Why is China holding its largest-ever military drills around Taiwan? What does it mean for Taipei?

China is holding its largest ever military drills around Taiwan.

The development comes just days after Lai Ching-te was sworn in as the new president of Taiwan.

The drills were conducted by the Eastern Theatre Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwacn Strait, the north, south and east of Taiwan, as well as areas around the Taiwan-con rolled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin.

They involved the army, navy, air force and rocket force sending up heavily armed warplanes and staging mock attacks.

But why is Beijing doing so? And what does it mean for Taipei?

Let’s take a closer look:

Why is Beijing doing this?

A spokesperson for the PLA said the drills are a “strong punishment” for “separatist acts”.

Beijing, one might recall, has branded Lai a “dangerous separatist” who will bring “war and decline” to the island.

China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has denounced Lai’s inauguration speech on Monday, in which he called on China to stop its threats and said the two sides of the strait were “not subordinate to each other”.

On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Lai “disgraceful”.

Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China but been rebuffed.

He says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.

The spokesperson also added that this was a “stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces."

As per NDTV, this is a reference to the United States.

While the US does not recognise Taiwan as an independent nation, it remains its strongest backer and biggest weapons supplier.

Washington is obligated to protect Taiwan from invasion under a 1979 law.

Chinese state media said China sent out dozens of fighter jets carrying live missiles, and conducted mock strikes, along with warships, of high-value military targets.

The drills, dubbed “Joint Sword - 2024A”, are scheduled to last for two days. However, unlike a similar “Joint Sword” exercise in April last year, these drills are tagged “A”, opening the door to potential follow-ups.

“The drills focus on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets,” Japan Times quoted Li Xi as saying.

SCMP quoted Zhang Chi, an associate professor at the National Defence University in the mainland, as saying the PLA was simulating blockading Taiwan.

“Once it is besieged and blocked, it can easily lead to economic collapse and become a dead island. This time, the PLA’s exercise focused on practicing the new model of blockade,” he said.

“The exercise has the intention to strangle Kaohsiung port, Taiwan’s maritime gateway, and it could be a heavy blow to Taiwan’s foreign trade. This exercise shows that the PLA can firmly trap the Taiwan authorities’ navy in the port,” he added.

Taiwan’s defence ministry condemned the drills, saying that it had dispatched forces to areas around the island, that its air defences and land-based missile forces were tracking targets, and that it was confident it could protect its territory.

“The launch of military exercises on this occasion not only does not contribute to the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, it also highlights (China’s) militaristic mentality,” the ministry said.

Taiwan’s presidential office expressed regret that China was threatening the island’s democratic freedoms and regional peace and stability with its “unilateral military provocations”, but said people could rest assured Taiwan could ensure its security.

China’s state broadcaster CCTV said Lai’s inauguration speech was “extremely harmful” and China’s countermeasures are “legitimate, legal and necessary”.

Lai’s speech was a confession of a desire for Taiwan independence and undermined peace and stability across the strait, it said.

Taiwan’s future can only be decided by China’s 1.4 billion people, not just Taiwan’s 23 million people, it added.

What does it mean for Taipei?

Analysts told the BBC such tactics look to wear out an enemy over a long time – which is exactly what Beijing is attempting with Taiwan.

They said Beijing is sending Lai a clear signal – that it could take the island anytime it wanted.

BBC’s China correspondent Stephen McDonell wrote that Beijing was sending a message that “if we wanted to, we could blockade that place. So we could stop supplies getting in and essentially, potentially force the government to its knees.”

“It is a warning to Lai,” Song Zhongping, a mainland military commentator and former PLA instructor told SCMP. “It is not the first time the PLA did so, but this time it is more severe.”

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Al Jazeera, “The PRC evidently decided to wait until he [Lai] delivered his inaugural address and then determine their response.”

“It’s clear that Beijing strongly objects to what they view as an attempt to develop a comprehensive ‘Taiwan independence’ narrative with the goal of altering the nature of cross-strait relations. I expect that they will roll out a series of military, political, and economic measures over the coming weeks and months.”

Wen-ti Sung, a specialist in Taiwan and China and a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said this could merely be the beginning.

“This round of military drills is code-named ‘Joint Sword-2024A’,” Wen-ti told Al Jazeera. “The suffix ‘A’ suggests there may be future rounds B, and possibly C. Beijing is showing muscle in the immediate wake of Lai’s presidential inauguration to unmistakably signal Beijing’s displeasure. But this is the ‘signal’. The real ‘punishment’ is yet to come.”

Tong Zhen, a research fellow at the Academy of Military Sciences of the PLA, told the Global Times this was part of a comprehensive plan to cover Taiwan and its outlying islands.

“To the west of the main island of Taiwan, the main operations are being held in waters around Wuqiu and Dongyin islands, while to the east of the main island of Taiwan, joint forces are organized to carry out sea and land assault drills, showing that the PLA has the ability to strike all directions of the island without any blind spots, forming a situation where the island is pinned down from both sides,” Tong said.

This is the first time the mainland’s coast guard vessels have entered waters around Wuqiu and Dongyin islands, Tong said.

The move, designed to serve as strong deterrence and warning destroyed the notion of so-called restricted waters imposed by the island of Taiwan, Tong added.

According to NDTV, the development makes things more difficult for the new regime.

This comes as Opposition lawmakers are changing a law aimed at restricting it. This has led to thousands of people taking to the streets – protests that are set to resume Friday.

A senior Taiwan official, speaking anonymously given the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters that the drills are part of a scenario Taiwan had anticipated and that the island’s government had a “comprehensive grasp” of Chinese military movements.

Taiwanese officials had said in the run-up to the inauguration they were keeping watch for Chinese military movements. China last staged large-scale war games near Taiwan in 2023 and 2022.

The drills focus on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrols, precision strikes on key targets, and integrated operations inside and outside the island chain to test the “joint real combat capabilities” of the forces, China’s military said.

Chinese state media published a map of the drill zones, in five areas all around Taiwan and the islands Taiwan controls near the Chinese coast.

Taiwanese officials told Reuters those areas were outside Taiwan’s contiguous zone, which is 24 nautical miles from the main island’s coast.

One of the officials said China has not announced any no-fly zones, nor has Taiwan observed any large-scale movements of China’s ground and rocket forces.

Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at Taiwan’s top military think tank, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, said that although the drills would only last two days, the scope is large relative to previous exercises, as they included Taiwan’s outlying islands.

This is designed to demonstrate China’s ability to control the seas and prevent the involvement of foreign forces, he said.

“The political signals here are greater than the military ones,” he added.

Taiwan shrugs off drills

There was no sign of alarm in Taiwan, where people are long used to Chinese military activity.

BBC reported that the exercises went nearly ‘completely unnoticed.’

“Once again there is a collective shrug. Many will tell you they are not worried. But that is not quite true. People are worried, but there is a sense of powerlessness – and worrying about it is of little help. The government and military are considerably more worried, not least because each year the drills are getting bigger and more dangerous,” the BBC reported.

The benchmark stock index, currently running at historic highs, was up 0.2 per cent on Thursday.

“The drills will have a short-term psychological impact, but won’t reverse the long-term upward trend of Taiwan stocks,” said Mega International Investment Services vice president Alex Huang.

A central bank official told Reuters the foreign exchange market was operating as normal, with no abnormal entry or exit of foreign capital.

In August 2022, China launched live-fire military exercises around Taiwan immediately after a visit, much condemned by Beijing, by former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi.

That series of exercises, the scale of which was unprecedented, lasted for four days, followed by several days of additional drills.

With inputs from agencies