Citizens go offline, shut banks and more: How Taiwan prepares for possible China invasion

Taiwan is gearing up for polls to elect a new president on 13 January. As the polling date draws near, there are heightened fears about China’s interference. Millions of people offline, banks knocked down, and the world’s most advanced semiconductor sector immobilised – self-ruled Taiwan’s doomsday scenario not only includes invading Chinese forces but also a wave of attacks against its cyber infrastructure. Taiwan’s security planners continuously rehearse worst-case scenarios in anticipation of the day China decides to try to seize control of the island, which it claims as its territory. The officials and cybersecurity experts have warned that if Beijing invades, it won’t stop attacking defense systems and security forces. Instead, it will completely cut off the island from the outside world. Let’s take a closer look at how Taiwan prepares itself for Chinese invasion. Threat to Taiwan’s cybersecurity Taiwan is facing a persistent threat from stealthy attackers who gain access to computer networks to “sit and wait within the victim’s infrastructure,” said Crystal Tu, a cybersecurity researcher at Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security Research told AFP. They can be highly active during a time of conflict, Tu told the news agency, such as with a “cyber operation aimed at the disruption of critical infrastructure – including telecommunications, energy, and finance sectors.” The year before Saturday’s presidential election, which China has characterised as a choice between war and peace for the island’s 23 million citizens, has seen a sharp increase in cyberattacks against Taiwan.

According to Taiwanese officials, there are over five million cyberattacks against government agencies every day. Additionally, Taiwan ranked number one in Asia Pacific, according to cybersecurity firm Fortinet, which recorded an 80 per cent spike in cyberattacks in the first half of 2023. “The cyber operation toward Taiwan never really stops,” said Tu. Some tactics used against Taiwanese infrastructure have been identified as techniques used by Chinese state-sponsored groups. In 2023, Microsoft warned of the threat posed by Flax Typhoon, a Chinese-based organisation that targets Taiwan. Flax Typhoon “intends to perform espionage and maintain access” to multiple Taiwanese organisations for as long as possible, according to the US tech giant. Safeguarding the semiconductor sector Cybercriminals have not only attacked Taiwan’s defence and government agencies, but also its semiconductor industry. The supply of chips, which are essential to the world economy, depends heavily on Taiwanese firms. They are so significant that, according to a former US official, the US would sooner destroy this semiconductor infrastructure than allow Chinese armies to invade it last year. Over half of the world’s chip production is controlled by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which disclosed a data breach at one of its suppliers in 2023. “Taiwan is an important target because it is at the top of the critical high-tech supply chain,” said Fortinet’s Jim Liu, adding, “Geopolitics and (China-Taiwan) relations could inevitably increase cybersecurity incidents.” Since Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party was elected president of Taiwan in 2016, China has put more diplomatic and military pressure on the island. She shares the same opinions as DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, who regards Taiwan as an independent state and rejects China’s claim to the island. Worst-case scenario China’s growing aggression towards Taiwan, which has included simulated blockades of the island, has led to speculation among policymakers over Beijing’s possible invasion timing and tactics. Taiwanese officials claim that in the digital sphere, China might go beyond cyberattacks and essentially block Taiwan off from the outside world.

“Because Taiwan is an island, all communication with the outside world relies on undersea cables,” Taiwan’s deputy digital minister Huai-jen Lee told AFP in a recent interview, adding, “The worst-case scenario is all our undersea cables are cut off.” Taiwan is aiming high in order to get ready for that. The island is partnering with two international satellite service providers to work with the largest telecom business on the island, according to Deputy Digital Minister Lee, who spoke with AFP. According to him, 700 locations throughout Taiwan will have satellite receivers installed “to test whether we can switch communication systems” in an emergency. “The first thing… is to maintain the stability of the government’s command system and maintain the accuracy of the information provided” to civilians, he told AFP. The invasion will cost $10 trillion According to Bloomberg Economics, the Chinese invasion of Taiwan will cost around $10 trillion, which is equal to about 10 per cent of the global GDP. It also says South Korea, Japan and other East Asian economies will be most impacted. Two scenarios have been projected by the outlet: a Chinese invasion that involves the US in a local battle, and a blockade that prevents Taiwan from engaging in trade with the outside world. The impact on GDP is estimated using a range of models that account for the interruption to the region’s shipping, the impact on financial markets, trade bans, and tariffs. For the rest of the world, the biggest problem comes from the missing semiconductors. Factories producing laptops, smartphones, tablets that use high-end chips, and autos and other sectors using lower-end chips would be seriously affected. Bloomberg estimates a 40 per cent blow to GDP based on recent conflicts. China’s GDP will also take a 16.7 per cent blow if relations with major trade partners are turned off and there’s no access to advanced semiconductors. With inputs from AFP