Is China’s Xi Jinping stepping down? His absence from Brics summit fuels speculation

On Sunday (July 6), all eyes turned to Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro where leaders comprising the Brics forum met to conduct their annual meeting. However, two leaders of its most powerful members — China’s Xi Jinping and Vladmir Putin of Russia — have chosen to skip the annual meeting.

What is even more notable is that this is the first time since taking power in 2012 that Xi will be absent from the Brics stage which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is attending. In fact, on Sunday, PM Modi launched a scathing attack on Pakistan for supporting terrorism, and also said that it should not be acceptable that some say or do nothing against the spread of terror for the sake of personal or political gain.

But why has Xi chosen to skip the meeting? Is it a case of scheduling conflict as China has claimed or is it internal pressures or an indicator of his waning power? We analyse the possible reasons for Xi’s absence and why it matters to the Brics summit.

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What’s Brics and who’s attending?

In 2006, the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China came together to form Bric and four years later, it expanded to become Brics with the entry of South Africa. The group’s aim is to bring the world’s most important developing countries together, to challenge the political and economic power of the wealthier nations of North America and Western Europe.

Today, the group has extended membership to other countries as well — Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were invited to become members in January 2024. Even Argentina was called on, but President Javier Milei pulled out his country in 2023, shortly after taking office.

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For this year’s annual meet being held in Brazil, while Xi and Putin are absent, PM Modi from India and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa are in attendance. Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto is also expected to attend after the country officially joined Brics earlier this year. Members from UAE, Ethiopia and Egypt are also likely to join.

Why isn’t Xi attending?

According to China’s foreign ministry, Xi’s absence at the meeting — a first since 2012 — comes as a result of scheduling conflicts. However, China isn’t without a presence at the 17th Brics summit; Xi has sent his premier, Li Qiang, for the meeting in his stead.

But analysts and experts note that there’s more to Xi’s absence than just a scheduling conflict. Some China observers note that Xi is staying away from Rio de Janeiro to concentrate on managing China’s economic challenges. The Asian giant’s industrial profits plunged 9.1 per cent in May from a year earlier, an indicator that Beijing’s stimulus efforts are falling short in boosting enterprises’ profitability. Moreover, slow consumer spending and a slump in the real estate market has slowed down China’s economy. The unpredictable trade war with the United States is also a headache for the Asian nation.

Some experts observe that China is set to have a major political meeting later in the year and this may be the reason why Xi is focusing on domestic affairs rather than international summits. As Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore told CNN, “Brics may just not be his greatest priority as he focuses on steering China’s domestic economy.”

However, some others note that Xi’s absence from Brics is the latest indicator that the ‘forever leader’ may be stepping down or a transition of power is set to take place. In fact, speculation has been rife in China that a power change is brewing — the state-run Xinhua news outlet reported that the 24-member Political Bureau of the ruling Communist Party of China held a meeting in which it reviewed a set of new regulations on the work of the party’s institutions.

A China analyst pointed out in a South China Morning Post report that these changes hint at preparations for Xi’s retirement. “The rules may be set up to regulate the bodies because it’s a key time for power transition,” the analyst said.

Gordon Chang, an expert on US-China relations, also noted that Xi’s absence at the Brics summit is more about Xi’s waning power. “It’s extremely significant that Xi Jinping is not going. It suggests turbulence at home — there are signs he’s lost control of the military and that civilian rivals are reasserting power. This is a symptom of that,” Chang was quoted as saying by Fox News.

But not everyone agrees with this assessment and point out that the divisions within the Brics itself is a reason why Xi may have decided to skip the meeting. They stated that the group’s rapid expansion in the past few years has also led to a decline in cohesion. For instance, the Associated Press citing sources has said that some member states are calling for a firmer stance on Israel’s war in Gaza and its recent strikes on Iran. But not all member states are have agreed on it.

Why does Xi’s absence from Brics matter?

Xi’s absence at the Brics summit is significant; it reduces the group’s value. Moreover, Xi’s decision to skip the summit is also a missed opportunity to reinforce China’s leadership among Global South nations and position itself as a counterweight to Western influence — an image Beijing has long cultivated.

Additionally, the group’s standing may also be affected by the fact that it is not just Xi but also Russia’s Vladimir Putin who has skipped the meeting. The Russian president is facing an international criminal court arrest warrant as a result of the ongoing war against Ukraine and may have decided not to travel to Rio to avoid embarrassing the summit hosts, who are signatories to the ICC statute.

But irrespective of the outcome of Brics, the US is watching is closely. In fact, US President Trump has already threatened to impose an additional 10 per cent tariff on countries aligning themselves with the “anti-American” policies of the Brics grouping. “Any country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of Brics, will be charged an additional 10 per cent tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday night.

Now, we will just have to wait and watch to see how the situation unfolds.

With inputs from agencies