How China has pipped the US as Southeast Asia’s most favoured ally

A slight majority of Southeast Asians would choose to align with China over the United States, according to a new survey by a Singapore-based think tank. This is the first time that Beijing has overtaken Washington since 2020 when the annual survey started asking this question.

The study published Tuesday (2 April) also found that India is among the three least strategically relevant countries to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The sixth edition of The State of Southeast Asia study was conducted by the think tank ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute between 3 January and 23 February. As many as 1,994 respondents from the 10 ASEAN countries — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam — belonging to the private sector, academia, business, government, civil society and the media took part in the analysis.

Let’s take a closer look.

China is ASEAN’s most favoured ally

China has seen a surge in popularity in most of the ASEAN countries, the survey has revealed. About 50.5 per cent of respondents said they preferred to align with the Asian giant over its rival America, a jump from 38.9 per cent in 2023.

The US, which was the popular choice last year at 61.1 per cent, saw a decline to 49.5 per cent this year, reported South China Morning Post (SCMP).

The support for China was most evident among respondents from Malaysia (75.1 per cent), Indonesia (73.2 per cent) and Laos (70.6 per cent). Thailand and Brunei also saw a shift towards Beijing.

As per the Singapore-based think tank, these countries “have benefitted significantly from China’s Belt and Road Initiative and robust trade and investment relations,” reported Japan’s NHK World.

Notably, ASEAN and China have been each other’s largest trading partners for four straight years. Their trade volume touched $911.7 billion last year, according to CNBC.

The US was a preferred partner of the Philippines and Vietnam at 83.3 per cent and 79 per cent respectively. This can be partly attributed to these nations’ rising tensions with China in the South China Sea, reported Nikkei Asia.

As per Time magazine, China’s popularity fell in the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam.

About 45.5 per cent of respondents from ASEAN said they fear China would use its military and economic power to “threaten” their country’s interest and sovereignty, CNBC reported citing the study.

Beijing maintains its position as the most influential political and economic power in Southeast Asia , the survey found.

“[The report] is a statement of the fact that people think China has become the most influential economic power. But at the same time … levels of concern about the degree of influence are actually extremely high,” Danny Quah, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, was quoted as saying by Nikkei Asia.

“The fact that China is acknowledged as most influential does not mean acceptance of them, similarly if it were the US,” he added.

How the Gaza war plays a role

The plunge in the US’ popularity among people in Southeast Asia is reportedly driven by Washington’s nearly unbridled support to Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza.

Over 46 per cent of those surveyed said Israel’s war was a big concern for governments, with Muslim-majority nations in ASEAN ranking it at the top of their geopolitical concern.

Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, told SCMP that America’s “strong, almost unquestioning” pro-Israel stand on the Gaza war had especially led to “diminished confidence in US moderation and deliberation”.

“This extends beyond the fact that there are large Muslim populations in Southeast Asia. US willingness to hold up and veto UN processes looking at Israeli behaviour have decreased trust in Washington’s commitment to the current rules-based international order,” Chong said.

Speaking to SCMP, Sharon Seah, a senior fellow and coordinator of ASEAN studies at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said that though religion played a role in support for the Palestinians in Southeast Asia, the “growing humanitarian and human-rights violations are becoming a serious concern”.

How ASEAN views India

India’s influence in Southeast Asia is far behind its rival China.

Only 0.4 per cent of Southeast Asian respondents believe India is politically and strategically relevant to their countries, as per ThePrint report.

Among major powers’ regional influence and leadership, India was at the ninth position out of the 11 nations.

On the other hand, Beijing was at the top with 43.9 per cent of respondents saying that the Asian giant has the most political and strategic relevance to the region, ThePrint reported citing the study.

After China, the US and Japan were the most strategically relevant partners for Southeast Asians.

Japan remains the most trusted major power in the region, with 58.9 per cent of respondents expressing confidence in the country.

After Japan and the European Union, India is at the third post to broaden ASEAN’s strategic options among Southeast Asians.

Don’t want to pick

Experts say the key takeaway from the study is that Southeast Asians do not want to choose between the rival superpowers – the US and China.

Instead, about 46.8 per cent of respondents said that ASEAN should build up its resilience and unity to “fend off pressures” from Washington and Beijing.

“The key takeaway is that as the geopolitical environment becomes more volatile, the region is looking to enhance its internal resilience,” Seah, a lead author of the annual report, told Time.

With inputs from agencies