Can Russia’s flaunting of ‘doomsday’ nuclear weapons impact Western support for Ukraine?

This year, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reminded everyone that Moscow has the world’s largest atomic arsenal to prevent the West from increasing its support for Ukraine.

Putin ordered his military to carry out drills involving battlefield nuclear weapons with ally Belarus. He also declared that Russia would start building ground-based intermediate-range missiles that were banned by a now-defunct US-Soviet treaty in 1987.

Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine last month to lower the threshold for deploying its nuclear arsenal. He views these thousands of warheads and hundreds of missiles as an enormous doomsday machine to NATO’s conventional military superiority, aimed at discouraging threats to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Here’s a look at Russia’s atomic arsenal and the concerns around it:

Strategic weapons in Russia

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia holds around 5,580 nuclear warheads, both deployed and non-deployed, while the US has 5,044. Together, these two countries account for around 88% of the world’s nuclear weapons.

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The majority of these warheads are strategic, intercontinental-range weapons. Like the US, Russia maintains a nuclear triad comprising ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), long-range bombers, and submarines armed with ICBMs.

Since Vladimir Putin assumed power in 2000, the Kremlin has focused on upgrading the Soviet-era components of its nuclear triad. This has included deploying hundreds of new land-based missiles, commissioning new nuclear submarines, and modernising nuclear-capable bombers.

Russia’s nuclear modernisation efforts have also influenced the US, leading it to launch a costly revamp of its own nuclear arsenal.

Russia has upgraded its land-based strategic missile forces by equipping them with mobile Yars ICBMs and recently started deploying the heavy, silo-based Sarmat ICBMs - referred to as “Satan II” in the West. The Sarmat is expected to replace about 40 older Soviet-built R-36M missiles, though it has only had one confirmed successful test and reportedly experienced a failure during a trial last month.

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Meanwhile, the Russian navy has added seven new Borei-class nuclear-powered submarines, each capable of carrying 16 Bulava nuclear missiles. These submarines are set to become the backbone of the naval component of Russia’s nuclear triad, alongside a few remaining Soviet-era nuclear subs. Plans are also in place to build five more Borei-class submarines.

Russia still relies on Soviet-era Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers, which carry nuclear-armed cruise missiles. Production of the supersonic Tu-160, which was halted after the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, has been restarted, with Moscow aiming to produce several dozen upgraded versions with new engines and avionics.

Non-strategic nuclear weapons in Russia

The US estimates that Russia has between 1,000 and 2,000 non-strategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons, designed for battlefield use. These are generally far less powerful than strategic warheads capable of destroying entire cities.

Russia’s arsenal includes high-precision Iskander missiles, which have a range of up to 500 kilometres (310 miles) and can be armed with either conventional or nuclear warheads. The air force also uses MiG-31 fighter jets equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which can carry either type of warhead. Conventional versions of both the Iskander and Kinzhal have been widely used by Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine.

In May, as part of its nuclear messaging, Russia and Belarus held drills to train their forces in the use of battlefield nuclear weapons. This took place shortly after Putin began his fifth term in office.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine

For decades, both Moscow and Washington have adhered to the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which states that the threat of overwhelming retaliation prevents either side from launching a nuclear attack.

Russia’s 2020 nuclear doctrine specified that nuclear weapons could be used in response to a nuclear strike or a conventional attack that threatens “the very existence of the Russian state.” Some Moscow criticised the doctrine for being too vague, urging Putin to toughen it.

Last month, Putin issued a warning to the US and NATO allies, stating that if Ukraine were allowed to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory, it would draw NATO into a direct conflict with Russia. He reinforced this stance by announcing a new nuclear doctrine that considers the circumstances under which Russia could use nuclear weapons.

The revised doctrine considers a conventional attack on Russia by a non-nuclear nation, supported by a nuclear power, as a joint assault on Russia - a clear warning to the US and its allies.

Putin also revealed that the updated doctrine allows for nuclear retaliation in the event of a large-scale air attack, leaving open the possibility of a nuclear response to any aerial assault.

According to Heather Williams, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, these changes suggest that Russia “is doubling down on its strategy of relying on nuclear weapons for coercive purposes.”

The future for arms control

The 2010 New START US-Russian arms reduction treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between the countries, limits each nation to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers. This treaty is set to expire in 2026.

However, in February 2023, Putin suspended Russia’s participation in the treaty, although he pledged that Russia would still adhere to its limits.

In July, Putin announced that Russia would begin producing ground-based intermediate-range missiles, which were previously banned under the now-defunct US-Soviet INF Treaty of 1987. This treaty banned missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometres (310 to 3,410 miles). Putin defended this by saying Russia will respond in kind to the planned deployment of US intermediate-range missiles to Germany, taking steps to “mirror” Washington’s move.

Amid heightened tensions between the US and Russia over the war in Ukraine, Washington has called for renewed dialogue on nuclear arms control. However, Putin has dismissed the offer, arguing that negotiations are meaningless while the US continues its efforts to strategically weaken Russia through the conflict in Ukraine.

Nuclear testing to resume?

Within Russia, several hawkish voices are calling for the resumption of nuclear testing to send a message to the West and deter further support for Kyiv. Putin has stated that Russia would only resume nuclear testing if the US does so first, which would break a longstanding global ban in place since the end of the Cold War.

Last month, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov indicated that Russia’s nuclear test site on the Arctic archipelago of Novaya Zemlya is ready to conduct tests if the US resumes its testing program.

New weapons for Russia?

The Russian President, in 2018, unveiled a new set of advanced weapons, claiming they would render any future US missile defence systems ineffective.

Among them is the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, capable of flying at speeds 27 times faster than the speed of sound and performing sharp manoeuvres to evade enemy missile shields. These units have already been deployed.

Putin also mentioned the Poseidon underwater drone, a nuclear-armed, atomic-powered device intended to detonate near coastlines and trigger a radioactive tsunami. Earlier this year, he announced that Poseidon’s testing was nearing completion, though he did not provide specific details.

In addition, Russia is working on a nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Burevestnik (also known as Petrel), a concept dating back to the Cold War. However, experts remain sceptical due to technological and radiation safety concerns. A test in 2019 resulted in an explosion at a naval range in the White Sea, killing five engineers and two servicemen, and causing a temporary spike in radiation levels.

Putin has said this year that Burevestnik is in its final stages of development, and reports suggest that the Russian military has constructed a base for these missiles in the Vologda region of northwestern Russia.

With inputs from AP