Canada’s Justin Trudeau survives first no-confidence vote. Why his government isn’t secure still

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government escaped a no-confidence vote this week, a critical test for his leadership after nine years in power.

Despite slipping popularity due to mounting economic concerns, Trudeau secured enough parliamentary support to stay in office.

However, the future remains fraught with political challenges as opposition parties, particularly the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois, prepare for renewed attempts to topple his government.

How did Trudeau survive the no-confidence vote?

On Wednesday, Trudeau’s government faced a no-confidence motion brought forward by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. The motion was part of a broader Conservative effort to push for early elections, arguing that Trudeau’s government had failed to address rising costs of living, the housing crisis, and an increase in crime.

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The vote took place amid a tense parliamentary session where Poilievre lambasted the prime minister, accusing him of overseeing “a broken Canada” and doubling the national debt.

“Why can’t we bring it home today?” Poilievre asked during question period, reiterating his pledges to “axe the [carbon] tax, build the homes, fix the budget, and stop the crime” should the Conservatives form the next government.

Despite the heated rhetoric, Trudeau’s government emerged victorious, with 211 MPs voting against the motion and 120 supporting it. The two Green MPs and two Independent MPs voted against the motion, while two other Independent MPs sided with the Conservatives.

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“I believe today we will see that this House does not have confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party,” Trudeau quipped during the debate, countering Poilievre’s slogans by accusing him of lacking actual solutions.

This was the first major vote of the fall parliamentary session and also marked the first time the Liberals faced a confidence motion without the solid backing of the New Democratic Party (NDP).

The NDP had previously agreed to support Trudeau’s government under a 2022 supply-and-confidence agreement, but they recently withdrew their backing due to concerns that their association with the Liberals was hurting their own political standing.

Who holds the balance of power in Ottawa?

Though the Liberals survived this vote, Trudeau’s government remains vulnerable as opposition forces regroup. Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet has issued a stark ultimatum, laying out key demands the government must meet to secure his party’s continued support.

Specifically, the Bloc demands the passage of two pieces of legislation: Bill C-319, which would increase Old Age Security (OAS) benefits by 10 per cent for seniors aged 65-74, and Bill C-282, which would protect supply-managed farm sectors — such as dairy, poultry, and eggs — from future trade negotiations. The deadline for these actions is set for October 29, reported CBC News.

Blanchet warned that if the government fails to meet these demands, the Bloc will engage in talks with the Conservatives and NDP to orchestrate the fall of Trudeau’s administration.

However, he softened his stance by noting that if the government complies, the Bloc would refrain from voting against the Liberals before Christmas, essentially guaranteeing Trudeau’s survival into the new year.

“What we are proposing is good for retired persons in Quebec but also in Canada. It’s good for milk, eggs, and poultry producers in Quebec but also in Canada. That’s good for everybody,” said Blanchet, highlighting the national benefit of the Bloc’s legislative demands.

Despite the threats, analysts believe it is unlikely that the government will fall before 2025, when the next scheduled federal election is due.

“We are going to work piece of legislation by piece of legislation, issue by issue, negotiating with the different political parties,” said Karina Gould, the Liberal House Leader, following the vote.

Why haven’t the Conservatives been able to topple Trudeau’s government?

While the Liberals won this vote, the Conservatives have not given up their quest for a snap election. The party plans to introduce another no-confidence motion next week, taking advantage of their allotted opposition days.

The Conservatives have three more such opportunities before the House rises for the Christmas break, while the Bloc and NDP each have one opposition day of their own.

Poilievre and the Conservatives are buoyed by a strong lead in opinion polls. According to an Angus Reid poll, the Conservatives currently hold 43 per cent of voting intentions, while the Liberals lag far behind at 21 per cent. The NDP holds 19 per cent.

Such numbers have emboldened the Conservatives, who believe that an early election would result in a majority government under Poilievre’s leadership. “Enough is enough. Costs are up, taxes are up, crime is up, and time is up,” the Conservatives declared in a post-vote statement.

However, the challenge for Poilievre lies in rallying enough cross-party support to bring down the government. Both the NDP and Bloc have signalled reluctance to align fully with the Conservatives. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, in particular, risks losing more ground if it backs a snap election, as recent polls show that the NDP would also struggle if elections were held today.

Is Trudeau’s government secure now?

Although Trudeau survived this vote, his government is far from secure. The next major test will likely come during a budgetary vote, which also functions as a matter of confidence. That vote is expected next week, and while most political observers anticipate the Liberals will survive, the government’s grip on power is precarious.

Poilievre has already vowed to keep trying, saying, “We’re going to keep pressing this issue. This government is out of touch, and Canadians deserve better.”

The New Democratic Party’s decision to terminate its formal cooperation with the Liberals further complicates Trudeau’s political future. While the NDP continues to support the government on a case-by-case basis, the once-stable coalition has been shattered, leaving Trudeau dependent on individual policy negotiations to pass legislation.

In the meantime, the Conservatives and Bloc are sharpening their strategies for what seems to be an inevitable push for elections.

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Trudeau himself acknowledged the struggles facing Canadians. During a recent appearance on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” the prime minister said, “People are hurting. People are having trouble paying for groceries, paying for rent, filling up the tank.”

He conceded that these economic hardships have led many to seek political change. But he insists that the solution is not to replace his government with one he accuses of “playing games” and offering “slogans without solutions.”

With Canada’s next scheduled federal election not due until October 2025, the months ahead promise continued political uncertainty.

According to University of Ottawa professor Genevieve Tellier, a weakened Trudeau administration will “find it more difficult to govern” as opposition parties keep the pressure on. While the harsh Canadian winter typically deters elections, Tellier tells AFP that “anything is possible. It could come before Christmas.”

With inputs from agencies