Who will be the next Dalai Lama? Who gets to decide?

Who will succeed the Dalai Lama? It’s a question that has been doing the rounds as the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader is nearing his 90th birthday (July 6). As celebrations begin, the Dalai Lama has put an end to the speculation. He has clarified that only the Gaden Phodrang Trust, the Office of His Holiness, holds the sole authority to recognise his future reincarnation.

He said on Wednesday (July 2) that the 600-year-old institution will continue after his death, a decision that will have a profound impact on his Buddhist followers.

In a move that challenges China’s attempts to control the succession of the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, said that he had declared in 1969 that the continuation of the Dalai Lama institution should be a decision for the Tibetan people and the followers of Tibetan Buddhism.

“I hereby reiterate that the Gaden Phodrang Trust has sole authority to recognise the future reincarnation; no one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,” the Dalai Lama said , pushing back against the idea of a China-backed successor.

The Dalai Lama said he had received multiple appeals over the past 14 years from Tibetan diaspora in exile, Buddhists from across the Himalayan region, Mongolia and parts of Russia and China, “earnestly requesting that the institution of the Dalai Lama continue”.

“In particular, I have received messages through various channels from Tibetans in Tibet making the same appeal,” he said in a video broadcast at the start of a meeting of religious leaders in Himachal Pradesh’s Dharamshala, where he has lived for decades. “In accordance with all these requests, I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue,” he added, according to an official translation.

The process of selecting a successor to the Dalai Lama holds significant importance not only for his followers but also for China, India and the United States, due to geopolitical considerations.

So, how will this succession unfold?

How was the current Dalai Lama chosen?

According to Tibetan belief, the soul of a high-ranking Buddhist monk is reborn in a new body after death.

The 14th Dalai Lama, originally named Lhamo Dhondup and born on July 6, 1935, to a farming family in the region now called Qinghai province, was identified as the reincarnation at the age of two.

As described on the Dalai Lama’s official website, the selection was based on multiple signs interpreted by a team dispatched by the Tibetan government, including a vision received by a senior monk.

The team became convinced when the young child recognised items that had belonged to the 13th Dalai Lama, saying, “It’s mine, it’s mine”.

In the winter of 1940, Lhamo Dhondup was taken to Lhasa’s Potala Palace — now in the Tibet Autonomous Region — and formally installed as the spiritual leader of the Tibetan people.

How will the next Dalai Lama be chosen?

In his book Voice for the Voiceless, published in March this year, the Dalai Lama stated that his successor would be born outside of China.

He has lived in exile in northern India since 1959 after escaping a failed revolt against Mao Zedong’s Communist government.

In the book, he mentioned plans to reveal more about his succession process near his 90th birthday.

Speaking in Dharamshala on Monday, he said: “There will be some kind of a framework within which we can talk about the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lamas”. However, he gave no further details.

The Tibetan parliament-in-exile, based in Dharamshala like the Dalai Lama, has said that mechanisms are in place to allow the exiled government to continue functioning, and that senior officers of the Gaden Phodrang Foundation will be tasked with locating and recognising the next Dalai Lama.

The foundation, created by the current Dalai Lama in 2015, is intended to “maintain and support the tradition and institution of the Dalai Lama” in regard to his spiritual and religious responsibilities, according to its website.

Several of the Dalai Lama’s close aides hold senior roles within the organisation.

Where does China stand?

Beijing claims that its leadership has the authority to approve the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, citing historical precedent from imperial times. The selection method involving names drawn from a golden urn dates back to 1793, during the rule of the Qing dynasty.

Chinese authorities have repeatedly insisted that the reincarnation must adhere to domestic legal procedures, which require the use of the golden urn and that the rebirth occurs within China’s borders.

However, many Tibetans view China’s involvement as a strategic effort to assert control over their religious community.

The Dalai Lama has said it is improper for Chinese Communists, who do not believe in religion, “to meddle in the system of reincarnation of lamas, let alone that of the Dalai Lama”.

In his book, he urged Tibetans not to accept “a candidate chosen for political ends by anyone, including those in the People’s Republic of China,” referring to the nation by its official designation.

The Chinese government considers the Dalai Lama, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989 for sustaining the Tibetan movement, as a “separatist”. Public displays of his image or expressions of reverence are strictly forbidden in China.

In March, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry referred to the Dalai Lama as a political exile with “no right to represent the Tibetan people at all”.

China rejects accusations of suppressing Tibetan rights, asserting instead that its governance abolished serfdom and brought development to what it describes as a previously underdeveloped region.

Where do India and the US come in?

Beyond the Dalai Lama himself, India hosts more than 100,000 Tibetan Buddhists who have the freedom to study and work within the country.

The Dalai Lama is widely respected in India, and foreign policy analysts note that his presence provides New Delhi with a degree of diplomatic leverage in its ongoing tensions with Beijing.

The United States, locked in strategic rivalry with China, has consistently expressed its support for the protection of Tibetan human rights.

US legislators have made clear their opposition to any Chinese interference in the selection of the next Dalai Lama.

In 2024, then-US President Joe Biden signed legislation urging China to address long-standing demands for increased Tibetan autonomy.

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With inputs from Reuters