Could Trump’s ‘peace deal’ hurt Ukraine and benefit Russia?

Could US president Donald Trump’s proposed peace deal hurt Ukraine and benefit Russia?

Ahead of the meeting at the White House today, Trump is said to be urging Ukraine to concede a key region to Russia. Trump is also said to be pushing Ukraine to abandon its goal of joining the North Atlantic Treaty organisation (Nato).

The development comes the day after Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit in Alaska. Trump in the lead up to the summit had vowed consequences for Russia if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire.

However, no such deal was reached between Putin and Trump. Interestingly, the development comes in the backdrop of Trump envoy Steve Witkoff saying Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to a US proposal offering Ukraine a Nato Article 5-style security guarantee.

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But what do we know about Trump’s peace deal? Will it hurt Russia and benefit Ukraine?

Let’s take a closer look:

But what do we know about Trump’s peace deal?

Trump will likely push Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cede the entire Donbas region to Russia in exchange for a peace deal. The region, known for its high-quality coal, is the industrial heartland of Ukraine. It comprises Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia already controls all of the former and much of the latter.

Trump wrote on social media on Saturday night, “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.””

Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!" Trump added.

Putin is said to demanded that Kyiv completely remove its troops from the Donbas region. Russia, in turn, has vowed to freeze the front lines in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. “If Russia’s demands were met, Putin would not continue the offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, so there would be a kind of freeze there,” a source was quoted as saying.

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However, most of these regions are already under control. Russia has also proposed to economically and militarily take over the parts of Ukraine it already controls. The plan, which mimics Israel’s approach in the West Bank, is said to have the backing Witkoff, who is also Trump’s envoy to West Asia. Much like the West Bank, this territory would also be governed by an independent body.

Trump is believed to have conveyed this demand to Zelenskyy after the summit with the Russian president. However, Zelenskyy  rejected the proposal out of hand. Trump had earlier suggested some sort of ‘land swap’ between Ukraine and Russia to resolve the war.

“Putin wants us to leave Donbas. We will not leave Donbas. We cannot do this,” Zelenskyy said. “Everyone forgets the first part our territories are illegally occupied.” According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine controls around 9000 square kilometers of Dontesk. Trump is seemingly getting ready to propose this this deal to Zelenskyy yet again at the White House.

A number of European leaders including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK prime Minister Kier Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have pushed back against any such deal. They have insisted that no deal regarding the territory of Ukraine can be made without Kyiv.

Zelenskyy has also pushed for security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any potential ceasefire deal. He said it cannot be “like it was years ago… when Ukraine was given so called ‘security guarantees’ in 1994 but they didn’t work”.

“Of course, Crimea should not have been given up then,” he added. “Just as Ukrainians did not give up Kyiv, Odesa, or Kharkiv after 2022”.

Zelenskyy and the European leaders, known as the coalition of the willing, last week held a call with President Trump and Vice President JD wants ahead of the summit. The European allies in the phone call made it clear that Trump’s goal was to push for a ceasefire with Russia.

Already, Macron is warning against bartering territory for a ceasefire. “As part of a truce, a ceasefire or a peace deal, the country may recognise the loss of territories," Macron said.  “It will not recognize that they are under anyone else’s sovereignty, but will recognize their loss though military action. It doesn’t run counter to international law, but will be a very serious concession,” Macron added.

Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are among the European leaders in Washington DC for the Trump and Zelenskyy summit. Macron has said the European allies will present a united front during the meeting with Trump. There are reports that the European leaders fear a repeat of the disastrous Trump-Zelenskyy meeting earlier this year in the White House.

Putin is also seeking — at the very least — formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea. Putin invaded this territory in 2014 under then US President Barack Obama. He has declared the territories he invaded as ‘independent republics’ and held sham elections.

The Trump administration has earlier poured cold water on Ukraine’s aspirations to get back territory annexed by Russia.

n May, US Senior Director for Counterterrorism Sebastian Gorka, said “the Trump administration lives in the real world.”

“We recognise the reality on the ground,” he added. “No. 1, that’s the beginning because we’re not utopianists and we’re not human engineers. We’re not some kind of pie-in-the-sky believers in utopia.”

“We recognise the reality on the ground and we have one priority above all else, whether it’s the Middle East or whether it’s Ukraine. It’s to stop the bloodshed. Everything else comes after the bloodshed has been halted.”

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in February described a return to the 2014 border ‘as unrealistic.’

Hegseth, addressing the Nato alliance, said, “We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.”

Putin during the Alaska summit with Trump also refused to agree to a ceasefire. Instead, Putin is said to be pushing for a comprehensive peace deal – which yet again plays into Russia’s hands. A ceasefire could have bought Ukraine, which has been pushed back by Russia in recent months, time to gather its strength. It could also give Kyiv a break from the incessant drone attacks from Moscow.

Will it hurt Russia and benefit Ukraine?

Experts say the deal seems tailor-made to do so.

“The whole idea of heading for a full agreement favours Putin,”  a senior European diplomat told the Washington Post on condition of anonymity.

“Putin and his team know all the details” and Trump doesn’t, the diplomat added.

Fiona Hill, who advised Trump on Russia during his first term,  told CBS, “The optics were much more favourable to Putin than they were to the United States. It really looked like Putin set the agenda there, the narrative and in many respects the tone for the whole summit meeting.”

“We didn’t want to set up a summit where we were literally rolling out the red carpet for Putin in America to have him come and walk away and continue the war without any clear and convincing outcome of the summit,” ex-Joe Biden NSA Jake Sullivan told ABC News.

“I think our judgment on that was correct”, Sullivan added. He said any meet needs to be “properly prepared to produce an outcome that the American president can articulate in advance and produce in the aftermath”.

“The outcome that this American president articulated, a ceasefire or consequences – he did not produce,” Sullivan said. “And that is why I think we find ourselves in a difficult situation today.”

With inputs from agencies