She added that stronger efforts to hasten access and quick availability of immediate medical measures, including test kits, immunisations, and first aid are needed before and during the pandemic. In order to lessen and counteract the serious negative effects of disease X, ongoing continuity research on preventative aspects - development and process of vaccinations - needs to be given more attention. With inputs from agencies