Tourist boycotts and seafood ban… The heavy price Japan is paying over Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks

They are two of Asia’s biggest countries and tensions between the two are rising day-by-day, causing concern for the people of the region. We are talking about China and Japan, who are locked in a new battle — the latest in a long, uneasy relationship shaped by rivalry, history and strategic mistrust.

The most recent spat between China and Japan has resulted in Tokyo facing diplomatic and economic retaliation from the Asian Dragon — Beijing told its citizens not to travel to Japan, Japanese movies have been pulled from theatres, and Japanese media reported China was preparing to ban Japanese seafood.

As the tensions continue to rise between the two nations, we take a closer look at what exactly is going on and if Tokyo can beat out China’s pressures.

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China and Japan’s latest sparring match

The latest flashpoint between the two Asian nations has emerged over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments pertaining to Taiwan. On November 7, the China hawk speaking to a parliamentary committee, said that a Chinese naval blockade or other action against Taiwan could be grounds for a Japanese military response. “If it involves the use of warships and military actions, it could by all means become a survival-threatening situation,” she said.

Previous prime ministers have expressed concern about China’s threat to Taiwan and said that Taiwan’s stability is vital to Japan’s own security. But they haven’t publicly specified how Tokyo would respond in the event of a Taiwan contingency, instead embracing “strategic ambiguity.”

And unsurprisingly, it evoked strong reactions from Beijing, which maintains that “Taiwan is a province of China” and that the “One China” principle is a red line in relations with any country. In fact, following Takaichi’s remarks, Xue Jian, the Chinese consul general in Osaka, posted on X: “The filthy head that recklessly sticks itself in must be cut off without a moment’s hesitation. Are you prepared for that?”

This, in turn, resulted in condemnation from Tokyo with Takaichi refusing to retract her remarks, but adding that she would avoid talking about specific scenarios in the future.

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China seeks to punish Japan

Following the war of words, it seems China is looking to make an example of Takaichi and Japan. The Xi Jinping-led country has begun to impose punitive measures on Japan, which, in turn, is hurting Tokyo’s trade and travel.

First, China launched an eight-day live-fire drill in the Yellow Sea. Its coast guard vessels also continued patrolling around the disputed Diaoyu Islands, known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands.

If that wasn’t enough, Beijing warned its citizens to avoid travel to Japan. This has already resulted in an estimated 500,000 flights to Japan being cancelled, dealing a blow to airlines, hotels and the wider tourism sector. China also released an overseas study alert, warning students about recent crimes against Chinese in Japan, though it didn’t advise them not to go.

The Financial Times reports that staff at four separate Chinese state-owned enterprises in Shanghai and Zhejiang and Hunan provinces said managers had told them to cancel all trips to Japan over the dispute. Also, scheduled tours for prospective Chinese students to a number of major Japanese universities have also been suspended.

The Beijing-Tokyo Forum, an annual meeting of scholars from both countries that was scheduled to start in Beijing last Saturday, was also deferred — a first since it was launched in 2005. When asked about the same, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said: “I would note that the recent provocative remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding the Taiwan region have seriously undermined the political foundation of China-Japan relations and worsened public sentiment between the two countries.”

Chinese film distributors have also suspended screening of at least two Japanese films, with state broadcaster CCTV saying was a “prudent decision”. As a result, some Japanese films, including the animated Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! Scorching Kasukabe Dancers and manga-turned-movie Cells at Work!, originally slated for release in the coming weeks, will not begin screening in mainland China as scheduled, CCTV said, citing checks with film importers and distributors. Animated film Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle has also seen a drop in viewership after Takaichi’s remarks.

And on Wednesday (November 19), China suspended imports of Japanese seafood, just months after it partly lifted a previous ban issued in 2023. The previous ban was imposed in response to Japan’s decision to release wastewater from the damaged and decommissioned Fukushima nuclear plant.

Moreover, Mao Ning, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, said that Premier Li Qiang “has no arrangement to meet with the Japanese leader” during the upcoming Group of 20 summit in South Africa.

Too heavy a price to pay for Japan

But what will the impact of China’s punitive measures? Beijing’s series of harsh measures are expected to hit Japan’s trade and travel industry, thus, hurting its economy.

By urging Chinese tourists to cancel out Japan from their travel plans, Beijing is looking to hurt Tokyo’s economy. Tourism accounts for around seven per cent of the country’s overall gross domestic product, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, and has been a major driver of growth in recent years. And visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong account for around a fifth of all arrivals, official figures show.

Nomura Research Institute has estimated that a Chinese tourist boycott could result in a loss of around 1.49 trillion yen (US$9.59 billion) over the next year. The figure is based on an estimated 25 per cent decline in the number of mainland Chinese visitors over the next 12 months, in line with the decline seen in 2012 when Beijing issued a similar call following the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the disputed Diaoyu Islands – known as the Senkakus in Japan – in the East China Sea.

Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report states that Japan could lose out on as much as $1.2 billion in visitor spending between now and the end of the year owing to the Chinese travellers’ boycott.

But it’s not just the tourism industry that will be impacted by China’s punitive steps. Banning Japanese seafood imports will also land Tokyo in choppy waters. That’s because before the 2023 ban, the Chinese market – including Hong Kong – accounted for more than one-fifth of Japan’s exports.

A possible blowback for China

Most China-Japan watchers note that Beijing’s moves are a part of their old playbook. However, they add that these measures could also work against China.

As David Arase, resident professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre, told South China Morning Post that Beijing’s approach could be viewed by some countries as part of its so-called Wolf Warrior diplomacy – a reference to Beijing’s combative rhetoric against other countries – and the “orchestrated use of military threats, diplomacy, economic coercion, political sanctions and cognitive warfare”. “This latest episode of Wolf Warrior diplomacy may only deepen perceptions that China is a bully and a threat to regional peace and stability,” he said.

Mong Cheung, a professor at the school of international liberal studies at Waseda University in Tokyo, concurred with this sentiment. He warned that the actions could worsen perceptions of China by its neighbours and harm the nation’s international image. “I think this approach is counterproductive and ineffective,” he was quoted as saying by South China Morning Post.

With inputs from agencies