 "The number of Indian students heading to Canada has dropped sharply. File Photo/Representational")
Canadians will head to the polls on Monday, deciding whether to keep the Liberal Party in power for another term or to give the Conservatives a chance to lead.
The contest is between Prime Minister Mark Carney and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre.
Catch live updates from Canada’s federal election Here
However, it is not only Canadians who will be paying attention to the outcome. Many Indian students will also be watching closely.
In this explainer, we look at why Indian students are interested in the Canadian elections and what can be expected from the vote.
So, why will Indian students be watching how Canada votes?
Immigration policies
The number of Indian students heading to Canada has dropped sharply, with many affected by the real estate crisis, stricter immigration rules, and tensions between New Delhi and Ottawa.
Data from the Bureau of Immigration shows that the total number of Indians studying in Canada, the UK, and the US fell by 164,370 within a year.
Canada saw the biggest fall, with numbers dropping by 41%, from 233,532 in 2023 to 137,608 in 2024.
The sharp fall in Indian students choosing Canada comes at a time of diplomatic tensions between Ottawa and Delhi. Relations worsened in September 2023, after former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of being involved in the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
After this, India withdrew security protection for Canadian diplomats, which led Canada to recall 41 of its diplomats from India.
During this period, Canada also made its visa and student permit rules tougher. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) brought in new rules giving officials more authority to cancel study and work permits under certain conditions.
Now, Indian students who are already in Canada, or planning to go, are watching the elections closely, as the country’s immigration policies directly affect students, workers, and families.
Indian students in Canada mostly take up courses in Stem (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), agriculture and agri-food, healthcare, trade, and transport. Many of these skilled programmes include a co-op or internship, giving students the chance to gain practical experience.
Canada remains one of the top four countries Indian students choose for overseas education, along with the US, UK, and Australia.
According to several study abroad consultants in Punjab who spoke to CBC News, interest in Canada as a study destination among Indian students is falling sharply.
Dilraj Singh from Punjab, who once hoped to study in Canada, told CBC News he has now given up on that dream.
“Students are really suffering in Canada for getting jobs,” he said.
Donald Trump’s immigration policies
As US President Donald Trump takes a tougher approach towards international students, Canada could once again become a more popular choice for Indian students.
Experts told The Economic Times that if the Trump administration scraps the Optional Practical Training (OPT) benefit, Canada could turn into the top destination for Indian students going abroad.
Top-ranked universities in the US charge about $70,000 (around Rs 60 lakh) per year for a single course, which is much higher compared to CAD60,000 in Canada (around Rs 36 lakh).
Vaibhav Gupta, chief marketing officer at iSchoolConnect, a study abroad platform, told ET that Indian students may start choosing Canada again only if there are major policy changes to welcome foreign students.
Saurabh Arora, CEO of University Living, a global student housing platform, told Business Standard, “…With the significant contribution of Indians to Canada’s economy, around CAD 13–14 billion annually from Indian students alone, India’s importance cannot be ignored. Also, Punjabi is now the third-most spoken language in Canada.”
Mark Carney vs Pierre Poilievre on immigration
Carney has close ties with the Century Initiative, a think tank that wants Canada’s population to reach 100 million by the year 2100. Immigration policies under his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, were also heavily shaped by the Century Initiative.
So far, Carney has not clearly said he would lower immigration numbers.
Darshan Maharaja, a Canada-based immigration analyst, told Business Standard, “If Carney wins the election, Indians aspiring to immigrate to Canada would find it easier to do so.”
Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre has said he would shape immigration policies based on the availability of housing, healthcare, and jobs.
He has also been highly critical of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. “We will crack down on fraud and dramatically reduce the number of temporary foreign workers and foreign students,” he said at a campaign event.
Canada federal elections
Canadians are heading to the polls as the country deals with the aftermath of a deadly car ramming attack that took place on Saturday in Vancouver.
A record 7.3 million Canadians cast their votes before election day.
Before US President Trump won a second term and started threatening Canada’s economy and sovereignty, even suggesting it should become the 51st state, the Liberals appeared to be on course for a defeat.
Trump’s actions also caused problems for Poilievre and the Conservative Party, who, only a few months ago, looked set for an easy win.
Notably, Trump’s confrontational approach has angered many Canadians, leading some to cancel holidays to the US, avoid buying American products, and possibly vote early.
Whoever becomes prime minister will face many challenges. Both Carney and Poilievre have said they would move quickly to renegotiate a free trade deal with the US in an effort to end the uncertainty affecting both economies.
With inputs from agencies